How long before we get into pot 1 for the Champions League

[bigf42]

For those like me who have been wondering how long it would take for us to get into pot 1, here are some basic projections.

This is all based on this encyclopedic website <a class="postlink" href="http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/index.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/index.html</a>.

Below is a projection of 5 seasons European points with us as beaten quarter finalists.

This is on the basis of 4 wins and a draw in the group stage, and winning the home QF leg.

104.883 points is 8th in the rankings this year, and it is safe to assume this will be the level in the next few years,
as the effect of the changes in 2009 will have worked their way through.

Any improvement from QF losers in the next 2 seasons would most likely see us in Pot 1 for 2015/16.

The Killer for us was obviously 2009/10 (3.59) which works out of the system by 2015/16, Last season didn't help much either.

What you also observe in the rankings is the importance of a decent Europa League performance in maintaining and improving coefficient points. Last season Chelsea gained 27 pts, only Bayern (33) and Dortmund (30) secured more.

year -5 year -4 year -3 year -2 year -1 Co-eff Seeding
2013/14 20.00 3.59 16.67 20.05 10.29 70.59 Pot 3 QF
2014/15 3.59 16.67 20.05 10.29 27.25 77.84 Pot 2 QF
2015/16 16.67 20.05 10.29 27.25 27.25 101.51 Pot 2/1 QF
2016/17 20.05 10.29 27.25 27.25 27.25 112.09 Pot 1 QF
2017/18 10.29 27.25 27.25 27.25 27.25 119.29 Pot 1 QF
2018/19 27.25 27.25 27.25 27.25 27.25 136.25 Pot 1

Projected

l16 QF
group Bonus 4 4
4 wins 8 8
1 draw 1 1
last 16 bonus 5 5
last 16 h 2 2
last 16a 0 1
QF bonus 1
QF h 2
qf a 0

20 24

Country Co 3.25 3.25
Points ear 23.25 27.25

 

[Vienna_70]

In an interview with Martin Samuel, Platini said it was wrong that City, as English Champions should be in Pot 2, while Arsenal, who finished 4th, were in Pot 1.

So maybe it won't be long.

 

[markbmcfc]

I'd like to get out of the group stage before worrying about Pot 1!!

 

[Deleted member 52846]

I would never expext to be reaching Pot1 before we are an established quarter final and semi final team. By established I don't mean getting to that stage once or twice.

 

[Falastur]

In an interview with Martin Samuel, Platini said it was wrong that City, as English Champions should be in Pot 2, while Arsenal, who finished 4th, were in Pot 1.

So maybe it won't be long.

If that's the interview I'm thinking of, Platini said a lot of things, such as basically letting himself be twisted, outwitted and argued into saying that the entirety of FFPR is a sham. However, I don't see FFPR going away any time soon, so I wouldn't put a bet on this changing, either.

Not to mention, the teams such as Arsenal who it would directly disadvantage are all very wealthy and influential, and would kick up such a fuss as to threaten to tear UEFA apart at the seams...

 

[Mr. Aguia]

Probably take 5 years. Dortmund are still in pot 3 and they made it to the finals last year. FFP will tighten the grip of the big clubs so I don't think we can expect too many big clubs missing out on CL very often. So we won't be able to rely on teams above us dropping out. We'll have to push past them.

 

[Mrmcfc]

I don't think pots matter.
If we're good enough to win it we'll beat whoever is put in front of us.
At least we'll be earning our spot in the knockout rounds rather than easing past Braga, Cluj and Galatasaray.

 

[The Fat el Hombre]

I don't think pots matter.
If we're good enough to win it we'll beat whoever is put in front of us.
At least we'll be earning our spot in the knockout rounds rather than easing past Braga, Cluj and Galatasaray.

I know what you mean mate and it's all down to the luck of the draw but I'd rather we made it as easy for ourselves as possible and to do that we've got to try and get into pot 1

Surprised by the platini comment above. My guess is he'll change the rules as soon as we get enough points to be classed as pot 1

 

[6one]

3 years.

 

[East Level 2]

Do we need to be in pot 1? Pot 2 without being landed with the best teams in pots 3 & 4 should be OK.