How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

bluethrunthru said:
Henry - former UKIP leader - alighting upon the inevitable excuse - the idea is great its just the application that has failed

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Then putatively giving our politicIan’s more power over our lives was a mistake, wasn’t it? I’m genuinely astonished that anyone had any faith in our political class. That alone would be a good enough reason to vote remain. Embarrassingly naive doesn’t do it justice.
 
Elbow beards said:
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Carney raising this point highlights the scary ploughing on regardless by the Government and that anyone questioning brexit is some sort of traitor or loon. Reece-Mogg try’s to counter it blaming everything on covid and the Ukraine war, the trouble is non of these idiots can point at any benefit of what brexit has brought to the U.K. when we have sky high food prices, energy and interest rates rocketing up all the while we are looking at one of the longest recessions in history.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Then putatively giving our politicIan’s more power over our lives was a mistake, wasn’t it? I’m genuinely astonished that anyone had any faith in our political class. That alone would be a good enough reason to vote remain. Embarrassingly naive doesn’t do it justice.
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Good point. It was those politicians who have subsequently been shown to be incompetent that championed the idea that power be returned to the U.K. and, by extension, them. It’s akin to believing that City would be better if we were again run by a local businessman and managed by an English World Cup winner…
 
Gabriel said:
Good point. It was those politicians who have subsequently been shown to be incompetent that championed the idea that power be returned to the U.K. and, by extension, them. It’s akin to believing that City would be better if we were again run by a local businessman and managed by an English World Cup winner…
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Perfect analogy.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
They’ll let us back in, as long as we’re willing to pay the price.
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The Brexiters said the EU would be desperate to keep our contributions.

Let's assume that we're still rich enough to be net contributors and that each EU member state individually would see benefits in readmitting us (not just German car makers!) for the trade benefits. Why would they want Farage back as an MEP? Why would they want even a rump Tory party joining the other right wing parties not bothered about press and judicial freedom and human rights - aka why would they trust the British electorate to do the right thing?

But of course any sensible person would be willing to pay the price to get back in. After all, four weeks of one Tory PM cost the country more than six years of contributions since the referendum.
 
Remember when they said the rest of EU countries would soon exit and the EU was imminently going to collapse
 
Gabriel said:
Good point. It was those politicians who have subsequently been shown to be incompetent that championed the idea that power be returned to the U.K. and, by extension, them. It’s akin to believing that City would be better if we were again run by a local businessman and managed by an English World Cup winner…
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I think we should have a vote on that.

Imagine how much we could save and donate to the NHS.
 
Vic said:
The Brexiters said the EU would be desperate to keep our contributions.
Let's assume that we're still rich enough to be net contributors and that each EU member state individually would see benefits in readmitting us (not just German car makers!) for the trade benefits. Why would they want Farage back as an MEP? Why would they want even a rump Tory party joining the other right wing parties not bothered about press and judicial freedom and human rights - aka why would they trust the British electorate to do the right thing?
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The simple answer is that letting a contrite and more subservient UK back in, especially one that had gone through a painful divorce with Scotland and was prepared to sacrifice the pound, would bolster the status and endurance of the EU. It would make them look simultaneously benevolent and powerful; and us foolish for choosing to leave in the first place. That will be hard for member states to resist (after some hard negotiations).

The likes of Farage would have ultimately caused this subservience and the loss of the pound, which could attenuate, rather than amplify their voices. Careful what you wish for, Nige.

Sadly, we will have to fall much further, and become far more desperate for this to be remotely plausible.

Views can change profoundly and relatively quickly if the ingredients are correct. Assuming the vote would be 60/40 tomorrow to rejoin (which I think is about right), and the invisible hand of demographic change continues in the same direction, in a decade of so over two thirds of the UK population could realistically want us to rejoin. That number will also be difficult to resist, even if it means ditching the pound.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Remember when they said the rest of EU countries would soon exit and the EU was imminently going to collapse
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It either showed complete ignorance of reality or a deliberate willingness to lie. In recent years, many EU projects have focussed on integrating communities that lie along national borders. These are smaller, subtler projects that don’t attract much public attention but which slowly dissolve the borders in people’s minds and strengthen ties between peoples. It is a long-game project, and you can see from recent EU projects that more is being invested in the south and east, but that just means that in 20-30 years those areas will have become economically stronger.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
ec.europa.eu

The budgetary system of the European Union

Find an overview of the current and past EU budgetary system, plus funding opportunities, latest news, results, and figures from the budget department.
ec.europa.eu ec.europa.eu

