Gooner comment

[Bluesiam]

I think you and I have had this argument before haven't we Moomba? (Maybe it was someone else?)

Yes, you get unexpected results. But you also get patterns and trends and to say previous results mean nothing is frankly utter bollocks. The entire world works off forecasts based on previous performance. That's how it works. Probabilities and expectations - not absolutes - but nevertheless important indicators, based on previous results.

If you ignored this, you might predict Stoke to win the league next year.

Think this is nonsense when talking sport,(over a hanful of games ) but isn't a 13 game trend more informative than an eight game trend if your using it to predict future results ?

Maybe a 13 game winning trend means their good run is more likely to end sooner??? Let's face it, confidence is a huge asset when you're up, but it when it goes, it goes down faster than George Michael in an LA bog.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I gave up when you started comparing football to world trends

The only probability is that the better team 'should' win, thats all. Nothing to do with previous performance as if that was the case Chelsea would have steam-rolled Villa after hitting 4 past Spurs the week before, and us getting beat by Wigan then week later winning at Hull with 10 men.

Football, especially in the premier league is totally unique hence why it is so popular

If you think stats have no part to play in predicting football outcomes, you are mistaken. /end of debate.

Correct they do have a part to play in football, funnily enough these stats usually seem to favour the better team.

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

-- Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:54 pm --

Was the Rag loving Gooner "Alister" something? That twat genuinely believes Lauren koscielny is better than Kompany. Even the Rags laugh at him over that one, he's a huge brown nosed prick. Almost as big a creep as that EssexRob cnut that posts on there.

That's the guy, "Alastair".

You do have to wonder about people who seem to spend more time on opposing fans' forums than their own. I confess go on there from time to time to get some laughs about wee Davey, it really is comedy gold. But I have no interest in debating with the mongs, and in fact I can't since I was banned for trolling over there. And I am hardly there day in, day out like some of the losers.

 

[blueparrot]

If you think stats have no part to play in predicting football outcomes, you are mistaken. /end of debate.

Correct they do have a part to play in football, funnily enough these stats usually seem to favour the better team.

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

In general you can use past results to predict who will be competing at the top over a season, but you can't use them to predict who will win all their next 8 games and who will lose 1 or 2 that is too unpredictable. And who using previous results would have predicted Liverpool being so close to the top of the league this season ?

 

[chris85mcfc]

If you think stats have no part to play in predicting football outcomes, you are mistaken. /end of debate.

Correct they do have a part to play in football, funnily enough these stats usually seem to favour the better team.

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

I'm just lost as to why your arguing the point about stats, patterns and trends in football and why they work.

Of course they 'work'. I mean do you really need to look at stats, trends and probabilites to learn that City should beat Fulham at home on Saturday?<br /><br />-- Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:02 pm --<br /><br />

Correct they do have a part to play in football, funnily enough these stats usually seem to favour the better team.

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

In general you can use past results to predict who will be competing at the top over a season, but you can't use them to predict who will win all their next 8 games and who will lose 1 or 2 that is too unpredictable. And who using previous results would have predicted Liverpool being so close to the top of the league this season ?

Bingo.

Stats tell you what 'should' happen. They will probably tell you that we will be favourites to win each individual game between now and the end of the season, but that doesn't mean its going to happen.

Chelsea 'should' have beat Villa
We 'should' have beat Wigan

 

[Chippy_boy]

Correct they do have a part to play in football, funnily enough these stats usually seem to favour the better team.

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

I'm just lost as to why your arguing the point about stats, patterns and trends in football and why they work.

Of course they 'work'. I mean do you really need to look at stats, trends and probabilites to learn that City should beat Fulham at home on Saturday?

-- Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:02 pm --

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

In general you can use past results to predict who will be competing at the top over a season, but you can't use them to predict who will win all their next 8 games and who will lose 1 or 2 that is too unpredictable. And who using previous results would have predicted Liverpool being so close to the top of the league this season ?

Bingo.

Stats tell you what 'should' happen. They will probably tell you that we will be favourites to win each individual game between now and the end of the season, but that doesn't mean its going to happen.

Chelsea 'should' have beat Villa
We 'should' have beat Wigan

Unbingo.

Can you not understand the word "probability", ffs???! It's not hard.

Oh, and "beaten" by the way. We should have beaten Wigan.

 

[Carver]

From season form, City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, with Liverpool ahead of Arsenal only on goal difference.

From recent form City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool

This is according to Football365. I don't what they consider 'recent' but we have the best recent league form. Lets hope that form continues as it is until the end of the season. It also reckons that we will win on 84/85 points , I know it's competitive but that seems a bit low.

<a class="postlink" href="http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/PR/runin.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/PR/runin.html</a>

Each club has 2 games against the other 3 top teams, City have 2 away, Liverpool have 2 at home with the other 2 sides one home and one away. So obviously, Liverpool have a chance to upset the apple cart a bit.

Apologies, from recent form the prediction is City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal.
Form works out at City 2.3 points per game, Liverpool 2.5, Chelsea 2.1, Arsenal 1.7, this is roughly the last 7 or 8 games.
Although Liverpool have better form they work out that we would win it due to our form and the number of games left, they predict that we will get 4 or 5 points from the 2 games in hand (Obviously we can't get 5 points but we can get 6 points from 3 games and they get 1 point from 1 game).

