Iran shipping conflict

Homar said:
The Spanish claim that the Iranian vessel was in Spanish waters. Regardless, it was still illegal to seize the vessel since freedom of navigation applies. The UK is on extremely shaky legal ground. I would not be surprised if the Iranians take the government to court and win an enormous settlement, courtesy of the British taxpayer. You'd have thought that this government would have learned from it's recent payout to Iran's Mellat bank: https://www.ft.com/content/58c4ae5c-91b0-11e9-b7ea-60e35ef678d2

The US withdrew from the deal and so it is the US that is non-compliant. Following this, Iran now has no obligation to abide by the JCPOA. The JCPOA explicitly allows for Iran to withdraw from its commitments in the event that any other party is non-compliant. Iran is therefore now only required to comply with international law, which prohibits NPT signatories from acquiring nuclear weapons. As far as I am aware, the IAEA have not indicated that Iran is violating the NPT and so they continue to meet all their commitments.

The UN sanctions on Iran were a response to a belief/suspicion that Iran was covertly developing nuclear weapons in contravention to the NPT, which it had no obligation to sign in the first place. We know, for example, that India, Pakistan and Israel acquired nuclear weapons and did not sign the NPT, but have so far escaped without consequence. Nuclear-related sanction have always appeared entirely politically motivated, where one rule applies for some and not for others. It is the Americans that seem to act as judge, jury and executioner. They are able to steamroll other nation states at the UN by coercing them at the threat of third party sanctions.



I think Iran would be extremely unwise not to procure nuclear weapons. History shows that it is the only means of deterring aggression from the more powerful nation states. North Korea aside, which is limited by its second-strike capability, the US would not threaten to "obliterate" China or Russia. The US would not have invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya or Syria if they had nuclear weapons. Russia would not have invaded Crimea if Ukraine had not given up its nuclear weapons. The US would not be threatening Iran if it had nuclear weapons. It is clearly in Iran's interests to procure the means of defending itself against a far larger and more powerful hegemonic regime that has surrounded it with military bases on all sides and threatens its destruction on a daily basis. In any case, the NPT is an illegitimate construct at this moment in time. The NPT requires the current nuclear states to reduce their nuclear-weapons to zero. Given that no nuclear state is even intending to abide by their commitments, why should the non-nuclear signatories to the NPT abide by their commitments?

The solution is simple: The UK releases Iran's vessel which it illegally seized whist Iran, as a gesture of goodwill, releases the British-flagged vessel. The US returns to the JCPOA whilst Iran returns to meeting its commitments under the deal. In both cases it is clear that the US and UK have intentionally caused the crises. I think the UK will eventually back down, because it stands to lose far more and it has no ability to coerce Iran through military means. The nuclear issue will be resolved if and when the Democrats win back the presidency.
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carbon copy: @Ban-jani
Read and inwardly digest.
 
inbetween said:
Nimrod was overbudget, relatively incapable and even dangerous. There just was no other alternative but to scrap it.
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Sorry, that’s utter bollocks. Most of the problems had been fixed and solutions were available for the rest. It had superior capability to the P8 but cost slightly more to operate. The first production aircraft had been handed over to the RAF and was starting operational evaluation before going into service in 2012. It was cancelled for political reasons only. The government were looking for projects to cancel in the wake of the global financial crisis and Nimrod was one of the few solely British projects that we didn’t have to extricate ourselves from international partnerships. BAE didn’t kick up too much of a fuss because they had been paid 95% of the total cost already and were more worried about the carriers not getting cancelled. It was fucking outrageous that the government effectively wrote off nearly £4bn already spent with only a few million to go when they must have known that a few years later they would be forced to buy the capability from abroad and sure enough ordered £3bn worth of P8s a couple of years later when everyone had lost interest. That was Cameron and that moron Liam Fox who were responsible for that fiasco.
 
So the UK is backing down, which was entirely predictable given that it has no legal footing to stand on. I'd imagine that the government has made some concessions as part of the agreement in order to avoid the embarrassment of being dragged before the courts again. This episode has damaged the UK's credibility and further inflamed tensions in the Persian Gulf. All this to please the Americans.
 
Homar said:
So the UK is backing down, which was entirely predictable given that it has no legal footing to stand on. I'd imagine that the government has made some concessions as part of the agreement in order to avoid the embarrassment of being dragged before the courts again. This episode has damaged the UK's credibility and further inflamed tensions in the Persian Gulf. All this to please the Americans.
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We're going to have to get used to taking it up the arsenal from the good old USA.
 
Len Rum said:
We're going to have to get used to taking it up the arsenal from the good old USA.
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Yep. US have applied to have the tanker seized stopping the release. I assume they told the UK in advance and we put up no objection.
 
Homar said:
So the UK is backing down, which was entirely predictable given that it has no legal footing to stand on. I'd imagine that the government has made some concessions as part of the agreement in order to avoid the embarrassment of being dragged before the courts again. This episode has damaged the UK's credibility and further inflamed tensions in the Persian Gulf. All this to please the Americans.
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Tanker has now been released.
* @Ban-jani * alert
* @Ban-jani * alert
 
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