Irish Current Affairs.

[Saddleworth2]

Sadds;
If Scotland voted and NI voted to leave the UK alongside England/Wales finally biting the bullet around membership of the single market you could see a number of solutions opening up.

Not sure if it’s just a punctuation thing Sadds, but explain your thought process here please.

Nothing particularly sophisticated mate and it may well be fluff.
1) two countries NI and Scotland decide they want to leave the Uk. Unequivocally . Teamwork makes the dream work .
2) Both nations + Remain Uk want closer relations to EU/SM either from a political or trade or both perspective
3) EU are warm to no 2.
4) sensible politicians and leaders can talk and negotiate for the five entities
5) there are enough shared objectives that a transition plan covering currencies, trade agreements , mutual support and a target operating model might be possible.

Probably pie in the sky but the alternate future is grim for Scotland/ NI and remain Uk.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Nothing particularly sophisticated mate and it may well be fluff.
1) two countries NI and Scotland decide they want to leave the Uk. Unequivocally . Teamwork makes the dream work .
2) Both nations + Remain Uk want closer relations to EU/SM either from a political or trade or both perspective
3) EU are warm to no 2.
4) sensible politicians and leaders can talk and negotiate for the five entities
5) there are enough shared objectives that a transition plan covering currencies, trade agreements , mutual support and a target operating model might be possible.

Probably pie in the sky but the alternate future is grim for Scotland/ NI and remain Uk.

Ok. I was missing no. 2 somehow.
Just for further clarification, would you be contemplating Remain Eng/Wales
joining NI/Scotland outside the UK?.
That seems a little bit of a stretch if you don’t mind me saying Sadds.
If you get to that stage there is no UK.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Ok. I was missing no. 2 somehow.
Just for further clarification, would you be contemplating Remain Eng/Wales
joining NI/Scotland outside the UK?.
That seems a little bit of a stretch if you don’t mind me saying Sadds.
If you get to that stage there is no UK.

No. Remain Uk is eng wales.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

No. Remain Uk is eng wales.

I’m revisiting in the cold light of day.
So are you suggesting that you (NI/Scotland) would liaise separately or negotiate further alliance with Remain Wales/England, if and when they take the majority in parliament.

Forgive me Sadds, I’m still vague on the overall proposal.
I thought last night it was the Tullamore Dew, but I’m still slightly sketchy on the detail.

Maybe you have what I’m asking in item no.4
Just wondering is this as a shadow cabinet like the suggestions are about Starmer at the moment, or are you talking about when they come to power.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I’m revisiting in the cold light of day.
So are you suggesting that you (NI/Scotland) would liaise separately or negotiate further alliance with Remain Wales/England, if and when they take the majority in parliament.

Forgive me Sadds, I’m still vague on the overall proposal.
I thought last night it was the Tullamore Dew, but I’m still slightly sketchy on the detail.

Maybe you have what I’m asking in item no.4
Just wondering is this as a shadow cabinet like the suggestions are about Starmer at the moment, or are you talking about when they come to power.

There is no detail mate. Just sketching an imaginary scenario where things might be easier than they are today. Let me try again.

1. both Scotland and NI populace show an unarguable desire to leave the U.K.
2. Both Scotland and NI want to rejoin the EU
3. At the same time, there is a growing desire in ‘Remaining U.K.’ (England and Wales) To improve trading/travel/joint working with the EU.
4. The EU is ‘warm‘ to all of the above
5. there are sensible people in charge/ leading negotiations for all five entities (Scotland, NI, Ireland, Remaining U.K., EU). All parties want to make a deal, all parties want to be long term partners with each other. (That means Remaining U.K. is governed by adults rather than the cretins in the current government)

So that is an imaginary scenario where all five entities can see a future upside be it repairing the economy, unification, independence or simply growing the existing club (EU).

before I say any more does that make sense? Is that a realistic scenario within say five years? If the answer is maybe then I think such a scenario would be a more helpful and effective environment in which to plan the real work to achieve all those objectives for all five entities. Pie in the sky maybe but a Brexit like uncoupling will be as big a disaster as Brexit was and to avoid it we would need something like this scenario where multiple stars align.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

There is no detail mate. Just sketching an imaginary scenario where things might be easier than they are today. Let me try again.

