Julian Alvarez | Signs for City (see main forum)

[River Plate]

Welcome!
You make a lot of sense:)

I personally have no doubt about Alvarez being a huge talent. If he is good enough to start at City on the other hand, time will tell, hopefully he is. Many huge talents and senior internationals have failed before him, and will probably fail after him as well. I would prefer if we just signed him immediately, since the "discount" on the release clause by letting him stay on a loan is so small it basically doesnt make any difference for us.

The main thing about the loan, from my perspective, is not if we let you keep him on loan until the summer though. That part I have no problems with really, even if I see no real logical reason to not just pay the full release fee and get him now. Its if we would let you keep him to the end of October, making it impossible for him to join here before next January because of the transfer windows. Since his contract is expiring, it makes no sense to me to pay money for him now, if we wont get him before his contract expires anyway. Why would we just not sign him on a free then?
From my perspective, as a City fan, it sounds like a tremendous deal for River, getting to both sell and keep the player at the same time.
For City it just seems like a strange thing to pay for something you could get for free.

In short:
Paying the release clause and get him here now = Makes sense
Paying a little smaller fee, and loan him out to the summer = Makes some sense
Paying a fee, having him join in a year when his contract expires = Makes no sense at all

Yeah, I agree is a great deal for River, so I'm hoping it gets made. Honestly I don't care about the money, I just want to keep him untill the end of Copa Libertadores.

On the City side of things I think there's a couple of things mangement might be considering:

1) Although you are right that the difference between what City is supposedly going to pay and the clause isn't much, there's a huge difference in the financiation. If City were to pay the clause, they have to pay all upfront, including taxes. With this, they surely got a more relaxed payment deal.

2) Another thing to consider is that although Álvarez has only 11 months remaining on his contract, he and his manager are already on record saying that Julian won't become a free agent. So the speculation of waiting to get him for free doesn't seem to be a real option.

3) Lastly, with that future contract extension and the WC coming up (Álvarez is projected to be part of the Argie squad) Julian's price tag will surely go up. So City management must be thinking "better to secure him now than having to pay double the price after the WC".

 

[Vester]

Why is it strange, We are essentially using a bit of the profit from the Torres deal to guarantee we sign Alvarez. Why give it any longer than required for some other club to come in and offer him a pre-contract etc.

The way I see it, I cant see any logical reason to why we wouldn't just get him over here right away and use him a year more for only 5M more. The only reason I can think of would be that we dont think he is good enough to contribute right away, but I dont see how another year in Argentina, where he already has won everything, would change that in a years time. And if we do think he is not good enough right now, why would securing him now be so important that we cant risk anyone else giving us competition for him in 5 months? We are Man City ffs, one of the most attractive clubs in the world.

In short:
If we do think he is good enough, is it really worth saving 5M to basically loan him out for a year (to a league he has already dominated in) when we have a place for him in the squad now?
If we dont think he is good enough right now, why should we be desperate to sign him right away when there is a chance we can get him at the same time for free?

 

[Vester]

Yeah, I agree is a great deal for River, so I'm hoping it gets made. Honestly I don't care about the money, I just want to keep him untill the end of Copa Libertadores.

On the City side of things I think there's a couple of things mangement might be considering:

1) Although you are right that the difference between what City is supposedly going to pay and the clause isn't much, there's a huge difference in the financiation. If City were to pay the clause, they have to pay all upfront, including taxes. With this, they surely got a more relaxed payment deal.

2) Another thing to consider is that although Álvarez has only 11 months remaining on his contract, he and his manager are already on record saying that Julian won't become a free agent. So the speculation of waiting to get him for free doesn't seem to be a real option.

3) Lastly, with that future contract extension and the WC coming up (Álvarez is projected to be part of the Argie squad) Julian's price tag will surely go up. So City management must be thinking "better to secure him now than having to pay double the price after the WC".

I would hope so too if I was a River fan!

1) You are correct in this. Although since the fee is not that big (for a Premier League club that is, different economic realities I know), I'm sure paying it all off in one go wouldn't be a huge issue if we had to. In the books its all the same basically, no matter the payment structure.

2) This makes more sense and explains a lot, thanks!

3) Yeah I can understand that thinking. But then again, if we think he is so good he is going to have a good WC with Argentina this year, I would also think he would be good enough to be a part of our squad today. And if he is, why would we not just get him right away, when the only difference would be a few million and a payment structure (from our point of view, basically nothing compared to what we spend on transfers). I'm obviously only talking from how I see it from Citys point of view, but to loan a player out that could contribute right away, only to save a couple of million (which would be divided over the years of his contract in the books anyway), doesnt make much sense to us, in my opinion!
Sure there is a risk his price could go up (but its no certainty), but there is also a risk he could get a serious injury. If it was an 18 year old player who had limited experience you could argue it would make sense to let him stay to develop, but Alvarez has already won the league and the golden boot in Argentina. I doubt him staying in River another year will make him much more ready than he already is to join City, but thats just my guess:)

 

[decmancity]

In short:
If we do think he is good enough, is it really worth saving 5M to basically loan him out for a year (to a league he has already dominated in) when we have a place for him in the squad now?
If we dont think he is good enough right now, why should we be desperate to sign him right away when there is a chance we can get him at the same time for free?

