How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

roubaixtuesday said:
Brexit was predicted to hit GDP by 4% overall by OBR and It's exactly on track to do that.

obr.uk

How are our Brexit forecasting assumptions performing? - Office for Budget Responsibility

Since the June 2016 EU referendum, our forecasts have incorporated a set of assumptions about the economic impact of Brexit on trade, productivity, investment, and migration. In this box, we assessed our current assumptions against the latest evidence.
obr.uk obr.uk

Other forecasters generally have slightly higher figures than that.

But you're really not interested in facts.
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Forecasts and assumptions are not facts.
 
hampshireblue said:
True. We'll all come back in 30 years shall we?
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Comeback? Most of you will never have left. I must say that the latest date picking to desperately prove you were right is a gem. People.discount covid or not, Ukraine or not, a useless govt or not dependant on if it helps their cause(cause being I'm right boo hoo)

As someone who wasn't interested predominantly in the economics of it all I will say just this. Too many shouted armageddon before Brexit and continue to do so when the reality so far is the vast majority haven't noticed much difference if any at all.

No amount of stats, forecasts or searching for the exact date where things look their worst compared to selected countries will change that.
 
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inbetween said:
5% implies that today Brexit has cost us half as much as COVID did (~£150bn) which is lunacy. Were we locked down for 6 months and paid not to work during Brexit? Did all trade effectively stop for 6 months as a result of Brexit? One LSE study I found claimed that Brexit would cost twice as much as COVID, £600bn-£800bn! If that happened then reasonably at least 10-30% of the workforce would be out of work, such forecasts are completely false and maniacal
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Your incredulity tells us about you, not about reality.
 
I recently saw a graph showing actual GDP against predicted GDP had we stayed in the EU. The scary thing is that the gap grows and keeps growing as the years go by. Yes, it's a prediction, but I can easily believe it. Note UK growth will still happen, it's just it will be at a lower rate. Basically forever.

Are the intangibles worth it? I really can't see it. You can't eat intangibles. They don't build new hospitals. They're just feelings. Feelings that not everyone shares.
 
So, forget how damaging to the economy Brexit has or hasn't been...

What has Brexit ever done for us?
 
hilts said:
Comeback? Most of you will never have left. I must say that the latest date picking to desperately prove you were right is a gem. People.discount covid or not, Ukraine or not, a useless govt or not dependant on if it helps their cause(cause being I'm right boo hoo)

As someone who wasn't interested predominantly in the economics of it all I will say just this. Too many shouted armageddon before Brexit and continue to do so when the reality so far is the vast majority haven't noticed much difference if any at all.

No amount of stats, forecasts or searching for the exact date where things look their worst compared to selected countries will change that.
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To be clear-I didn't pick the fuc**** dates. It was ME that was not discounting C19 unlike the OP who just decided that a 8%+ rise on one year was the norm. Anyway it seems to be that amongst some of you the economy is in fine fettle and Brexit(the reason for this thread) has had no impact. But if so, I wonder why, if given a chance, a fairly sizeable majority would vote to rejoin. To be clear. I am not one of those as the terms we enjoyed are long gone.

I don't think anyone is shouting armageddon, but just pointing out that there has been an impact on the economy, the best estimates of which, is a negative impact on the economy. The reality also, is that the electorate were told they would be actually better off, not the same, not worse off, but better off. So if they have noticed no difference, those claims have obviously proved to be wrong. And let's not foget the UK, so far, has chosen to ignore carrying out the normal checks on imports for fear of...hurting the economy even more.
 
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gordondaviesmoustache said:
More tedious than posting manifestly false statistics to bolster a wank argument?
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I honestly looked hard at the graph in the link below showing total GDP and I just can't see it, sorry. If you are saying the statistics are false then Google it and prove they're wrong. I can provide a ton of them that show that Brexit plainly hasn't had a huge effect, and definitely not armageddon as was predicted by the 'experts'.

Remember that COVID cost us £300-£400bn or about 10% of GDP which we've recovered but this is clearly visible in the data for 2020. I can even see the Ukraine war in 2022 which had a flattening effect. Apparently Brexit has cost us £150-£200bn and yet it's totally invisible? Why has Brexit been a disaster and yet it's totally invisible in the statistics?

The real world data proves that we're not suffering greatly from Brexit, the vast majority of people won't have even noticed albeit except for some adaptation and nuances. Largely otherwise we're suffering just as Europe is suffering from a very difficult environment caused by successive impactful global events and that's it.

The Ukraine war has cost you personally infinitely more than Brexit has. So are you all now going to argue that we should immediately and urgently find a solution with Russia? No, nobody is even arsed. Some even support further military involvement in Ukraine and that includes the EU but at what cost? Against a nuclear armed country! It's mad.

 
hampshireblue said:
To be clear-I didn't pick the fuc**** dates. It was ME that was not discounting C19 unlike the OP who just decided that a 8%+ rise on one year was the norm. Anyway it seems to be that amongst some of you the economy is in fine fettle and Brexit(the reason for this thread) has had no impact. But if so, I wonder why, if given a chance, a fairly sizeable majority would vote to rejoin. To be clear. I am not one of those as the terms we enjoyed are long gone.
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No one has said no impact, you are just lying now and getting irate which would be typical of someone who likes to get their own way. You are entitled to whatever opinion you like and you can repeat it endlessly on here.
I know a lot remainers(rejoiners now I guess:-) ) and we never fall out or have a bad word spoken. We just disagree.

You want to be the boring guy who cannot just give your opinion and leave it there fair enough. It's why posters don't frequent this cult like echo chamber much.
 
BrianW said:
I recently saw a graph showing actual GDP against predicted GDP had we stayed in the EU. The scary thing is that the gap grows and keeps growing as the years go by. Yes, it's a prediction, but I can easily believe it. Note UK growth will still happen, it's just it will be at a lower rate. Basically forever.

Are the intangibles worth it? I really can't see it. You can't eat intangibles. They don't build new hospitals. They're just feelings. Feelings that not everyone shares.
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Yes, it's a prediction, but I can easily believe it.


You don't say :-)
 
blueparrot said:
How do you know it has, depends what business or job you are in. Brexit has cost many far more than Ukraine, or Covid did.
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Did your energy bills increase 500% because of Brexit? Did food inflation increase to 20% because of Brexit? We left the EU in 2020, food inflation was less than 2% until the Ukraine war started in 2022. Had the Ukraine war not happened then would you be better off or worse off? You'd be a million miles better off. I doubt you'd notice any difference if Brexit hadn't happened.

A huge chunk of our electricity used to come from natural gas supplied by Russia. That tap was cut off so supply decreased and your energy bills went up as a result because we had to source more expensive natural gas from elsewhere such as Qatar or Norway.

We also import quite a lot of food from Europe but European farms and food producers need electricity too. European farms and food providers also need grains/wheats to make foods and who is one of the largest grain suppliers to Europe? Russia and Ukraine.

Just look at Germany today, growth in Germany is on its arse and is that because of Brexit or Ukraine? It's clearly because of Ukraine so why am I not allowed to apply this logic to the UK but I have to for Germany? By the logic you lot use Germany are suffering more than we are due to Brexit.
 
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