1. both Scotland and NI populace show an unarguable desire to leave the U.K.
2. Both Scotland and NI want to rejoin the EU
3. At the same time, there is a growing desire in ‘Remaining U.K.’ (England and Wales) To improve trading/travel/joint working with the EU.
4. The EU is ‘warm‘ to all of the above
5. there are sensible people in charge/ leading negotiations for all five entities (Scotland, NI, Ireland, Remaining U.K., EU). All parties want to make a deal, all parties want to be long term partners with each other. (That means Remaining U.K. is governed by adults rather than the cretins in the current government)

So that is an imaginary scenario where all five entities can see a future upside be it repairing the economy, unification, independence or simply growing the existing club (EU).

before I say any more does that make sense? Is that a realistic scenario within say five years? If the answer is maybe then I think such a scenario would be a more helpful and effective environment in which to plan the real work to achieve all those objectives for all five entities. Pie in the sky maybe but a Brexit like uncoupling will be as big a disaster as Brexit was and to avoid it we would need something like this scenario where multiple stars align.

No that makes sense to me. Like you say it may well be pie in the sky, but it is a valid alternative to the current Brexit thread debates.

I like the sketch, let’s say, but the padding out with detail would be very interesting. What you would even be talking about regarding reunification for ourselves would greatly be determined by what is left of the UK in your scenario.

 

[Saddleworth2]

No that makes sense to me. Like you say it may well be pie in the sky, but it is a valid alternative to the current Brexit thread debates.

I like the sketch, let’s say, but the padding out with detail would be very interesting. What you would even be talking about regarding reunification for ourselves would greatly be determined by what is left of the UK in your scenario.

Some big questions clearly. Would unionist NI feel as strong a pull to the Union if it was clear that Scotland was going to leave it? Would it be possible to offer a similar solution to Unionists in both Scotland and Ireland - joint citizenship of their native countries and 'Remain UK'. Could trade concessions be offered to NI/Scotland/Remain UK by the EU as part of a transition state. Sterling could be retained by NI/Scotland/ as a transition state. End state, single Ireland, independent Scotland with many citizens with joint citizenship. Remaining UK an associate member of the EU enjoying all freedom of movement and trade without the political commitments, Scotland a full member. Euro and Sterling ultimately linked in some way....Its nice to dream.....

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Some big questions clearly. Would unionist NI feel as strong a pull to the Union if it was clear that Scotland was going to leave it? Would it be possible to offer a similar solution to Unionists in both Scotland and Ireland - joint citizenship of their native countries and 'Remain UK'. Could trade concessions be offered to NI/Scotland/Remain UK by the EU as part of a transition state. Sterling could be retained by NI/Scotland/ as a transition state. End state, single Ireland, independent Scotland with many citizens with joint citizenship. Remaining UK an associate member of the EU enjoying all freedom of movement and trade without the political commitments, Scotland a full member. Euro and Sterling ultimately linked in some way....Its nice to dream.....

Sadds for Prez.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Sadds for Prez.

Indeed. You didn’t give an opinion though. What we ups you like to see ideally.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Indeed. You didn’t give an opinion though. What we ups you like to see ideally.

Well regarding the questions you ask re: Scotland and Northern Ireland relations and could it replace a UK relationship, or could Scotland have the same dual citizenship as Northern Ireland within an EU setting…… hmmmm!

I find it difficult to visualise an end product but love the think tank idea involving the 5 protagonists. I do think that is something that’s possible, for sensible adults in the room.

I do love the concept of a disbanded UK and and a new Scottish/Irish partnership but in reality it’s not necessary if you rejoin the EU and it’s not a solution either, in keeping with the GFA, for Northern Irish people who still have their British citizenship guaranteed.
And if you are talking about the same dual citizenship for Scotland within the UK and the EU, well that’s a separate discussion nothing to do with Ireland.
That’s a discussion between you and the UK and the EU of course.

I’m struggling to get my head around final solutions, but as I’ve said I like the think tank cooperative idea.

What I hope this does, is give you a glimpse into a Southern concern regarding our own complexities and concerns if we ever get to the stage where we are asked, do we want reunification.
The importance will be in the detail and I can see it being 10 times more frightening and Complex for our brethren up North.