Pulling this out from another thread. Put a bit of time into doing some research this afternoon and painted an interesting picture for myself.
Something we have to remember is that this current setback - major as it feels - won't last long. We're now so big, so well-run, and so successful, that we'll simply never fuck off from the top table for long ever again. If Pep or the players aren't pulling their weight, we simply change things in the summer and spend big bucks to get things right again. Should the 130 charges hit and slam us down the divisions, our sheer size will bring us back up inside 10 years, possibly sooner.
We simply have too much money now, and too big a following, for us to ever be relegated via normal means. Like it or not, that's just the way football is now - solid money keeps you safe. So long as you have a semi-decent structure and a lot of cash, it's basically impossible to fall on genuinely hard times. Whether through will, determination, cash, or other means, the turds that would sink in any other era of football just don't get fully flushed anymore.
Between the Second World War and the early 1980s, First Division title winners would expect to experience burnout the following season, or they wouldn't be able to keep a quality team and staff together for a 5 or 10-year stretch like you can now. It was just expected that great teams would have their day in the sun and then go back to mid-table (or lower) while another team got a turn at creating a few special memories for themselves.
Wolves won the First Divison in 1958 and 1959 and won the FA Cup in 1960, were almost relegated in 1962 and were finally relegated in 1965. Burnley won the First Division in 1960, collapsed to 9th by 1964 and were relegated in 1971 after years of finishing 12th-14th. West Brom won the League Cup in 1966 and the FA Cup in 1968, relegated in 1973. Derby County were First Division champions in 1972 and 1975, but were relegated in 1980.
You could even look at City: First Division winners in 1968, FA Cup in 1969, Cup Winners Cup in 1970, finished 11th in 1971. Then won the League Cup in 1976 and went for the title in 1977 - relegated in 1983. And United: won the first Division in 1967 and the European Cup in 1968, but were relegated in 1974. Leeds won everything in sight between 1968 and 1974 but were in Division Two by 1982.
Nottm Forest - won everything in sight between 1977 and 1980 but were a mid-table side once again by the mid-1980s, had a revival at the end of the 1980s but went from winning two consecutive League Cups in 1989 and 1990 to relegation in 1993. Aston Villa had a great period of success between 1972 and 1982 but were relegated in 1987. English football history is a story of constant rise and fall - that's why our pyramid system was the best.
The Premier League changed all that.
Look at what's happened to Chelsea, Arsenal, United, and Liverpool since 1992. They've all had dry spells and "banter eras" that were written about at the time as though they were catastrophes, but the lowest any of them have ever finished in the Premier League era is 10th (Chelsea in 2016). The lowest that any of Arsenal, United, and Liverpool have finished since 1992 is 8th - all of them have always finished between 1st-8th since the formation of the Premier League.
Since their last Premier League title in 2004, Arsenal have still won 5x FA Cups and 6x Comm Shields, have reached 3x League Cup finals and 1x Europa League final, and have been runners-up in the Premier League three times. Since their last title in 2013, United have won 2x FA Cups, 2x League Cups, 2x Comm Shields, 1x Europa League, and have been Premier League runners up twice. Hardly anything to shake a stick at.
And in the 30 years Liverpool went without a Premier League title, they still won 4x FA Cups, 6x League Cups, 1x UEFA Cup, 2x European Cups, 3x Super Cups/Club World Cups, 1x Comm Shield, were FA Cup runners-up twice, League Cup runners-up twice, European Cup runners-up three times, and Europa League runners-up once. So many legends and happy times have passed through the doors at the Emirates, Old Trafford, and Anfield in "bad times".
You can look across the continent as well, at Barcelona, AC Milan and Inter Milan, Juventus, Atletico Madrid, etc. European superpowers who dominated the footballing landscape 2000s and 2010s (or just the 2010s in Atleti's case). All have been hit with lean periods and financial scandals, etc. but they were all just too big to be flushed away or overtaken by the teams below them. And now they're all back at the very top table again.
I mean, fuck, look at City again. Yes, we were mediocre for a generation and sank all the way to the third tier. But, because we were Manchester City, one of biggest clubs in England, we were able to afford the players and staff who carried us all the way back to the top flight and kept us there within three years. It even gets said on Sky Sports after the 5-2 win at Stoke: "Twice league champions, FA Cup winners four times, League Cup winners twice, European Cup Winners Cup winners... are going down into Division Two."
It was a massive, massive shock, even in 1998, that a club our size could fall so far - but within two years we were back in the top flight and within 10 years we were a solid mid-table PL team again. Since the takeover, what we are now is so much bigger, run so much better, and so much more powerful that the "bad times" won't come for another generation, maybe longer. We'll definitely fall from the very, very top one day soon, but it'll never be that far.
The only team in recent years who've done an equivalent of a 60s, 70s-style rise and fall is Leicester. Premier League winners in 2016 and FA Cup winners in 2021, relegated in 2023. But even they only spent one year slapping second tier teams silly before getting right back into the big time. And the only team to really collapse from winners to (virtual) nobodies in a generation is Leeds, and that was enforced by serious financial mismanagement - and maybe Wigan or Portsmouth at a push, but again, serious financial negligence caused that.
If I was going to predict how things will look over the next decade (providing the 130 charges aren't proved), I think once Pep goes in 2027 there will be a downturn. But I think that downturn is going to look a lot better viewed as part of the bigger picture because what we've been building over the last 15 years. If all we have to show for ourselves between 2027 and 2037 is finishing 2nd-8th and winning the odd cup, what's the harm in that?
And see below.
