Iran shipping conflict

Makes sense

‘BREAKING: Hunt outlines plans for a new "European-led maritime protection mission to support safe passage of crew and cargo" in Gulf. He says he's had "construtive discussions" with Euro nations over weekend & will layout plans later this week. European allies will consider best way to "complement" the US proposed maritime force, says Hunt, but signals it will remain distinctly separate. Euro mission "will not be part of the US maximum pressure policy on Iran" because commitment to Iran nuclear deal remains.’

The whole shipping issue is a sideshow compared to the bigger issue which is that Iran has started to enrich uranium beyond the limits set.

The nuclear deal no longer stands or at the very least they have chosen to break it.

The proper response is maximum pressure via sanctions as the US are doing but more importantly we need to bring the US back to the table.

Otherwise what is the point in our response? Are we just allowing Iran to increase its nuclear capabilities, take ships and cause havoc in the Gulf?

We just look weak.
 
The whole shipping issue is a sideshow compared to the bigger issue which is that Iran has started to enrich uranium beyond the limits set.

The nuclear deal no longer stands or at the very least they have chosen to break it.

The proper response is maximum pressure via sanctions as the US are doing but more importantly we need to bring the US back to the table.

Otherwise what is the point in our response? Are we just allowing Iran to increase its nuclear capabilities, take ships and cause havoc in the Gulf?

We just look weak.

The US broke the deal months ago. Everything else flows from that.
 
Heartbreaking act of vandalism seeing the new ones bulldozed. Has doing that, losing the capability for a decade and buying the p8 really saved any money?

Nimrod was overbudget, relatively incapable and even dangerous. There just was no other alternative but to scrap it.

The P8 is an off the shelf option which will be cheaper, better interfaces with allies and is based upon a solid platform in service with hundreds of airlines.

The US broke the deal months ago. Everything else flows from that.

Iran has a deal with us and not the US.

Should we just sit and allow them to enjoy the benefits of the nuclear deal whilst they break it by enriching uranium and hijacking our ships?

We have to hold countries to the highest standards and yes that has to include the US but it also has to include Iran.
 
We seized their tanker, they reciprocated and seized ours. I don't think that we can really have any complaints. It was entirely predictable. They repeatedly made it clear what was going to happen if the UK failed to release their vessel and they allowed plenty of time for the politicians to rethink and reverse their actions. The real question is who authorised the seizure of their vessel in the first place. Why did they act against British interests to appease the US? It was unthinkably stupid and creates far more problems for the UK than it does for Iran.
 
We seized their tanker, they reciprocated and seized ours. I don't think that we can really have any complaints. It was entirely predictable. They repeatedly made it clear what was going to happen if the UK failed to release their vessel and they allowed plenty of time for the politicians to rethink and reverse their actions. The real question is who authorised the seizure of their vessel in the first place. Why did they act against British interests to appease the US? It was unthinkably stupid and creates far more problems for the UK than it does for Iran.

We seized a tanker suspected of illegally transporting oil to Syria or Yemen (can't remember which).

What was our tanker illegally doing?
 
We seized a tanker suspected of illegally transporting oil to Syria or Yemen (can't remember which).

What was our tanker illegally doing?

It was Syria and it was not illegal. The ship is charged with intending to violate EU sanctions, which is quite frankly ridiculous for a number of reasons. Foremost, because EU sanctions are not legally binding for non-EU member states. Hence the charge levelled against the UK of engaging in piracy. Only international law applies. That is guaranteed by freedom of navigation. Technically, it was illegal for the UK to seize the Iranian vessel. Also, technically, it was illegal for Iran to seize the British vessel.
 
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It was Syria and it was not illegal. The ship is charged with intending to violate EU sanctions, which is quite frankly ridiculous for a number of reasons. Foremost, because EU sanctions are not legally binding for non-EU member states. Hence the charge levelled against the UK of engaging in piracy. Only international law applies. That is guaranteed by freedom of navigation. Technically, it was illegal for the UK to seize the Iranian vessel. Also, technically, it was illegal for Iran to seize the British vessel.

Fair enough I always thought the sanctions were UN sanctions but yes it seems they are EU ones though the removal of the UN sanctions was conditional on the nuclear deal which has been broken... Wasn't the Iranian ship in British waters anyway?

In any event it doesn't excuse the stupidity and tit for tat on all sides. Trump has been the ultimate moron in all of this but he has to come to the table. In the meantime we still can't allow Iran to startup a nuclear weapons program or act aggressively unchecked.
 
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Fair enough I always thought the sanctions were UN sanctions but yes it seems they are EU ones though the removal of the UN sanctions was conditional on the nuclear deal which has been broken... Wasn't the Iranian ship in British waters anyway?

The Spanish claim that the Iranian vessel was in Spanish waters. Regardless, it was still illegal to seize the vessel since freedom of navigation applies. The UK is on extremely shaky legal ground. I would not be surprised if the Iranians take the government to court and win an enormous settlement, courtesy of the British taxpayer. You'd have thought that this government would have learned from it's recent payout to Iran's Mellat bank: https://www.ft.com/content/58c4ae5c-91b0-11e9-b7ea-60e35ef678d2

The US withdrew from the deal and so it is the US that is non-compliant. Following this, Iran now has no obligation to abide by the JCPOA. The JCPOA explicitly allows for Iran to withdraw from its commitments in the event that any other party is non-compliant. Iran is therefore now only required to comply with international law, which prohibits NPT signatories from acquiring nuclear weapons. As far as I am aware, the IAEA have not indicated that Iran is violating the NPT and so they continue to meet all their commitments.

The UN sanctions on Iran were a response to a belief/suspicion that Iran was covertly developing nuclear weapons in contravention to the NPT, which it had no obligation to sign in the first place. We know, for example, that India, Pakistan and Israel acquired nuclear weapons and did not sign the NPT, but have so far escaped without consequence. Nuclear-related sanction have always appeared entirely politically motivated, where one rule applies for some and not for others. It is the Americans that seem to act as judge, jury and executioner. They are able to steamroll other nation states at the UN by coercing them at the threat of third party sanctions.

In any event it doesn't excuse the stupidity and tit for tat on all sides. Trump has been the ultimate moron in all of this but he has to come to the table. In the meantime we still can't allow Iran to startup a nuclear weapons program or act aggressively unchecked.

I think Iran would be extremely unwise not to procure nuclear weapons. History shows that it is the only means of deterring aggression from the more powerful nation states. North Korea aside, which is limited by its second-strike capability, the US would not threaten to "obliterate" China or Russia. The US would not have invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya or Syria if they had nuclear weapons. Russia would not have invaded Crimea if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons. The US would not be threatening Iran if it had nuclear weapons. It is clearly in Iran's interests to procure the means of defending itself against a far larger and more powerful hegemonic regime that has surrounded it with military bases on all sides and threatens its destruction on a daily basis. In any case, the NPT is an illegitimate construct at this moment in time. The NPT requires the current nuclear states to reduce their nuclear-weapons to zero. Given that no nuclear state is even intending to abide by their commitments, why should the non-nuclear signatories to the NPT abide by their commitments?

The solution is simple: The UK releases Iran's vessel which it illegally seized whist Iran, as a gesture of goodwill, releases the British-flagged vessel. The US returns to the JCPOA whilst Iran returns to meeting its commitments under the deal. In both cases it is clear that the US and UK have intentionally caused the crises. I think the UK will eventually back down, because it stands to lose far more and it has no ability to coerce Iran through military means. The nuclear issue will be resolved if and when the Democrats win back the presidency.
 

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