 

[steviemc]

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

I'm just lost as to why your arguing the point about stats, patterns and trends in football and why they work.

Of course they 'work'. I mean do you really need to look at stats, trends and probabilites to learn that City should beat Fulham at home on Saturday?

-- Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:02 pm --

In general you can use past results to predict who will be competing at the top over a season, but you can't use them to predict who will win all their next 8 games and who will lose 1 or 2 that is too unpredictable. And who using previous results would have predicted Liverpool being so close to the top of the league this season ?

Bingo.

Stats tell you what 'should' happen. They will probably tell you that we will be favourites to win each individual game between now and the end of the season, but that doesn't mean its going to happen.

Chelsea 'should' have beat Villa
We 'should' have beat Wigan

Unbingo.

Can you not understand the word "probability", ffs???! It's not hard.

Let's take the stats back 10 years. In the last 10 years a team that has been leading on points after 29 games has gone on to win the title - except one, which was us in our title winning season. If we think that stats give us much of an insight, this one clearly demonstrates that the PL winners are unlikely to be Liverpool.

There are so many anomalies throughout a football season, you can pick and choose which stats fit your argument. Bookies change the odds throughout the season for precisely this reason.

 

[jimharri]

I read this post from a gooner just now over on Sad Cafe:

Our biggest chance is the cup, really.

I just think Liverpool might fall short by a few points. Chelsea are still favourites and City have a hard run-in so they might drop to 4th.

I was a bit shocked because I have been so focused on whether we will win it, or come 2nd to Chelsea. I hadn't even considered the possibility that we might drop down the table.

What's your thoughts on this? Is it conceivable we could finish 4th? What would be the ramifications if we did? Should there be any?

 

[chris85mcfc]

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

I'm just lost as to why your arguing the point about stats, patterns and trends in football and why they work.

Of course they 'work'. I mean do you really need to look at stats, trends and probabilites to learn that City should beat Fulham at home on Saturday?

-- Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:02 pm --

In general you can use past results to predict who will be competing at the top over a season, but you can't use them to predict who will win all their next 8 games and who will lose 1 or 2 that is too unpredictable. And who using previous results would have predicted Liverpool being so close to the top of the league this season ?

Bingo.

Stats tell you what 'should' happen. They will probably tell you that we will be favourites to win each individual game between now and the end of the season, but that doesn't mean its going to happen.

Chelsea 'should' have beat Villa
We 'should' have beat Wigan

Unbingo.

Can you not understand the word "probability", ffs???! It's not hard.

Oh, and "beaten" by the way. We should have beaten Wigan.

This was your original post that I commented on...

I think you and I have had this argument before haven't we Moomba? (Maybe it was someone else?)

Yes, you get unexpected results. But you also get patterns and trends and to say previous results mean nothing is frankly utter bollocks. The entire world works off forecasts based on previous performance. That's how it works. Probabilities and expectations - not absolutes - but nevertheless important indicators, based on previous results.

If you ignored this, you might predict Stoke to win the league next year.

Are you seriously telling me that someone has argued with you that the probabilities of a football match don't mean anything.

You are right that previous results and performances will generate a forecast, if this forecast turns out to be correct more often than not then it starts to format a trend.

But like I said you will find that these trends will point to the better team winning the match, thats not rocket science and surely isn't something that someone should argue the toss about. But you've made it sound as tho you are the second coming because you do back these 'trends'.

Sounds to me like you've got a degree in maths or perhaps business, but a D minus in common sense.

 

[Chippy_boy]

What's your point? Of course they favour the better team. The better teams win more often and the stats and projections detect and predict that. It's entirely to be expected.

I'm just lost as to why your arguing the point about stats, patterns and trends in football and why they work.

Of course they 'work'. I mean do you really need to look at stats, trends and probabilites to learn that City should beat Fulham at home on Saturday?

-- Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:02 pm --



Bingo.

Stats tell you what 'should' happen. They will probably tell you that we will be favourites to win each individual game between now and the end of the season, but that doesn't mean its going to happen.

Chelsea 'should' have beat Villa
We 'should' have beat Wigan

Unbingo.

Can you not understand the word "probability", ffs???! It's not hard.

Let's take the stats back 10 years. In the last 10 years a team that has been leading on points after 29 games has gone on to win the title - except one, which was us in our title winning season. If we think that stats give us much of an insight, this one clearly demonstrates that the PL winners are unlikely to be Liverpool.

There are so many anomalies throughout a football season, you can pick and choose which stats fit your argument. Bookies change the odds throughout the season for precisely this reason.

No-one (well only idiots) is suggesting that stats allow you to predict guaranteed, certain outcomes, especially in something as seemingly random as football. But perhaps you are struggling to understand (or to come to accept) that just because you can't predict things with certainty, predictions based on statistical analysis of previous results are not worthless.

Yes, they will be wrong sometimes. Often even. But they will more right more often than just random guesswork. That's all.