jimbopm
Well-Known Member
The Grand National, despite looking like a crap shoot has actually got some very distinctive trends for the race winner over the past 30/40 years. Most of the winners will have the majority of the following matches in their profile.
Age - Most likely to be 9/10/11 years old
Rating - Most likely to be over 135
Weight - Most likely to be 11st 5lb or lighter due to stamina (although there is a point of view i.e. with Many Clouds that recent reductions to the severity of the test in stamina and jumping may start bringing in higher weighted winners)
Distance - Most likely to have won over 3 miles at some stage previously
Calibre - Most likely to have won at least one race worth £13k to the winner.
Experience - Mostly likely to have at least 10 times over fences.
Don't be too concerned with the jockey on board or the trainer. McCoy only ever won it once, despite having a troupe of top calibre rides, Richard Johnson (many times 2nd best jockey) has never won it either. Nicholls has only won it once, as has Willie Mullins and Jonjo O'Neil. Henderson has never won it.
This is because for all of it's importance to punters and bookies, The National takes a back seat to Cheltenham in terms of prestige and class amongst the Trainers and Jockeys, so whilst many top trainers send horses to Aintree for a tilt at the national they've most probably already ran at Cheltenham or were not considered good enough to go there. Horses that are aimed and trained with specifically The National in mind tend to perform better.
Ofcourse, whittling down the 40 strong field using these trends still tends to leave you with about a dozen suitable horses to choose from, but it makes it a little less of a conundrum to solve.