Sorry if you are offended but let me remind you what you wrote:
“The point is that the price paid for a player (purchase fee, signing on bonus, agents fee, taxes etc.) doesn’t take any account of a ‘sell on’ fee because a sell on fee isn’t tangible / no reliance can be placed on one”.
So I ask you: how can you ignore residual value when it permeates the commercial world?
Take player X and player Y, identical in every respect except age. X is 25. Y is 30.
Which one has the higher transfer value? You’re inferring they’re the same. I’m saying X because the implicit sell-on opportunity is factored in.
You talk of reliance and intangibles. Well, as with any investment, everything about a transfer is a calculated gamble based on probability. The new player might turn to shit or get crocked tomorrow. Why is sell-on prospect any different, other than being further away in time?
I’ve been hard on you because you’ve been strident with financial assertions that have no place in any business world I’ve encountered.
I’ve worked on bids in the 100’s of millions,
I’m reasonably competent in Crystal Ball analysis, risk management is my stock in trade.
I’ll spell it out for you:
You buy or effectively lease a player for a term. The only value the leased item has is it’s cost on the books - generally the purchase cost + maintenance cost annualised so that a player with say £250M cost over 5 years has a £50M annual cost.
That asset has a value set against it on the books (in the P&L) which generally reduces, but sometimes increases (as the assets market value moves) but which always does inescapably ends up at £0 at the expiration of the contract.
You come across as being able to count your fingers so I can’t get what you don’t understand about that?
Tell me where I’m supposedly wrong or stop harassing me with puerile nonsense.
And for the record and your education, if we buy Haarland, or Kane or whoever, on say a 5 year contract, the contract we consider in the purchase arrangement is always completed in 5 years.
The age of the player doesn’t come into the equation (other than considering fitness for purpose), the cost of the player, the length of the contract and the players market value are the only factors but at the end of the term all players, it doesn’t matter who they are or how old they are or are not, are worth £0 in the books and also in practice.
If that doesn’t accord with business practices in your world then you’re living in a different reality.