Interesting and simple article explaining the EU Budget for those that are interested. Who wouldn't want to be part of that. It sounds brilliant!
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Pah! The devious creation of a United States of Europe…
 
Gabriel said:
It either showed complete ignorance of reality or a deliberate willingness to lie. In recent years, many EU projects have focussed on integrating communities that lie along national borders. These are smaller, subtler projects that don’t attract much public attention but which slowly dissolve the borders in people’s minds and strengthen ties between peoples. It is a long-game project, and you can see from recent EU projects that more is being invested in the south and east, but that just means that in 20-30 years those areas will have become economically stronger.
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People have been triumphantly predicting the demise of the EU and The Euro in particular for years. If you look across the Atlantic and see the huge divisions socially and politically in the US, that Federation is far more likely to fracture.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
People have been triumphantly predicting the demise of the EU and The Euro in particular for years. If you look across the Atlantic and see the huge divisions socially and politically in the US, that Federation is far more likely to fracture.
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True. Neither will fracture, in my humble. The sheer movement of people within the EU, especially young people- be that for study or leisure, is so ingrained now that it’s hard to see that trend of openness and integration being reversed.
 
Gabriel said:
True. Neither will fracture, in my humble. The sheer movement of people within the EU, especially young people- be that for study or leisure, is so ingrained now that it’s hard to see that trend of openness and integration being reversed.
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I think the more ossified nature of the US Constitution means, in terms of 2A and abortion (if it becomes unconstitutional) in particular, I can see States seceding from the US union within a generation.

As deaths from gun crime conttinue to inexorably rise, I can see some States, maybe California, maybe in the North East, saying we’ve had enough.

The military question is the big conundrum, and one EU states wouldn’t presently face.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
The simple answer is that letting a contrite and more subservient UK back in, especially one that had gone through a painful divorce with Scotland and was prepared to sacrifice the pound, would bolster the status and endurance of the EU. It would make them look simultaneously benevolent and powerful; and us foolish for choosing to leave in the first place. That will be hard for member states to resist (after some hard negotiations).

The likes of Farage would have ultimately caused this subservience and the loss of the pound, which could attenuate, rather than amplify their voices. Careful what you wish for, Nige.

Sadly, we will have to fall much further, and become far more desperate for this to be remotely plausible.

Views can change profoundly and relatively quickly if the ingredients are correct. Assuming the vote would be 60/40 tomorrow to rejoin (which I think is about right), and the invisible hand of demographic change continues in the same direction, in a decade of so over two thirds of the UK population could realistically want us to rejoin. That number will also be difficult to resist, even if it means ditching the pound.
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Would it be so.
Your scenario is based though on a politically engaged and relatively well educated electorate.
Another ten years of the media dripping poison into every ear and education standards being further eroded could well put paid to that.
I have no faith that if we had a vote in a months time that the electorate would vote to rejoin. The buses/Farage et all would be out in force again and would have a similar effect to last time.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
Would it be so.
Your scenario is based though on a politically engaged and relatively well educated electorate.
Another ten years of the media dripping poison into every ear and education standards being further eroded could well put paid to that.
I have no faith that if we had a vote in a months time that the electorate would vote to rejoin. The buses/Farage et all would be out in force again and would have a similar effect to last time.
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I think you are wrong for a number of reasons.

Firstly, it was 52/48 last time; this slim majority was caused principally by the apathy of the under 30s. That won’t happen again. I think any apathy will be more readily attributed to those that voted to leave, given how it’s turned out.

Secondly, the effluxion of time since 2016 means that many of the people who voted to leave have died and have been ‘replaced’ by those that will want to rejoin. I know that people become more conservative as they get older, but I’m not sure that will so readily apply here. Certainly I cannot see many people who voted remain being converted to thinking leaving was a good idea, which is what would have to occur for that maxim to remain the case here.

Thirdly, there is a tendency to characterise everyone as an obdurate leaver or remainer, but the truth is that many (maybe 10%) were highly equivocal and could see the benefits in both arguments. Any shifting pattern in those voters is only going to go one way.

Fourthly, the world, and Europe, was a far more certain place in 2016, and probably emboldened some people to throw the dice of isolationism in a way that they wouldn’t today in a post Covid world. The comfort blanket of the EU, in a Europe at war, would be persuasive to some.

All those factors, combined with the disaster that it‘s proving to be, and the weakening state of the UK economy means a majority vote to retain the status quo is inconceivable, irrespective of the gullible rump to which you refer, some of whom (although certainly not all) won’t be fooled twice.

I would be prepared to put my house deposit, that I’ve been working like a dog for the last three years to save up, on that outcome. Maybe not 60% but definitely a majority.

It’s simple maths.
 
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