ICYMI - Seeing the Wood for FFPs - 2 part analysis (Semi-long reads)

The nature of the fine in 2014 is different in the article than reported in 2014 by everyone. Is this new information?

"breaches before the 2016-2017 reporting period are covered by the 2014 Settlement Agreement" For the agreed overspending, but it isn't about that any more. What is really on trial is did City lie in effect, and therefore City breaking the agreement making it voidable.

I am not saying they did or didn't as I like everyone on here doesn't know, and there must be some subjectivity to get this far. I can't see it being sorted by 17th June when the first relevant draw is, or the 1st leg on 23rd July.
 
Cheers Stefan, your insight is greatly appreciated. I didn’t realise there might not even have been a hearing. There are some many imponderables for the laymen to get their heads around, it borders on mesmerising. I have next to no idea what’s going on, but I do get the vibe that the AC are not a bunch of cowboys and (from a City point of view) that worries me, assuming City did actually present the evidence they believed was irrefutable

Sadly that is my view. It is reassuring to think AC are following a Uefa narrative but realistically these individuals have their professional reputation and would be full aware their decision-making would be scrutinised by CAS (CAS 2) and yet they still felt confident enough to impose such a severe punishment.

The best hope is that this ‘irrefutable evidence’ has not yet been viewed by the AC and this information could get the decision overturned, however (I may have got this wrong) but its been mentioned that CAS only look at the procedural side of decision-making which suggests even if it was overturned it may only be on a technicality, which would still leave our reputation sullied.

Additionally, although I agree wholeheartedly with the sentiment about FFP and its purpose to protect the biggest clubs, that will not be an appropriate argument to CAS and so that leaves, I presume, arguing over the thorny issue of the emails and their validity, which the club have not denied have been sent.

It is a shame were not fighting (only) the validity of FFP as this would gain us sympathy, support from the wider football world.

I just really hope this bullish stance by City is vindicated, the evidence will clear our name, make a mockery of UEFAs punishment and the decision will get overturned.
 
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Sadly that is my view. It is reassuring to think AC are following a Uefa narrative but realistically these individuals have their professional reputation and would be full aware their decision-making would be scrutinised by CAS (CAS 2) and yet they still felt confident enough to impose such a severe punishment.

The best hope is that this ‘irrefutable evidence’ has not yet been viewed by the AC and this information could get the decision overturned, however (I may have got this wrong) but its been mentioned that CAS only look at the procedural side of decision-making which suggests even if it was overturned it may only be on a technicality, which would still leave our reputation sullied.

Additionally, although I agree wholeheartedly with the sentiment about FFP and its purpose to protect the biggest clubs, that will not be an appropriate argument to CAS and so that leaves, I presume, arguing over the thorny issue of the emails and their validity, which the club have not denied have been sent.

It is a shame were not fighting (only) the validity of FFP as this would gain us sympathy, support from the wider football world.

I just really hope this bullish stance by City is vindicated, the evidence will clear our name, and make a mockery of UEFAs punishment and the decision will get overturned.

We've had our reputation sullied by the English media for over 10 years.
 
Whilst you’re often a little on the glass half Empty side, EB, I must say I concur with this view. City have no choice but to be bullish, whatever the truth. Some fans might be getting a bit carried away by this.

Hope you’re well, mate.

Evening DD, yes not too bad, although predictably stressing about this malarkey!

I’ve had some (albeit limited) dealings with the Courts in a work capacity, and the one constant has been the sheer unpredictability of events. Judges’ unique and unexpected interpretations of either evidence or the law itself, the reluctance of juries to convict, backstage negotiations, etc etc.

Part of me is loathe to believe that people like Sorriano would stand up and lie to us (the supporters), and that we would surely not be taking whatever path we’ve chosen without having sought and heeded the best legal advice money can buy, but I’m also concerned that that chosen path may lead only to a game of Russian Roulette. I think we already passed the point of no return when we (allegedly) told Ceferin to shove his deal up his arse, but in light of the AC’s decision (and Stefan has said they’re generally well thought of) I’m far from convinced that we haven’t misjudged what we’re dealing with. Being a financial/accountancy duffer I’m probably missing something obvious, but if our money has been properly accounted for, as we insist it has, then as part of the supporting elite in an autocracy I don’t know why we haven’t drawn a veil over proceedings by having Etihad open their books to show UEFA (however much it’s none of those nosey fuckers’ business) the relevant entries. Or maybe we already have and the AC has decided to place its faith in the hacked emails instead? To hang a 2 year ban on that though, would seem harsh in my opinion, but if they believe we lied then perhaps that would account for the severity.