Pep has made it pretty clear there is no spots in the squad, we can barely get an academy player on the bench some weeks.

Him joining now would be shit, I dont see how pulling some poor lad from his family and friends and throwing him into the cauldron of a potential treble season is at all healthy for him.

We clearly think hes very talented so we have moved to secure him, pretty simple. Why bother waiting till hes available on a free, we haven't done that with anyone else before.

By all accounts they want to buy Castellanos from NYCFC with the Alvarez money, so essentially the lad is going to cost us nothing if you imagine the CFG bank account is just one big pot.

Pep might want him to continue to develop in Argentina, start to learn English and start baking banana bread before he arrives before we know.

Our season won't hinge on some 21yr old joining from River Plate so why rush it.

 

[Vester]

Pep has made it pretty clear there is no spots in the squad, we can barely get an academy player on the bench some weeks.

Him joining now would be shit, I dont see how pulling some poor lad from his family and friends and throwing him into the cauldron of a potential treble season is at all healthy for him.

We clearly think hes very talented so we have moved to secure him, pretty simple. Why bother waiting till hes available on a free, we haven't done that with anyone else before.

By all accounts they want to buy Castellanos from NYCFC with the Alvarez money, so essentially the lad is going to cost us nothing if you imagine the CFG bank account is just one big pot.

Pep might want him to continue to develop in Argentina, start to learn English and start baking banana bread before he arrives before we know.

Our season won't hinge on some 21yr old joining from River Plate so why rush it.

Pulling a poor lad from his family and friends, he is 22 ffs, one year younger than Dias when he joined and 2 years older than Ferran was when we signed him. Joining us would be a dream and an opportunity of a lifetime.

Yeah why get something for free, when you can pay for it, because thats what we normally do..
Have no problem with securing a talent, just think its weird why we would pay a decent amount for a senior player not many years from his prime and then loan him out to a league he has already mastered and are unlikely to develop much further in.

He might, but I doubt Pep has any major part of where he is getting loaned out, if we loan him out, since Txiki handles that. Pep focuses on the players we have here.
In my opinion I think loaning him out to a league, were he has already been the best player and won everything in, will not make him more ready to join City in a year than what he is today. I can of course be wrong, and I trust the club knows better than me, but to me it doesnt make much sense.

Never said it would be. Just as our future wont hinge on some 22 year old from the Argentinian league, so why rush signing him?

I'm sure Txiki and the club knows what they are doing and it will all work out fine. Its just that to me, not knowing all the facts, the move as its being reported in the media, seems a bit strange.

 

[decmancity]

Pulling a poor lad from his family and friends, he is 22 ffs, one year younger than Dias when he joined and 2 years older than Ferran was when we signed him. Joining us would be a dream and an opportunity of a lifetime.

Yeah why get something for free, when you can pay for it, because thats what we normally do..
Have no problem with securing a talent, just think its weird why we would pay a decent amount for a senior player not many years from his prime and then loan him out to a league he has already mastered and are unlikely to develop much further in.

He might, but I doubt Pep has any major part of where he is getting loaned out, if we loan him out, since Txiki handles that. Pep focuses on the players we have here.
In my opinion I think loaning him out to a league, were he has already been the best player and won everything in, will not make him more ready to join City in a year than what he is today. I can of course be wrong, and I trust the club knows better than me, but to me it doesnt make much sense.

Never said it would be. Just as our future wont hinge on some 22 year old from the Argentinian league, so why rush signing him?

I'm sure Txiki and the club knows what they are doing and it will all work out fine. Its just that to me, not knowing all the facts, the move as its being reported in the media, seems a bit strange.

So because Dias has turned out great that means this lad will as well. Completely irrelevant but fine.

There is no guarantee you get him for free, why bother taking the risk? If we want someone, we go and get them.

If Pep wanted him in the squad he would, as it is turning out, its not that important. So Txiki is doing the best for the lad, River Plate and City.

Yeah I think they do know what they are doing, so the only discussion is about Alvarez and his ability. When he arrives or where he goes on loan is irrelevant.

 

[Vester]

So because Dias has turned out great that means this lad will as well. Completely irrelevant but fine.

