How many trophies will we win?

Wafty Cranker said:
Every round is wrong imo. Roughly for the CL, round by round I’d say
QF 75%
SF 60%
Final 55%

That gives you just under 25% overall.

Out of interest, what chance would you give Spurs of going all the way?

You’ve got us at 46% for the FA Cup! Do you actually think there is more chance that Brighton, Wolves or Watford will win the Cup than City?

Surely you’ve got to fancy us to lift the FA Cup?
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Yes, I do think City are big favourites to win the FA Cup but the favourite does not have to be > 50%. Spurs chance? 0.35 x 0.45 x 0.35. Around 6%.

I did if for the whole lot and got in the 90s for the whole 8 clubs when added together so I'd have to alter them all a little but my approach works. You're forgetting that stupid stuff happens in these games. They are high intensity matches where a refereeing decision or the 1st goal can change a tie dramatically. See PSG v Utd, or City v Liverpool last season.
 
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cityboy1 said:
We have a very good shot at the fa cup and the league so i think 3 is definitely possible but champions league is where we'll fall short i think but a domestic treble would be a great season if it happens.
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Roughly evens on FA Cup and the Premier League marginally in our favour. Chances of a domestic treble are significant but the CL chances slash the chances of a Quadruple

Domestic Treble: League: 0.6, FA Cup: 0.45 = 27%
Quadruple: CL: 13% = 3-4%
 
I reckon us Barca and Juve are equal. So assuming we make it through the spurs game we meet 2 lots of .5, either becsuse we met the obvious 2 teams or they were knocked out in which case their Victor's deserve equal rating. I put us at .75 to beat spurs so that gives us about 18% for the CL.

League is still 50/50 and FA cup is maybe 60% so I'm at 5.4% for the quadruple. Pure stats and probability, none of this bookies trying to liberate mug punters from their hard earned!
 
NZBlue said:
I reckon us Barca and Juve are equal. So assuming we make it through the spurs game we meet 2 lots of .5, either becsuse we met the obvious 2 teams or they were knocked out in which case their Victor's deserve equal rating. I put us at .75 to beat spurs so that gives us about 18% for the CL.

League is still 50/50 and FA cup is maybe 60% so I'm at 5.4% for the quadruple. Pure stats and probability, none of this bookies trying to liberate mug punters from their hard earned!
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That makes sense. Treble is a slim possibility, quadruple still extraordinarily unlikely, largely down to the difficulty of winning the CL.
 
Talked to a fella lives opposite me and he's a Leyton Orient fan and he wants us to win the quad so that he can tell his cockney relatives to STFU about the rags treble winning season. Just to reiterate, we have a bunch of chimney sweeps arguing about who is the best Manchester team.

It's farcical.
 
Just been budgeting for the next couple of months, and I think winning the Quad (or even losing in the finals) will cost me £2.5k-£3k between now and the end of the season, which I will pay but definitely can't afford. The reality sinks in that there are too many games in not enough time, and the majority are away from home.

It will take its toll on the players so I can't see it happening, but hope we give it a good go.
 
marl0we said:
For what it's worth, a few stats sites have modelled City's likelihood of winning the PL and CL.

538 give us 66% chance of winning the league and 35% chance of winning the CL. That's ~23% chance of both.

Euro Club Index give us ~59% chance of winning the league and ~20% chance of winning the CL. That's ~11.5% chance of both.

Neither of them give a prediction for the FA Cup.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/
https://www.euroclubindex.com/league-odds/
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Bookies giving 9/2 fro the last 3 trophies, which implies an 18% chance if fair, and it is a novelty bet so they will take a big margin, and probably closer to 13%.

Any model that says Liverpool and Barcenlona are equal strength has to be questioned, especially the 538 prediction that Liverpool are 292% more likely to with the CL than Juve are.
 
Just done some interesting stats for you all. Yes, I have a spreadsheet, I’m sad :)

These are our percentage chances of winning 1, 2, 3, or 4 trophies this season:

Single: 17.44%
Double: 44.37%
Treble: 32.68%
Quad: 5.51%

We have more chance of winning a treble than we have of winning nothing else this season.

For completion, these are the assumptions I made to arrive at these figures, so you can tweak them however you like to get your own opinion of our chances:

League - I rated our chances at 55%

FA Cup - chance of beating Brighton (80%), chance of beating Wolves (my assumption) in the final (65%). Overall chance of winning the FA Cup = 52%

CL - chance of beating Spurs over 2 legs (70%), chance of beating Juventus over 2 legs (55%), chance of beating Barca in the final (50%). Overall chance of winning the CL = 19.25%.

To work out the chance of only winning 1 trophy you just multiply the odds of NOT winning any of these 3. So 0.45 x 0.48 x 0.8075.

Then do similar for each combination of double or treble and then sum them up.

So yeah, we are almost TWICE as likely from here to win a treble than win nothing else. Amazing really.
 
Marvin said:
Yes, I do think City are big favourites to win the FA Cup but the favourite does not have to be > 50%. Spurs chance? 0.35 x 0.45 x 0.35. Around 6%.

I did if for the whole lot and got in the 90s for the whole 8 clubs when added together so I'd have to alter them all a little but my approach works. You're forgetting that stupid stuff happens in these games. They are high intensity matches where a refereeing decision or the 1st goal can change a tie dramatically. See PSG v Utd, or City v Liverpool last season.
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I don't think anyone on here would dispute we're favourites for the FA Cup. What I was trying to get at is you have us at 46%, which means you must have the winner to come from Brighton, Watford or Wolves at 54%. So you think it is more likely that we don't win the FA Cup, than that we win it! Have some faith Marvin!

13% for the CL just makes no sense to me, and I think your numbers for the % of the rest of the teams won't add up to anywhere near 100%.

Overall, I have as at just under 12% for the quadruple vs your 3-4%. Oh well, it be boring if we all agreed I suppose!
 
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