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How many trophies will we win?
- Thread starter PR7
- Start date
burning blue soul
Well-Known Member
Why is it the further we get into the quad the smaller the odds get?So now roughly 50% x 85% x 20% = 8.5%?
Tricky_Trev
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 18 Jan 2009
- Messages
- 32,553
Wowzers, 40% chance to win the CL!? I’m trying to do the maths. Let’s say for example, we’d have to beat Spurs, Juve and Barca, even if we went crazy and said 80% chance of beating Spurs, 70% chance of beating Juve and 60% chance of beating Barca (all of those are highly over optimistic), that still works out at 33.6%. How have you arrived at 40%!!? I’d have thought between about 17 and 22%, something like that. 40% is staggering! From here, we’d win 2 out of every 5 CL’s?I would go 85 cup, 45 league, 40 champions league - I make that about 12% chance not using a calculator.
Machiavelli
Well-Known Member
Dyscalculia.Why is it the further we get into the quad the smaller the odds get?
prestonibbo_mcfc
Well-Known Member
Some great results in the league today.
Palace - Safe now hopefully on the beach.
Burnley 8 points clear of the drop and Cardiff to play next - could be safe.
Don't think Palace will be on the beach, but we know how much harder anyone tries, when they have to.
W
W
worsleyweb
Guest
Wowzers, 40% chance to win the CL!? I’m trying to do the maths. Let’s say for example, we’d have to beat Spurs, Juve and Barca, even if we went crazy and said 80% chance of beating Spurs, 70% chance of beating Juve and 60% chance of beating Barca (all of those are highly over optimistic), that still works out at 33.6%. How have you arrived at 40%!!? I’d have thought between about 17 and 22%, something like that. 40% is staggering! From here, we’d win 2 out of every 5 CL’s?
just think we are better than all of them.
burning blue soul
Well-Known Member
I've noticed that the odds calculations completely disregarded the fact that we have already won one of the 4.Dyscalculia.
I do like dyscalculia as a word btw! Simply super!!!
Machiavelli
Well-Known Member
You can have the word dyslexia as well. ;-)I've noticed that the odds calculations completely disregarded the .fact that we have already won one on the 4.
I do like dyscalculia as a word btw! Simply super!!!
Tricky_Trev
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 18 Jan 2009
- Messages
- 32,553
So do I.. ish. I’d see Barca as more or less 50:50.just think we are better than all of them.
0.65 x 0.55 x 0.5 = 18%
burning blue soul
Well-Known Member
You can't quote that mate, I've already edited it!!! :DYou can have the word dyslexia as well. ;-)