How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

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roubaixtuesday said:
I get it. You know far better than [checks notes] every economist and the OBR.

Of course you do.

Experts? Pfft.
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No I don't, But I am just able to compare our growth with other comparable countries in the EU using real figures!!! and realise that we are actually doing OK. I also realise it's not something you and the other doom moungers want to hear on this thread lol.

Anyway until the next time, try and have good day .
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
No I don't, But I am just able to compare our growth with other comparable countries in the EU using real figures!!! and realise that we are actually doing OK. I also realise it's not something you and the other doom moungers want to hear on this thread lol.

Anyway until the next time, try and have good day .
Click to expand...

<sighs>

From the report

Estimates using this method all find large, negative impacts, of often more than
5% of GDP. However, this method only measures the change in UK economic
outcomes after 2016 relative to other countries; it does not tell us why it changed.
While some or even most of that change may be attributable to Brexit, other
unrelated factors will also affect relative growth rates. It seems likely that much
of the ‘underperformance’ – which is in part shared by other large European
countries, including France, Germany and Italy – is due to other factors, and that
these estimates are therefore overstated. It is difficult to believe that the UK
would, absent Brexit, have substantially outperformed comparably sized European
economies.
The OBR agrees, and has maintained its view that the long-term impact
on productivity will be about 4%, much but not all of which has already
materialised. This in turn has significant fiscal costs, even after taking account of
reduced EU contributions, worsening the UK’s already difficult fiscal position.
So, overall, economists’ characterisation of Brexit as an economic ‘slow puncture’,
rather than a car crash, has largely been vindicated.

 And

1000012245.jpg


But still, you know better, obviously.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
<sighs>

From the report

Estimates using this method all find large, negative impacts, of often more than
5% of GDP. However, this method only measures the change in UK economic
outcomes after 2016 relative to other countries; it does not tell us why it changed.
While some or even most of that change may be attributable to Brexit, other
unrelated factors will also affect relative growth rates. It seems likely that much
of the ‘underperformance’ – which is in part shared by other large European
countries, including France, Germany and Italy – is due to other factors, and that
these estimates are therefore overstated. It is difficult to believe that the UK
would, absent Brexit, have substantially outperformed comparably sized European
economies.
The OBR agrees, and has maintained its view that the long-term impact
on productivity will be about 4%, much but not all of which has already
materialised. This in turn has significant fiscal costs, even after taking account of
reduced EU contributions, worsening the UK’s already difficult fiscal position.
So, overall, economists’ characterisation of Brexit as an economic ‘slow puncture’,
rather than a car crash, has largely been vindicated.

 And

View attachment 144728


But still, you know better, obviously.
Click to expand...
No I don't. But as it's a forecast, I can question it!

What YOU cannot question is the actual UK GDP growth compared to other comparable EU G7 countries!

I know that this is something that you are desperately trying to avoid engaging in as you looked them up yourself didnt you?

You checked those numbers when I posted them 2 or 3 weeks back. And then I noted that you were conspicuous by your absence in the debate, just like you are now! Anyway, until the next time.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
No I don't. But as it's a forecast, I can question it!

What YOU cannot question is the actual UK GDP growth compared to other comparable EU G7 countries!

I know that this is something that you are desperately trying to avoid engaging in as you looked them up yourself didnt you?

You checked those numbers when I posted them 2 or 3 weeks back. And then I noted that you were conspicuous by your absence in the debate, just like you are now! Anyway, until the next time.
Click to expand...

I'm not interested at all in the various amateur analysis, yours or anyone else's.

(They're largely based on using rapidly changing covid impacts to mask Brexit)

When every single actual expert believes different.

I've just posted the chart which shows what you don't accept.

Why do you believe you're more competent than [checks notes] the Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London

It's just astounding arrogance.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I'm not interested at all in the various amateur analysis, yours or anyone else's.

(They're largely based on using rapidly changing covid impacts to mask Brexit)

When every single actual expert believes different.

I've just posted the chart which shows what you don't accept.

Why do you believe you're more competent than [checks notes] the Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London

It's just astounding arrogance.
Click to expand...
It's not astounding arrogance, what is astounding arrogance is to ignore real world data and claim an analysis forecast as fact just to confirm bias. I have seen past studies where academics claimed that Brexit would be almost as worse as COVID. Those studies were proven as total nonsense so why should anybody believe any of them? You cannot prove something as right or wrong on the basis of a claim that has not happened yet so your information is today basically useless information.

The problem with the EU is it's oriented around internal trade however an internal market of goods trade is a 1990's idea but today the date is 2025. The world has moved on. Big trade in goods is stalling because it is slowly and wholly being replaced by foreign imports. We don't have a steel industry anymore and we don't really make big things of scale to make trade matter. Those industries aren't exactly dying but they're being marginalised. Had it not been for service growth then the UK economy would have collapsed whether in the EU or not.

