How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

inbetween said:
The estimated cost of Brexit is £310bn but that's by 2035! Spread that over 10 years, that's £31bn per year, around 1% of today's GDP. It's hardly catastrophic. COVID cost us £400bn but that was in one year so that was catastrophic.

We spend treble this supposed cost of Brexit on the national debt interest repayments per year! How many of you are quoting catastrophic studies about the threat of the rising national debt and fiscal deficit...?

If what you're saying is correct then we had Brexit in 2020 and rapidly recovered to growth by 2021, case closed....

news.sky.com

Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU

The report came up with a scenario for growth if the UK had stayed inside the EU, and compared it to forecasts the Office for Budget Responsibility made in March last year.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
Click to expand...
It looks like the line flattened after the post-Covid bounce.
 
inbetween said:
The estimated cost of Brexit is £310bn but that's by 2035! Spread that over 10 years, that's £31bn per year, around 1% of today's GDP. It's hardly catastrophic. COVID cost us £400bn but that was in one year so that was catastrophic.

We spend treble this supposed cost of Brexit on the national debt interest repayments per year! How many of you are quoting catastrophic studies about the threat of the rising national debt and fiscal deficit...?

If what you're saying is correct then we had Brexit in 2020 and rapidly recovered to growth by 2021, case closed....

news.sky.com

Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU

The report came up with a scenario for growth if the UK had stayed inside the EU, and compared it to forecasts the Office for Budget Responsibility made in March last year.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
Click to expand...

It doesn't say what you think it does. Are you really sure you understand economics well enough to challenge experts? Did you even read any of the report?

From the report (GVA and GDP are roughly equivalent as I understand it) - 10% UK hit. ie far worse than the report I linked yesterday.

www.camecon.com

London's economy after Brexit: Impact and implications - Cambridge Econometrics

New updated analysis with the Greater London Authority reveals impacts of the UK's departure from the Customs Union and Single Market.
www.camecon.com www.camecon.com


1738169247527.png
 
Vic said:
It looks like the line flattened after the post-Covid bounce.
Click to expand...
So what has happened in Europe? Why are European lines flatter than ours or even going down as with Germany? Arguably by this logic they're suffering more from Brexit than we are! Are you saying that had we stayed in the EU then today we'd be doing FAR better than any other EU country? On what basis? I'd be surprised if it made any difference at all.

The answer to this is Europe and the UK have been negatively affected by COVID and then the Ukraine war. These two have had infinitely greater impacts on people than Brexit.

I've never heard a single person say that Brexit has affected them at all. However, you can directly measure the impact of the Ukraine war by comparing your food or gas bills today to those of pre-2022. I work from home a lot now purely because of what happened during COVID. I can't think of one single way in which Brexit has impacted me. I do have to get a stamp now when I go to Europe which is dreadful but I'll manage....

I suppose if you sold tractors solely to Europe then yes you're going to be impacted, however, if you look at how the economy is actually doing then this impact is clearly small (so far?). It's clearly so small that it hasn't stopped us from measurably doing better than Europe is doing.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
You would be a better person if you just accepted the numbers as they are and were happy with them.
Click to expand...

I absolutely accept the numbers.

They don't show what you claim they do, as evidenced by multiple (every...) experts in the field, who I've repeatedly led you to.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I absolutely accept the numbers.

They don't show what you claim they do, as evidenced by multiple (every...) experts in the field, who I've repeatedly led you to.
Click to expand...
Well there we are then. You accept that our growth since Brexit has been pretty good. I can't make you understand that one set of numbers is greater than another set, you will need to work on that yourself. But I do feel you have made some progress from initially calling them manipulated and amateurish.

Anyway until the next time. Have a good evening. I have a football match to go to, are you attending tonight?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
You accept that our growth since Brexit has been pretty good
Click to expand...
I accept that the economy is significantly smaller than it would have been without Brexit.

A reality you can't accept, apparently, instead asserting you know more about economics than every economist. I dread to think what your views on the geometry of the earth are...

But yes, come on City!

 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Well there we are then. You accept that our growth since Brexit has been pretty good. I can't make you understand that one set of numbers is greater than another set, you will need to work on that yourself. But I do feel you have made some progress from initially calling them manipulated and amateurish.

Anyway until the next time. Have a good evening. I have a football match to go to, are you attending tonight?
Click to expand...

They claimed armageddon before and they will continue to now, although occasionally they slip into terms like significant(tut tut). Most though haven't noticed any difference and just carry on.

It will be the same today, tomorrow and for years to come. They have either been particularly affected due to their personal circumstances or they put so much effort into remain they can't accept it went the way it did.

Now just accept we would be growing at much higher rates than any other western country if it wasn't for Brexit. We would be booming now, just us: mind :-) They warned us what would happen and just because you can't see the devastation it doesn't mean its not happening. So start looking bloody harder and if you still can't see it pop back in here for unbiased opinion.

They are even googling desperately for anything that can change your..... sorry help you see the light.

It's not sad at all;-) it's for your benefit.
 
hilts said:
They claimed armageddon before and they will continue to now, although occasionally they slip into terms like significant(tut tut). Most though haven't noticed any difference and just carry on.

