You really think there’s a 55% chance of us winning the Champions League!? You best put your life savings on it then because the markets must be giving a lot of value in your eyes! By your estimation of our chances we should be about 4/5 to win it (5 divided by 9 is close to 55%). Odds on!
The bookies see it at around 29% chance, but they’ve got to make their money, so that’s still higher than reality. We wouldn’t even be 55% likely to win the final, unless there’s a shock team that makes it there, never mind winning the QF, SF and Final.