The biggest opportunites now lie in big tech, AI, services and other advanced technology. Manufacturing will only feature as a subset within these fields, the more simplistic remainder will be done abroad. You can for example now buy foreign EV's for cheaper and of higher quality than those built by Vauxhall. And guess what, this picture is worse in the EU because they're hopelessly exposed to a massive lack of investment and diversification towards these new sectors.

Let's face it, the UK is not going to massively benefit from selling a handful more Range Rovers into Europe. The evidence of this is Germany. Germany aren't trying to manufacture more and focus on that sort of trade, instead they desperately need to diversify away from that..... And who is their biggest services competitor and the dominant force within services in Europe? The UK.

The fact is service economies do not require political union or common currencies nor do they require harmonised physical goods trade arrangements. The biggest single benefit of being in the EU for us was freedom of movement because our greatest need now is skilled people. At the end of the day the great idea of just 1 skilled person will always potentially overrule the cost of a goods tariff.
 
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inbetween said:
It's not astounding arrogance, what is astounding arrogance is to ignore real world data
Click to expand...

You're the one ignoring real world data and instead doing your own noddy analysis.

But naturally, you understand this issue better than actual economics professors (and all experts- it's not remotely contested or controversial).

The rest - by all means concentrate on services for the future. That doesn't magically remove damage in trade in goods and other areas from Brexit.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You're the one ignoring real world data and instead doing your own noddy analysis.

But naturally, you understand this issue better than actual economics professors (and all experts- it's not remotely contested or controversial).

The rest - by all means concentrate on services for the future. That doesn't magically remove damage in trade in goods and other areas from Brexit.
Click to expand...
Not sure why you bother mate. He just makes stuff up.
 
inbetween said:
Sigh.

Your summary is misinformation. You can't summarise a big negative whole economic impact from a negative impact to trade in goods alone. Of course trade will be negatively affected but for a start 40-50% of our trade is not with Europe and a considerable amount of other trade is not even in goods.

Where is this big negative impact in either of the graphs below? I'd bloody love somebody to draw me a circle. I can see COVID very easily for example but I cannot see Brexit at all.

45225236-b38f-456f-a3f4-09b4c3edec5f.png


gdp-of-the-united-kingdom.jpg
Click to expand...
The Covid dip in 2020 is also when we actually left the EU and its impacts (on exports) kicked in.

For obvious negative impact we went from highest ever car production with expansion predicted to the decimation of UK motor manufacturing.
 
Vic said:
The Covid dip in 2020 is also when we actually left the EU and its impacts (on exports) kicked in.

For obvious negative impact we went from highest ever car production with expansion predicted to the decimation of UK motor manufacturing.
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The estimated cost of Brexit is £310bn but that's by 2035! Spread that over 10 years, that's £31bn per year, around 1% of today's GDP. It's hardly catastrophic. COVID cost us £400bn but that was in one year so that was catastrophic.

We spend treble this supposed cost of Brexit on the national debt interest repayments per year! How many of you are quoting catastrophic studies about the threat of the rising national debt and fiscal deficit...?

If what you're saying is correct then we had Brexit in 2020 and rapidly recovered to growth by 2021, case closed....

news.sky.com

Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU

The report came up with a scenario for growth if the UK had stayed inside the EU, and compared it to forecasts the Office for Budget Responsibility made in March last year.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
Look at the actual GDP figures!
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What figures are you looking at BTW? everything I see points at UK being lower than most EU counties and lower than the EU overall. I've checked many sources. Here's the world bank ( 2023 latest values )

EU counties
data.worldbank.org

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data
data.worldbank.org data.worldbank.org

vs UK

data.worldbank.org

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data
data.worldbank.org data.worldbank.org
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I'm not interested at all in the various amateur analysis, yours or anyone else's.

(They're largely based on using rapidly changing covid impacts to mask Brexit)

When every single actual expert believes different.

I've just posted the chart which shows what you don't accept.

Why do you believe you're more competent than [checks notes] the Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the School of Politics & Economics of King's College, London

It's just astounding arrogance.
Click to expand...
They are real numbers,
roubaixtuesday said:
You're the one ignoring real world data and instead doing your own noddy analysis.

But naturally, you understand this issue better than actual economics professors (and all experts- it's not remotely contested or controversial).

The rest - by all means concentrate on services for the future. That doesn't magically remove damage in trade in goods and other areas from Brexit.
Click to expand...
The GDP data I put in this thread was official, ONS, the numbers are accepted fact! You cannot dispute them.

Your forecast or prediction call it whatever is exactly that a prediction!

They could be right it could be wrong, but despite experts, no one knows for sure. Sure I accept there has likely been some damage to trade , but despite that the UK has certainly prospered before, during and after Brexit compared to our nearest economic rivals in the EU.

You just don't like the actual GDP numbers which are still very good despite Brexit, because it brings into question your argument of a 4 % or 5 % GDP growth deficit.

You would be a better person if you just accepted the numbers as they are and were happy with them.
 
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