How many points will be needed to win the league? (74 GD)

[paulsimpson]

west ham (in the league )is all that matters, teams going on a long undefeated run can lose a lot of momentum after one defeat, lose 2 on the trot and its squeaky bum time, beat west ham , get the 3 points and hopefully utd and Leicester drop points , all this we wont lose so many, or the others wont win so many is rubbish, united can get 88 points 13 wins from 13 games, we need 89 , so 10 wins from 13 games at the moment , even after our long run that is a big ask for us.

it isn't done until its done.

An assumption, but let's just go along with it -
another continuous 10 wins ( very possible but unlikely as Pep keeps pointing out we will drop points) from 13 gets us 89 pts. So you're correct. That wins it. But in those next 10 games there would be wins against utd and Leicester meaning that they could only both get 85 pts. So 9 would do,giving 86 points.
One game at a time. West Ham next .
Or should I say Borussia?

 

[alexmcity]

7 wins are likely to be enough anyway. 7 wins will be more than 90% enough, IF 2 of the wins are against United and Leicester.

It's all about probabilites though. Even a probability of 99/100 isn't a certainty. The probability that United would collapse back in 2012 with just 6 games to go was tiny and the probability that Liverpool would collapse like that was extremely tiny back in December. In a strange season like this where one can be hit by injuries, covid absences, VAR decisions, etc., we should think on a game per game basis. West Ham, that's it.

 

[jimharri]

Access Restricted

yep, you are quite correct

Those were the days!

 

[pirate]

I reckon 80 points will win the league
Thats seven more wins for us

the scum and leicester are both on 49 points with 13 games to go
cant see either winning more than 10 of those and that gets them to 79

west ham are on 45 with 13 to go
again cant see them winning more than 10 and that puts them on 75

chelsea are on 43 with 13 to go
I cannot see them winning them all, losing one puts them on 79

Liverpool are on 40 with 13 to go
winning all only gets them to 79

everton are on 40 with 14 to go
winning all but one puts them on 79, and i cant see them doing that

villa are on 36 with 15 to go
winning all but one puts them on 78, and I cant see them doing that with their talisman injured

no team below villa can get over 80 points

 

[jimharri]

7 wins are likely to be enough anyway. 7 wins will be more than 90% enough, IF 2 of the wins are against United and Leicester.

It's all about probabilites though. Even a probability of 99/100 isn't a certainty. The probability that United would collapse back in 2012 with just 6 games to go was tiny and the probability that Liverpool would collapse like that was extremely tiny back in December. In a strange season like this where one can be hit by injuries, covid absences, VAR decisions, etc., we should think on a game per game basis. West Ham, that's it.

I remember a time when we used to be looking at the upcoming fixtures, trying to figure out where we'd get the points needed to get to the magic 40 pt mark. And invariably, the games you thought you might win, you'd lose. And, of course, the ones where you thought we had no chance, we'd go and win. Blackburn away in '95 is a fine example of that!

 

[jimharri]

I reckon 80 points will win the league
Thats seven more wins for us

the scum and leicester are both on 49 points with 13 games to go
cant see either winning more than 10 of those and that gets them to 79

west ham are on 45 with 13 to go
again cant see them winning more than 10 and that puts them on 75

chelsea are on 43 with 13 to go
I cannot see them winning them all, losing one puts them on 79

Liverpool are on 40 with 13 to go
winning all only gets them to 79

everton are on 40 with 14 to go
winning all but one puts them on 79, and i cant see them doing that

villa are on 36 with 15 to go
winning all but one puts them on 78, and I cant see them doing that with their talisman injured

no team below villa can get over 80 points

You're discounting draws? Win the 10, and draw the other 3 would get them to 82 pts. I'd go for 85 pts to be fairly certain (we may well not need that many, but I can't help thinking "worst case scenario"). Too long supporting City, I guess. Old habits die hard.

 

[pirate]

You're discounting draws? Win the 10, and draw the other 3 would get them to 82 pts. I'd go for 85 pts to be fairly certain (we may well not need that many, but I can't help thinking "worst case scenario". Too long supporting City, I guess. Old habits die hard.

sort of discounting draws
I worked out the points total i think they will get and then just posted the number of wins to get to that total
in reality i think the max united will get is 9 wins and 3 draws and a loss (against us), but 10 wins was just easier to post. Also keep in mind that 9 wins, 3 draws and a loss is better form than they have shown this season up to now.