Next up is CAS, and I’m not even fully sure what their remit is, but my spidey-senses lead me to think we may have to pull a real rabbit out of the hat to get anything out of them. Not because there isn’t obvious evidence of pre-judgement and leaking from the UEFA camp, and not because CAS are crooked, but because this is potentially the biggest decision they’ve ever had to make, and with a global spotlight burning down, I wouldn’t bet against them taking the safe option of preserving the status quo rather than the leap into the unknown.

The trouble for City is that if CAS go for the former and we then pursue UEFA through the Swiss Courts, whatever already limited support we have amongst the wider public, will evaporate in a heartbeat. The media certainly will go into complete meltdown about the “bullying cheats” effectively refusing to accept the decision of a reputable and independent body (albeit one whose potentially limited remit in this instance may not suit our needs), and we are probably outnumbered one hundred fold by rags, dippers and Arsenal fans as it is when it comes to the influence of opinion.

I have not the slightest inkling as to whether we’re guilty or not, but I do think that the deck is stacked in UEFA’s favour, however many City blogs I read telling me how much evidence we’ve got and how corrupt UEFA is. Our reputation has already been shot to pieces and in true, glass half empty, EB style, I’m not convinced it’s not gonna get a whole lot worse. I just don’t see a way out now in terms of a negotiated settlement. A shame as I’m sick and tired of the whole fucking business. I just want to go and watch my team without having a burning sense of anger and injustice bubbling inside me, and all over a deal that could barely be considered inflated in the fucking first place! Still, a long way to go and I like to think we have sufficient clout at governmental levels for any punishment to be suitably tempered, but it all feels very uneasy to me
 
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Evening DD, yes not too bad, although predictably stressing about this malarkey!

I’ve had some (albeit limited) dealings with the Courts in a work capacity, and the one constant has been the sheer unpredictability of events. Judges’ unique and unexpected interpretations of either evidence or the law itself, the reluctance of juries to convict, backstage negotiations, etc etc.

Part of me is loathe to believe that people like Sorriano would stand up and lie to us (the supporters), and that we would surely not be taking whatever path we’ve chosen without having sought and heeded the best legal advice money can buy, but I’m also concerned that that chosen path may lead only to a game of Russian Roulette. I think we already passed the point of no return when we (allegedly) told Ceferin to shove his deal up his arse, but in light of the AC’s decision (and Stefan has said they’re generally well thought of) I’m far from convinced that we haven’t misjudged what we’re dealing with. Being a financial/accountancy duffer I’m probably missing something obvious, but if our money has been properly accounted for, as we insist it has, then as part of the supporting elite in an autocracy I don’t know why we haven’t drawn a veil over proceedings by having Etihad open their books to show UEFA (however much it’s none of those nosey fuckers’ business) the relevant entries.

Next up is CAS, and I’m not even fully sure what their remit is, but my spidey-senses lead me to think we may have to pull a real rabbit out of the hat to get anything out of them. Not because there isn’t obvious evidence of pre-judgement and leaking from the UEFA camp, and not because CAS are crooked, but because this is potentially the biggest decision they’ve ever had to make, and with a global spotlight on them I wouldn’t bet against them taking the safe option of preserving the status quo rather than the leap into the unknown.

The trouble for City is that if CAS go for the former and we then pursue UEFA through the Swiss Courts, whatever already limited support we have amongst the wider public, will evaporate in a heartbeat. The media certainly will go into complete meltdown about the “bullying cheats” effectively refusing to accept the decision of a reputable and independent body (albeit one whose potentially limited remit in this instance may not suit our needs), and we are probably outnumbered one hundred fold by rags, dippers and Arsenal fans as it is.

I have not the slightest inkling as to whether we’re guilty or not, but I do think that the deck is stacked in UEFA’s favour, however many City blogs I read telling me how much evidence we’ve got and how corrupt UEFA is. Our reputation has already been shot to pieces and in true, glass half empty, EB style, I’m not convinced it’s not gonna get a whole lot worse. I just don’t see a way out now in terms of a negotiated settlement. A shame as I’m sick and tired of the whole fucking business. I just want to go and watch my team without having a burning sense of anger and injustice bubbling inside me, and all over a deal that could barely be considered inflated in the fucking first place!
Very well put and a view I would say many of us share.
 
