Grand national

[RadcliffeRick]

Always guaranteed a few classy women there

 

[Garrinchas---Dog]

I'm balls deep on Shutthefrontdoor....I also backed Turban anti-post at big odds only for him to be scratched after Mullins paid the final entry fee,then pulled him out the following day???....he now runs in the Topham on Friday and I think he will win this,he was going well last year only to fall 3 out whilst distracted by a loose horse

 

[markbmcfc]

Knock out any runner older than 11 or younger than 9 (88% of last 17 winners were aged 9-11yo)
Knock out any runner that has run in the last 16 days or had a break of more than 56 days (100%)
Knock out any runner rated less than 136 (100%)
Knock out any runner carrying more than 11-06 (100%)
Knock out any runner that ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out (100%)
Knock out any runner with fewer than 3 starts this Season (100%)
Knock out any runner that has won more than 2 chase races this Season (100%)
Knock out any GB Bred runners (94%)
Knock out any runner that finished outside the top 8 last time out (88%)

This leaves:

The Druids Nephew
Holywell
Soll
Morning Assembly
Goonyella
Gallant Oscar
Just A Par
Ballycasey
Saint Are
The Romford Pele

Quite happy my principle fancies of The Druids Nephew, Goonyella, Saint Are and a speculative one on Soll are in the above list :)

Some good horses knocked out by that criteria though.

 

[Barney Daniels]

The quoted trends have to be rewritten whenever they don't match the winner, so the weight trend didn't apply last year as Many Clouds carried 11 09.

The race has changed completely in the last few years, higher rated horses are winning it and it has become a limited handicap with nothing carrying less than about 10 04.

That isn't to say it isn't still a great race, if anything it should be harder to pick the winner as there aren't anywhere near as many no hopers.

Hopefully all will come home safe and sound, otherwise my mate will get a load of grief from the media.

 

[pudge]

This leaves:

The Druids Nephew
Holywell
Soll
Morning Assembly
Goonyella
Gallant Oscar
Just A Par
Ballycasey
Saint Are
The Romford Pele

Quite happy my principle fancies of The Druids Nephew, Goonyella, Saint Are and a speculative one on Soll are in the above list :)

Some good horses knocked out by that criteria though.

I did that and was left with 10 horses as well but not Soll.

 

[Skanger my banger]

The druids nephew has won me a few Bob in the past so I'll stick something on that

 

[jimbopm]

The quoted trends have to be rewritten whenever they don't match the winner, so the weight trend didn't apply last year as Many Clouds carried 11 09.

The race has changed completely in the last few years, higher rated horses are winning it and it has become a limited handicap with nothing carrying less than about 10 04.

That isn't to say it isn't still a great race, if anything it should be harder to pick the winner as there aren't anywhere near as many no hopers.

Hopefully all will come home safe and sound, otherwise my mate will get a load of grief from the media.

I think there is something to this theory. As I alluded to in my earlier post, the race isn't as tough a test as it used to be. The race is now shorter by about 2 furlongs, and the fences are less severe. This naturally plays into the hands of the horses that are higher in the weights.

The statistics also bear this out aswell. In the last 10 runnings, 6 horses have carried 11st or more compared to 1 such winner in the 20 races prior to that.

 

[BlueNirvana]

What's No6 i just have No6 every year

 

[markbmcfc]

I did that and was left with 10 horses as well but not Soll.

Which stage did you rule him out?

 

[pudge]

Which stage did you rule him out?

Can't remember, Ballynagour is the one I had that's different.