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How many trophies will we win?
- Thread starter PR7
- Start date
burning blue soul
Well-Known Member
Why is it the further we get into the quad the smaller the odds get?So now roughly 50% x 85% x 20% = 8.5%?
Tricky_Trev
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 18 Jan 2009
- Messages
- 33,250
Wowzers, 40% chance to win the CL!? I’m trying to do the maths. Let’s say for example, we’d have to beat Spurs, Juve and Barca, even if we went crazy and said 80% chance of beating Spurs, 70% chance of beating Juve and 60% chance of beating Barca (all of those are highly over optimistic), that still works out at 33.6%. How have you arrived at 40%!!? I’d have thought between about 17 and 22%, something like that. 40% is staggering! From here, we’d win 2 out of every 5 CL’s?I would go 85 cup, 45 league, 40 champions league - I make that about 12% chance not using a calculator.
Machiavelli
Well-Known Member
Dyscalculia.Why is it the further we get into the quad the smaller the odds get?
prestonibbo_mcfc
Well-Known Member
Some great results in the league today.
Palace - Safe now hopefully on the beach.
Burnley 8 points clear of the drop and Cardiff to play next - could be safe.
Don't think Palace will be on the beach, but we know how much harder anyone tries, when they have to.
W
W
worsleyweb
Guest
Wowzers, 40% chance to win the CL!? I’m trying to do the maths. Let’s say for example, we’d have to beat Spurs, Juve and Barca, even if we went crazy and said 80% chance of beating Spurs, 70% chance of beating Juve and 60% chance of beating Barca (all of those are highly over optimistic), that still works out at 33.6%. How have you arrived at 40%!!? I’d have thought between about 17 and 22%, something like that. 40% is staggering! From here, we’d win 2 out of every 5 CL’s?
just think we are better than all of them.
burning blue soul
Well-Known Member
I've noticed that the odds calculations completely disregarded the fact that we have already won one of the 4.Dyscalculia.
I do like dyscalculia as a word btw! Simply super!!!
Machiavelli
Well-Known Member
You can have the word dyslexia as well. ;-)I've noticed that the odds calculations completely disregarded the .fact that we have already won one on the 4.
I do like dyscalculia as a word btw! Simply super!!!
Tricky_Trev
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 18 Jan 2009
- Messages
- 33,250
So do I.. ish. I’d see Barca as more or less 50:50.just think we are better than all of them.
0.65 x 0.55 x 0.5 = 18%
burning blue soul
Well-Known Member
You can't quote that mate, I've already edited it!!! :DYou can have the word dyslexia as well. ;-)
marco
Well-Known Member
Wowzers, 40% chance to win the CL!? I’m trying to do the maths. Let’s say for example, we’d have to beat Spurs, Juve and Barca, even if we went crazy and said 80% chance of beating Spurs, 70% chance of beating Juve and 60% chance of beating Barca (all of those are highly over optimistic), that still works out at 33.6%. How have you arrived at 40%!!? I’d have thought between about 17 and 22%, something like that. 40% is staggering! From here, we’d win 2 out of every 5 CL’s?
its crazy i don't think any odds can reflect our chances and its bizarre how they are calculated, the only way IMO is to say it as it is ''win 10 and draw 2 in the right order' now that tells me its hard from now on never mind from the start of the season,get that figure down to win 5 draw 1 and i'l start to think 'hey'' we have a great chance here
Machiavelli
Well-Known Member
I liked it, you should’ve left it. xDYou can't quote that mate, I've already edited it!!! :D
marco
Well-Known Member
i think when you talk of pressure it does not apply to a certain body of professionals such as top footballers or snooker,darts players etc, being away from home used to have a negative effect on city and now it does not,they can play anywhere and play as they do at home,as for the media 'yes' they could have used it for a weapon against us 'to crank it up' but it rarely gets mentionedNo one wants that pressure but I am surprised this storyline hasn't been given more coverage, it's already an incredible testament to the work being done
i think when you talk of pressure it does not apply to a certain body of professionals such as top footballers or snooker,darts players etc, being away from home used to have a negative effect on city and now it does not,they can play anywhere and play as they do at home,as for the media 'yes' they could have used it for a weapon against us 'to crank it up' but it rarely gets mentioned
Even at this level and biggest clubs, I believe the pressure is always there and with the treble or quadruple being the rarest feats in club football, more so
I'm just surprised its not more of a media sensation but maybe that will happen over the next 10-14 days
marco
Well-Known Member
yes when or IF it gets down to 5 wins required them i'm sure Sky or the BBC will start beating the drum, Barca would it bother them ? my guess is noEven at this level and biggest clubs, I believe the pressure is always there and with the treble or quadruple being the rarest feats in club football, more so
I'm just surprised its not more of a media sensation but maybe that will happen over the next 10-14 days
Machiavelli
Well-Known Member
PEP BOTTLES QUADRUPLE
Mad Eyed Screamer
Moderator
Because the media have already written their happy ending to the season and City winning them all fucks their happy ending right up the streetEven at this level and biggest clubs, I believe the pressure is always there and with the treble or quadruple being the rarest feats in club football, more so
I'm just surprised its not more of a media sensation but maybe that will happen over the next 10-14 days