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projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Site still saying 74 will do it with us finishing well clear with 88.
They’re the most accurate I’ve come across over the years and interestingly the prediction was quite similar when we were bottom half. They use underlying performance to strip away as much luck as they can.
The highest I’ve seen from them this season which would win the league (one point more than second) was 80 about a month ago.
It’s quite good to refer to every now and again because a team can be playing really well but be way down the table and vice versa. As an example when we were bottom half I nipped on the site and it was basically saying all good be patient.
As Francis Lee once said the trouble with football clubs is their results come out every week.
Don’t trust a couple of bad results or a couple of good results. The table lies most of the time and the best team doesn’t always win. In the end performance is the important thing as luck comes and goes.
People generally just remember the last result so we could play great and lose to a fluked goal and everyone is mad or we could be awful but still win. Pep talks more and more about this in his press conferences. This will never change because it’s human nature but there is another way of looking at things if you want.
Nothing is full proof and the predictions can’t account for things like injuries.... but did you know that if you predicted the league table at the start of a season and used how the last one finished with the promoted sides finishing bottom three...you would beat 95% of all predictions. This site is one of the 5% that beats this method. If you click on SPI this is what the league ranking would look like if luck was stripped out...look how good Brighton really are.
Give it a go...particularly after a league defeat. It may calm your nerves!