Evening DD, yes not too bad, although predictably stressing about this malarkey!

I’ve had some (albeit limited) dealings with the Courts in a work capacity, and the one constant has been the sheer unpredictability of events. Judges’ unique and unexpected interpretations of either evidence or the law itself, the reluctance of juries to convict, backstage negotiations, etc etc.

Part of me is loathe to believe that people like Sorriano would stand up and lie to us (the supporters), and that we would surely not be taking whatever path we’ve chosen without having sought and heeded the best legal advice money can buy, but I’m also concerned that that chosen path may lead only to a game of Russian Roulette. I think we already passed the point of no return when we (allegedly) told Ceferin to shove his deal up his arse, but in light of the AC’s decision (and Stefan has said they’re generally well thought of) I’m far from convinced that we haven’t misjudged what we’re dealing with. Being a financial/accountancy duffer I’m probably missing something obvious, but if our money has been properly accounted for, as we insist it has, then as part of the supporting elite in an autocracy I don’t know why we haven’t drawn a veil over proceedings by having Etihad open their books to show UEFA (however much it’s none of those nosey fuckers’ business) the relevant entries. Or maybe we already have and the AC has decided to place its faith in the hacked emails instead? To hang a 2 year ban on that though, would seem harsh in my opinion, but if they believe we lied then perhaps that would account for the severity.

Next up is CAS, and I’m not even fully sure what their remit is, but my spidey-senses lead me to think we may have to pull a real rabbit out of the hat to get anything out of them. Not because there isn’t obvious evidence of pre-judgement and leaking from the UEFA camp, and not because CAS are crooked, but because this is potentially the biggest decision they’ve ever had to make, and with a global spotlight burning down, I wouldn’t bet against them taking the safe option of preserving the status quo rather than the leap into the unknown.

The trouble for City is that if CAS go for the former and we then pursue UEFA through the Swiss Courts, whatever already limited support we have amongst the wider public, will evaporate in a heartbeat. The media certainly will go into complete meltdown about the “bullying cheats” effectively refusing to accept the decision of a reputable and independent body (albeit one whose potentially limited remit in this instance may not suit our needs), and we are probably outnumbered one hundred fold by rags, dippers and Arsenal fans as it is when it comes to the influence of opinion.

I have not the slightest inkling as to whether we’re guilty or not, but I do think that the deck is stacked in UEFA’s favour, however many City blogs I read telling me how much evidence we’ve got and how corrupt UEFA is. Our reputation has already been shot to pieces and in true, glass half empty, EB style, I’m not convinced it’s not gonna get a whole lot worse. I just don’t see a way out now in terms of a negotiated settlement. A shame as I’m sick and tired of the whole fucking business. I just want to go and watch my team without having a burning sense of anger and injustice bubbling inside me, and all over a deal that could barely be considered inflated in the fucking first place! Still, a long way to go and I like to think we have sufficient clout at governmental levels for any punishment to be suitably tempered, but it all feels very uneasy to me

I agree with most of that. I’m just off to sleep now so can’t reply in any length but my gut feel is that both parties are posturing and we might end up with a 1 year ban.
 
Evening DD, yes not too bad, although predictably stressing about this malarkey!

I’ve had some (albeit limited) dealings with the Courts in a work capacity, and the one constant has been the sheer unpredictability of events. Judges’ unique and unexpected interpretations of either evidence or the law itself, the reluctance of juries to convict, backstage negotiations, etc etc.

Part of me is loathe to believe that people like Sorriano would stand up and lie to us (the supporters), and that we would surely not be taking whatever path we’ve chosen without having sought and heeded the best legal advice money can buy, but I’m also concerned that that chosen path may lead only to a game of Russian Roulette. I think we already passed the point of no return when we (allegedly) told Ceferin to shove his deal up his arse, but in light of the AC’s decision (and Stefan has said they’re generally well thought of) I’m far from convinced that we haven’t misjudged what we’re dealing with. Being a financial/accountancy duffer I’m probably missing something obvious, but if our money has been properly accounted for, as we insist it has, then as part of the supporting elite in an autocracy I don’t know why we haven’t drawn a veil over proceedings by having Etihad open their books to show UEFA (however much it’s none of those nosey fuckers’ business) the relevant entries. Or maybe we already have and the AC has decided to place its faith in the hacked emails instead? To hang a 2 year ban on that though, would seem harsh in my opinion, but if they believe we lied then perhaps that would account for the severity.