There is no guarantee you get him for free, why bother taking the risk? If we want someone, we go and get them.

If Pep wanted him in the squad he would, as it is turning out, its not that important. So Txiki is doing the best for the lad, River Plate and City.

Yeah I think they do know what they are doing, so the only discussion is about Alvarez and his ability. When he arrives or where he goes on loan is irrelevant.

No I just said since he is 22 and not 14 he is probably ready to move away from mommy, and if he is not there is no point in signing him anyway.

No there is no guarantee. But as you said, if we want someone, we go get them. If we dont want him in the team right now, I think we should go get him when and if we want him instead, since he is not a youth player that will gain valuable experience from staying where he is. Thats just my opinion.

With that mindset everything we write on the transfer forum is completely irrelevant, since none of it matters anyway. I think its important where and if we send players on loan, and I like to discuss it. If you dont want to discuss it, just dont do it:)

 

[Coatigan]

The way I see it, I cant see any logical reason to why we wouldn't just get him over here right away and use him a year more for only 5M more. The only reason I can think of would be that we dont think he is good enough to contribute right away, but I dont see how another year in Argentina, where he already has won everything, would change that in a years time. And if we do think he is not good enough right now, why would securing him now be so important that we cant risk anyone else giving us competition for him in 5 months? We are Man City ffs, one of the most attractive clubs in the world.

In short:
If we do think he is good enough, is it really worth saving 5M to basically loan him out for a year (to a league he has already dominated in) when we have a place for him in the squad now?
If we dont think he is good enough right now, why should we be desperate to sign him right away when there is a chance we can get him at the same time for free?

I thought similar initially, I really did. But River Plate above does talk sense and raise a an alternative that makes sense.

The club rely a lot on honesty and trust. If a player says they want to come, happy to wait. If they decided waiting isnt worth it, they knew why and what's worth what.

We are yet to see if it materialises and i what format, details etc. So let's revisit when it is more substantial.

 

[jamesha]

Could paying a fee for him now rather than waiting for him to be available on a free be a statement of City's belief in the player's worth which Alvarez will value?

In his position it would mean a lot to me that a club was willing to do that. It also shows clubs from that region that City are a decent club to do business with and are not just vultures trying to strip them of their best prospects for little or no reward.

These things are worth something in my opinion but the fee and signing are a bit of a gamble. I really hope the lad does well and makes it at City as it feels a bit odd not having an Argentinian in the squad after so many years of Zabba, Kun etc.

 

[Withnail]

Hello, hardcore River Plate fan here. I was interested on seeing what you had to say about Álvarez. Initially I was planning on just lurking but I couldn't help myself and I wanted to provide some River fan perspective to some of your doubts.

1) First, I wanted to start by saying that it impossible to guess which Argie players will do well in Europe and which won't.

I've seen great Argie players that I was sure will do great in Europe and then flopped, and I've seen players that were mediocre down here and then went to Europe and became stars.

With that said, Julian is a freaking beast. He won us the league almost all by himself. Best player in South America by far. Getting the best player from South America is surely the safest best outside of Europe.

2) The loan thing. Like I said, Álvarez is about 70% of our team, so River is not desperate to sell him. In fact they don't want to sell him, specially so cheap. That's why originally the management said that they wouldn't enter in negotiations in regards to Álvarez. You want him? Pay the clause. But apparently River has a good relationship with the City Group and they got to a compromise where City would secure Álvarez for less than the clause, if they let him stay here in River, at least, until June.

3) I've seen some people mock the defending because of a few youtube clips. What did you expect? It is the highlights video of the best player in SA, of course the defending will look bad haha. Go watch a highlights video of Messi and he makes the defending of the best teams in the World look bad. You are mistaken if you think the defending here is a lot lower than what teams like Newcastle, Leeds or Villa present.

4) I've also seen some doubts about Julian only getting noticed now at 21. The thing is he started playing as a number 9 last year. Before that we had a pair of strikers that did a lot of great things for our squad, so Gallardo wasn't going to sub them for a 20 year old, no matter how good. That's why Álvarez switched between starter and sub for a couple year and never had the chance of trully playing as a striker. He played a lot as a winger and even midfielder. As soon as he was given the chance to play as a number 9, he exploded.

Álvarez is wonderkid the likes of Agüero and Tevez. There has always been buzz around him, is just that River has had a lot of good strikers recently blocking him. At age 11 he tried out for Real Madrid and scored 4 or 5 goals, Madrid wanted to keep him but legally couldn't because he was too young. He has also played at every level with the National Squad, including winning the Copa America with the major.

Hopefully this insight from a guy that has seen every Álvarez match helps. Cheers.

Cheers for the info, Alvarez sounds like a very exciting talent. In your opinion what are his main strengths?