 

[jimharri]

sort of discounting draws
I worked out the points total i think they will get and then just posted the number of wins to get to that total
in reality i think the max united will get is 9 wins and 3 draws and a loss (against us), but 10 wins was just easier to post. Also keep in mind that 9 wins, 3 draws and a loss is better form than they have shown this season up to now.

Run that by me again!

;-)

 

[dickie davies]

We get beat by Leicester and the rags and suddenly we'll be shitting ourselves

 

[aguero93:20]

Sun Jihai (IIRC) likes this post.


Or was it Dunney? It's a pisser getting old.

Don't even need to go back that far. Sunderland in 2012. Micah Richards hits their crossbar at 0-0 after battering them for 95 minutes and they counter and that Chinese lad scores a well offside goal with their first attack.

 

[jimharri]

Don't even need to go back that far. Sunderland in 2012. Micah Richards hits their crossbar at 0-0 after battering them for 95 minutes and they counter and that Chinese lad scores a well offside goal with their first attack.

Yeah; well remembered. I thought Tyler was going to spontaneously combust.

 

[jimharri]

We get beat by Leicester and the rags and suddenly we'll be shitting ourselves

It's not impossible for either to beat us, if we're not on our game. We need the first 25 minutes at the Emirates replicated over the full 90 minutes, in both games.

 

[aguero93:20]

Yeah; well remembered. I thought Tyler was going to spontaneously combust.

Think that was the moment I truly began to hate Tyler.

 

[dickie davies]

It's not impossible for either to beat us, if we're not on our game. We need the first 25 minutes at the Emirates replicated over the full 90 minutes, in both games.

And we're playing a bit of an in form WHU this weekend where we'll have to rotate players in so we won't be as fluid as normal
I'd take another performance and result as the Arsenal game now

 

[aguero93:20]

And we're playing a bit of an in form WHU this weekend where we'll have to rotate players in so we won't be as fluid as normal
I'd take another performance and result as the Arsenal game now

Absolutely, 1-0s all the way. The league is just about not doing anything stupid and closing it out now, the real work is in the other 3 comps.
Every time we pick up 3 points from here on in the rags and leicester heads will drop a little further, we should know, we've been there in 2013,2015, last season.

 

[lionheart]

And we're playing a bit of an in form WHU this weekend where we'll have to rotate players in so we won't be as fluid as normal
I'd take another performance and result as the Arsenal game now

We will not beat West Ham, just mark my words. All good things come to an end.

 

[Corky]

This ended a purple patch and cost us momentum and promotion ultimately for me:


The dirty get Mark Bright roughing up Nixon until he reacts, and the game turns on its head with Redmond in goal for the last 20 mins.

 

[jimharri]

We will not beat West Ham, just mark my words. All good things come to an end.

 

[ancoats]

And we're playing a bit of an in form WHU this weekend where we'll have to rotate players in so we won't be as fluid as normal
I'd take another performance and result as the Arsenal game now

control and game management that what we played vs arsenal. in fact all season we have learnt to control games so much better because of the defence. arsenal never laid a glove on us on their home pitch that's why the game was a hard watch. city just played the ball around arsenal and made them run and run

pep is a great manager and give him the tools and rotation of players city are a danger to anybody
rotation is a good thing and keeps players hungry knowing i may have to sit out the next game. west ham at home is a hard game and they are in form and moyes will use the 10 men behind the ball and hit us on the break. but pep will just pick 11 players and control the ball again make west ham run and move for 90 minutes

we have earned a 10 point lead in the premier league going into the champions league knockout games. this is what the plan was and what the players have work so hard for. now they have to go out and show what all the fuzz is about
for me the season starts right now and city are in everything. its in our own hands and all the hard work over the winter months must start blossom to fruit

 

[Mike N]

This ended a purple patch and cost us momentum and promotion ultimately for me:


The dirty get Mark Bright roughing up Nixon until he reacts, and the game turns on its head with Redmond in goal for the last 20 mins.

What an idiot Nixon was. Single handedly lost the game. Cheers Eric.