It will be the same today, tomorrow and for years to come. They have either been particularly affected due to their personal circumstances or they put so much effort into remain they can't accept it went the way it did.

Now just accept we would be growing at much higher rates than any other western country if it wasn't for Brexit. We would be booming now, just us: mind :-) They warned us what would happen and just because you can't see the devastation it doesn't mean its not happening. So start looking bloody harder and if you still can't see it pop back in here for unbiased opinion.

They are even googling desperately for anything that can change your..... sorry help you see the light.

It's not sad at all;-) it's for your benefit.
Click to expand...

All I've done is post reputable sources on Brexit impact. No idea why you and others find it so hard to accept reality.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
All I've done is post reputable sources on Brexit impact. No idea why you and others find it so hard to accept reality.
Click to expand...
Reality haha

Please if you do find any more reputable sources that confirms as facts that our gdp would be 4% better(is it still 4%?)please don't hesitate to pop them on here. I feel you may:-)

#boomnotbrexit

I only pop in every now and then to see if there is any actual change I have missed on the news, there never is but it will happen one day. Labour are promising closer ties whatever that means.

In the meantime quote away for your own angst.

Freud would have loved this thread in fairness. Better out than in:-)
 
hilts said:
Reality haha

Please if you do find any more reputable sources that confirms as facts that our gdp would be 4% better(is it still 4%?)please don't hesitate to pop them on here. I feel you may:-)

#boomnotbrexit

I only pop in every now and then to see if there is any actual change I have missed on the news, there never is but it will happen one day. Labour are promising closer ties whatever that means.

In the meantime quote away for your own angst.

Freud would have loved this thread in fairness. Better out than in:-)
Click to expand...

Reality is indeed a cruel mistress. Enjoy your denial.
 
bluethrunthru said:
and today the latest self imposed trade barrier comes into force - its been delayed 5 years by post Brexit Govt inaction who were terrified of the impact on us

www.gov.uk

Get ready for safety and security declaration requirements for importing goods from the EU

www.gov.uk www.gov.uk
Click to expand...
  • businesses that export from Great Britain or import from countries outside the EU are already required to submit safety and security declarations
  • if you already submit declarations for Rest of World imports, or voluntarily for EU imports, you won’t need to make any changes and should continue to submit declarations as you do currently - but you may be able to benefit from some of the changes from 31 January 2025
This is hardly catastrophic given it doesn't affect 50% of goods trade (non-EU) and mixed haulers and exporters will do it already. It really honestly isn't a big deal.

The need to fill in a form will not cause total trade collapse. If it does then this will hurt European businesses most given it only impacts imports to the UK from Europe. If we import less due to complexities or cost then it is Europe that loses out.
 
inbetween said:
  • businesses that export from Great Britain or import from countries outside the EU are already required to submit safety and security declarations
  • if you already submit declarations for Rest of World imports, or voluntarily for EU imports, you won’t need to make any changes and should continue to submit declarations as you do currently - but you may be able to benefit from some of the changes from 31 January 2025
This is hardly catastrophic given it doesn't affect 50% of goods trade (non-EU) and mixed haulers and exporters will do it already. It really honestly isn't a big deal.

The need to fill in a form will not cause total trade collapse. If it does then this will hurt European businesses most given it only impacts imports to the UK from Europe. If we import less due to complexities or cost then it is Europe that loses out.
Click to expand...

We both lose out, obviously.

Well, aside from a very select few…
 
Last edited:
inbetween said:
  • businesses that export from Great Britain or import from countries outside the EU are already required to submit safety and security declarations
  • if you already submit declarations for Rest of World imports, or voluntarily for EU imports, you won’t need to make any changes and should continue to submit declarations as you do currently - but you may be able to benefit from some of the changes from 31 January 2025
This is hardly catastrophic given it doesn't affect 50% of goods trade (non-EU) and mixed haulers and exporters will do it already. It really honestly isn't a big deal.

The need to fill in a form will not cause total trade collapse. If it does then this will hurt European businesses most given it only impacts imports to the UK from Europe. If we import less due to complexities or cost then it is Europe that loses out.
Click to expand...
Gosh, those unicorns are still eating that cake.
 
inbetween said:
  • businesses that export from Great Britain or import from countries outside the EU are already required to submit safety and security declarations
  • if you already submit declarations for Rest of World imports, or voluntarily for EU imports, you won’t need to make any changes and should continue to submit declarations as you do currently - but you may be able to benefit from some of the changes from 31 January 2025
This is hardly catastrophic given it doesn't affect 50% of goods trade (non-EU) and mixed haulers and exporters will do it already. It really honestly isn't a big deal.

The need to fill in a form will not cause total trade collapse. If it does then this will hurt European businesses most given it only impacts imports to the UK from Europe. If we import less due to complexities or cost then it is Europe that loses out.
Click to expand...

try telling that to those who are affected and have yet more paperwork that they didn't do before despite a promise that nothing would change and I think you'd have trouble persuading them
 
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