Next up is CAS, and I’m not even fully sure what their remit is, but my spidey-senses lead me to think we may have to pull a real rabbit out of the hat to get anything out of them. Not because there isn’t obvious evidence of pre-judgement and leaking from the UEFA camp, and not because CAS are crooked, but because this is potentially the biggest decision they’ve ever had to make, and with a global spotlight burning down, I wouldn’t bet against them taking the safe option of preserving the status quo rather than the leap into the unknown.

The trouble for City is that if CAS go for the former and we then pursue UEFA through the Swiss Courts, whatever already limited support we have amongst the wider public, will evaporate in a heartbeat. The media certainly will go into complete meltdown about the “bullying cheats” effectively refusing to accept the decision of a reputable and independent body (albeit one whose potentially limited remit in this instance may not suit our needs), and we are probably outnumbered one hundred fold by rags, dippers and Arsenal fans as it is when it comes to the influence of opinion.

I have not the slightest inkling as to whether we’re guilty or not, but I do think that the deck is stacked in UEFA’s favour, however many City blogs I read telling me how much evidence we’ve got and how corrupt UEFA is. Our reputation has already been shot to pieces and in true, glass half empty, EB style, I’m not convinced it’s not gonna get a whole lot worse. I just don’t see a way out now in terms of a negotiated settlement. A shame as I’m sick and tired of the whole fucking business. I just want to go and watch my team without having a burning sense of anger and injustice bubbling inside me, and all over a deal that could barely be considered inflated in the fucking first place! Still, a long way to go and I like to think we have sufficient clout at governmental levels for any punishment to be suitably tempered, but it all feels very uneasy to me
A 2 year ban on top of sanctions which have already been incurred for a £60m p.a sponsorship contract for stadium and shirts?

Ridiculous! Let us remember too that it was UEFA who changed their own rules and this has been documented and CAS will know this. Why have I never once read in the British football media an account of what UEFA did? Not once. And they think we are blinkered.

I am sure that city are right. However I think this is political and no one is going to do an Arab Sheikh a favour.
 
I wrote these 2 pieces for 9320. Miguel Delaney hated them which is the best endorsement I can think of. Give them a read if you want a more nuanced, precedent based analysis of the situation.

https://ninetythreetwenty.com/blog/seeing-the-wood-for-the-ffps-manchester-city-uefa-go-to-war/
https://ninetythreetwenty.com/blog/...e-ffps-part-deux-the-double-city-do-not-want/
A great read even if I am still non the wiser:), I was under the impression that City did have leeway when first punished, IE City getting the largest fine for a first time offence even though it was not the biggest failing, and part of that leeway was no historical action. but UEFA have gone with ( extraordinary new evidence ) i think that is the wording, that the leaked EMails are supposed to be
 
A 2 year ban on top of sanctions which have already been incurred for a £60m p.a sponsorship contract for stadium and shirts?

Ridiculous! Let us remember too that it was UEFA who changed their own rules and this has been documented and CAS will know this. Why have I never once read in the British football media an account of what UEFA did? Not once. And they think we are blinkered.

I am sure that city are right. However I think this is political and no one is going to do an Arab Sheikh a favour.

Totally. They're all terrorists right?

Part me wishes we just scratch the CL. Win the league and domestic treble for the next few years and then if the scenario is that we are indeed banned then we should refuse entry when it's offered

And in between we should contact FIFA and see if they are up for arranging a world club competion that involves all the leagues in the world... Playing knock out over two legs ... With no seedings.... And make the competition bigger than the CL and kiss goodbye to UEFA. How is that???????
 
I agree with most of that. I’m just off to sleep now so can’t reply in any length but my gut feel is that both parties are posturing and we might end up with a 1 year ban.
That is why they gave us a 2 year ban but not why we rejected a 1 year ban, personally i think this is going past CAS to the point where UEFA can not afford the cost of failure
 

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