How many trophies will we win?

jaigurugoat said:
Sadly the chances are very slim. As pleased as I was about beating Swansea, I'm concerned that the FA Cup could derail our CL and PL chances. I do think we'll win the Cup but to win all four with the fixture pileup we now have would take something absolutely extraordinary.
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We have only the semi to worry about then the FA cup is done till after the seasons over.
Hardly think the brighton game is going to derail our season, we have 2 relatively easy games before it in fulham and cardiff and if we win the semi can cincentrate on the other 2.

Personally I,think the CL may affect us wining the league as spurs ajax/juve will all be tough games.

Priorites should be
Win remaining 3 comps but if not posible
Win league 1st and foremost,
Win league & FA cup (as seems more likely)
Win league amd champs league (tougher than PL & FAC)

A domestic treble is most certainly do-able and should happen, champs league would be a bonus.
 
TravisBickle said:
That plastic rag from Nottingham is fucking shitting himself in case City piss all over Utd’s 99 treble winning team by becoming the first English team to do the quadruple.
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They all are. They’ve only just nailed their colours to the ‘treble better achievement than 100 points’ mast, so they especially don’t want us to exceed that record.

Huge, huge ask, but I think this group of players is capable, both mentally and ability wise. It only takes two or three bad results and all we’ve got left is the FA Cup, however (assuming we beat Brighton) which I guess is what makes it so exciting. This season could still take so many different turns.

Can’t wait for the madness to start on Saturday.
 
route46 said:
True odds

Champions league 3.5 (28%)
Prem 1.45 (69%)
FA cup 1.4 (71%)

combined odds 7.1 or just over 6/1
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This discussion is getting confused between probabilities and odds and probabilities derived by fans and those from bookmakers over individual events which are then being combined together.

I think it's more informative to work out the Probability for each event yourself then convert it into a combined Probability for the quadruple and then quote that in odds for those people that are more used to betting odds. In my opinion betting odds are not a natural way to discuss Probability.

Competition------Probability
Premier League ----(60%)
FA Cup----------------(45%)
Champions League--(13%)

(To explain the Champions League Probability from Spurs 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. Anyone who quotes probability higher than this is highly questionable because the probability of 3 50/50 events occurring is 12.5%).

Quadruple Combined Probability using my footballing judgement is: 3.5%. In betting odds: about 28 to 1 (I think. I don't use betting odds, but I do use statistics).

The bookmakers odds for the quadruple are 9/2. That's why they make money because the real probability of the quadruple happening is still tiny, and they are making it appear much more likely that it is.
 
its a Barm said:
Give it up people, leave it to the media, one trophy at a time, see where it gets us.
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Correct, fulham next worry about that then going back top against cardiff.
Semi final after and then forget about cup if in the final until seasons over.
Champs league will sort itself out either way.
 
urban genie said:
Correct, fulham next worry about that then going back top against cardiff.
Semi final after and then forget about cup if in the final until seasons over.
Champs league will sort itself out either way.
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100% agree. Lets concentrate on one one game at a time. Dont jump ahead and forget important games.

Like next Saturday for example. ;)
 
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