I think the nineteenth century put paid to the idea of secession, and the ties that bind Americans are often stronger than acknowledged. Things could be much better, to be sure, especially in terms of the imbalance in regards to representation at the Federal level, but that’s a discussion for elsewhere.I think the more ossified nature of the US Constitution means, in terms of 2A and abortion (if it becomes unconstitutional) in particular, I can see States seceding from the US union within a generation.
As deaths from gun crime conttinue to inexorably rise, I can see some States, maybe California, maybe in the North East, saying we’ve had enough.
The military question is the big conundrum, and one EU states wouldn’t presently face.
In that case why do Labour refuse to take that stance. You would think if it were simple maths whatever party promised to deliver rejoin at the next election would be a shoe in.I think you are wrong for a number of reasons.
Firstly, it was 52/48 last time; this slim majority was caused principally by the apathy of the under 30s. That won’t happen again. I think any apathy will be more readily attributed to those that voted to leave, given how it’s turned out.
Secondly, the effluxion of time since 2016 means that many of the people who voted to leave have died and have been ‘replaced’ by those that will want to rejoin. I know that people become more conservative as they get older, but I’m not sure that will so readily apply here. Certainly I cannot see many people who voted remain being converted to thinking leaving was a good idea, which is what would have to occur for that maxim to remain the case here.
Thirdly, there is a tendency to characterise everyone as an obdurate leaver or remainer, but the truth is that many (maybe 10%) were highly equivocal and could see the benefits in both arguments. Any shifting pattern in those voters is only going to go one way.
Fourthly, the world, and Europe, was a far more certain place in 2016, and probably emboldened some people to throw the dice of isolationism in a way that they wouldn’t today in a post Covid world. The comfort blanket of the EU, in a Europe at war, would be persuasive to some.
All those factors, combined with the disaster that it‘s proving to be, and the weakening state of the UK economy means a majority vote to retain the status quo is inconceivable, irrespective of the gullible rump to which you refer, some of whom (although certainly not all) won’t be fooled twice.
I would be prepared to put my house deposit, that I’ve been working like a dog for the last three years to save up, on that outcome. Maybe not 60% but definitely a majority.
It’s simple maths.
Shoo.In that case why do Labour refuse to take that stance. You would think if it were simple maths whatever party promised to deliver rejoin at the next election would be a shoe in.
I agree with your argumentation, albeit none of the enumerated points directly address the media effect that @Saddleworth2 raised. The new class may be well willing to learn, but if the mainstream media is determined to teach the opposite, things might not change.I would be prepared to put my house deposit, that I’ve been working like a dog for the last three years to save up*, on that outcome. Maybe not 60% but definitely a majority.
It’s simple maths.
I strongly suspect that Labour are waiting for the public to get ahead of the curve on this one. At that point, Labour will ‘suddenly’ have a Damascene conversion.In that case why do Labour refuse to take that stance. You would think if it were simple maths whatever party promised to deliver rejoin at the next election would be a shoe in.
Guess which thread I've just been on :-)Shoo.
Because they are terrified of blowing the next election. And being terrified isn’t usually in accordance with applying logic, or (manifestly) being bold.
My four points surely trump his one when the margin is so narrow.I agree with your argumentation, albeit none of the enumerated points directly address the media effect that @Saddleworth2 raised. The new class may be well willing to learn, but if the mainstream media is determined to teach the opposite, things might not change.
*Couldn’t you just have remortgaged GDM Towers?
i suspect it will be remarkably soon after the next general election!I strongly suspect that Labour are waiting for the public to get ahead of the curve on this one. At that point, Labour will ‘suddenly’ have a Damascene conversion.
hmmmm I thought politics was run more on data these days than terror.Shoo.
Because they are terrified of blowing the next election. And being terrified isn’t usually in accordance with applying logic, or (manifestly) being bold.
That one point continues to deliver Tory governments, flying in the face of logic or their track record.My four points surely trump his one when the margin is so narrow.
Been off the housing ladder since 2009 when I went bankrupt for over a million quid!
You’re comparing FPTP with a binary yes or no vote. The Tories always get less than 48% of the vote.That one point continues to deliver Tory governments, flying in the face of logic or their track record.
Perhaps I’m giving too much weight to the media point. Seen from over here it‘d hard not to think that the media has enormous sway on public opinion, which is why every mention of Brexit in the media is treated on here like the discovery of the Welcome Stranger!My four points surely trump his one when the margin is so narrow.
Been off the housing ladder since 2009 when I went bankrupt for over a million quid!
Don’t be ridiculous. Have you idea how good it feels to come back from that? It feels fucking amazing :-)Apologies for my flippancy, I had no idea.
Neither of us can know. I certainly wouldn't be putting your house deposit on being right though.You’re comparing FPTP with a binary yes or no vote. The Tories always get less than 48% of the vote.
The media does have a massive sway on public opinion, but it isn’t absolute.Perhaps I’m giving too much weight to the media point. Seen from over here it‘d hard not to think that the media has enormous sway on public opinion, which is why every mention of Brexit in the media is treated on here like the discovery of the Welcome Stranger!
I’m nothing if not a gambler!Neither of us can know. I certainly wouldn't be putting your house deposit on being right though.
Yeah I'm all for looking after the diaspora but we probably need to tighten up the eligibility requirements. There's already something like 3m passport holders living abroad and another 50m+ with eligibility, imagine they all fucking decided to come here at once?There was a record number of Irish passports issued in the last year.
1m + I believe.
Also the number of British citizens seeking Irish passports in the past decade has exploded too.
It was on last night’s main news.
Speak for yourself, I hate the little ****.Sore point but we don’t hold it against him.
Wasn’t going to any tournament finals with us. I’d say his bank balance is a lot better after declaring for you lot.