Kazakhstan passenger plane crash

ChicagoBlue said:
However, with crashes like this, where heroics lead to pilot death but passengers surviving, we are less dark. These pilots knew they were rolling weighted dice and the chances of successful were virtually nil, but they fought all the way down. I don’t know who they were, their experience levels or even their nationalities, but I do know that not many of us could or would survive such an incident, so I’ll put away the dark humor for these two heroes and simply doff my hat at their professionalism and skill in bringing so many people back for their loved ones.
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I think the word "extrodinary" wouldn't go a miss, and sadly they can't tell us just how "extrodinary" they were.
 
jrb said:
Is there such a thing as alleged fog?

There’s either fog or there isn’t fog.
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I don't know what landing aids Grozny airport has, but I would imagine it will be a pretty modern set, so (as we have seen here in the UK the last 3 days) there are delays and some cancellations with fog, even with modern aircraft (and this was no former soviet rust bucket).

My point was though, that as far as I could see, there was no significant fog at Grozny on the 25th (hence my use of the word alleged), and when it crashed the alleged fog was 300 miles away, so fog was not an issue, ever.
 
cleavers said:
My point was though, that as far as I could see, there was no significant fog at Grozny on the 25th (hence my use of the word alleged), and when it crashed the alleged fog was 300 miles away, so fog was not an issue, ever.
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Unless there was no visible identification of the airborne vehicle possible due to that fog, and the recent Ukrainian drone activity had front line air defence personnel on edge…and under orders.

Absolutely NOT providing any excuses to anyone, but not knowing the ID methods available to those holding the trigger, and no visual ID available, it could have been a confluence of events similar to the last time the Russkies shot down a commercial airliner.

I have flown through this airspace since the Russians invaded Ukraine and we couldn’t overfly Russia. In fact, flying over Baku was pretty cool, as it’s a major city on the water in the middle of nowhere…and the stadium looks pretty impressive from 7 miles up! However, we don’t fly to Delhi from Chicago anymore because of things like this, GPS jamming, and the route being so far out of our way we often have to leave people behind to get there.

That said, for the airlines in this area, I’m sure it was a routine flight until the GPS jamming caused them to revert to other navigational aids, possibly stray from their normally proscribed flight path and blunder into an area of Ukrainian drone activity.

Sadly, it really is IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW exactly what happened without knowing information from numerous different sources, much of which we may never see or hear.

That said, this boils down to a commercial aircraft being shot down in close proximity to a war zone, probably due to mistaken identity. Knowing their fate was probably death, two men(?) gave what was left of their lives in an attempt to use their training and skill to save as many people as they could. They succeeded heroically and will not be forgotten for their efforts by those who know that one day it might be them.

Chapeau, my brothers, chapeau.
 
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ChicagoBlue said:
That said, this boils down to a commercial aircraft being shot down in close proximity to a war zone, probably due to mistaken identity. Knowing their fate was probably death, two men(?) gave what was left of their lives in an attempt to use their training and skill to save as many people as they could. They succeeded heroically and will not be forgotten for their efforts by those who know that one day it might be them.

Chapeau, my brothers, chapeau.
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Absolutely.

I hope the (tragic) end result is even less commercial activity into russia from countries who still connect there, very unfortunate for people who have freinds and family either side of the divide.
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Drone activity in the area. GPS jamming occurring to destroy their navigation capability. Mistaken identity by Russians. Air defence missile believed to be destroying Ukrainian drone exploded beside the commercial airplane, peppering the fuselage with shrapnel.

After the explosion, it’s clear the aircraft became very difficult to control, which, with two operating engines (?), suggests hydraulic failure(s) making flight control difficult.

From video footage, when the aircraft is turning there are no spoilers visible. That would suggest loss of hydraulics. The fact that NONE are visible suggests multiple hydraulic systems were lost, as does the fugoidal flight path (rising and falling).

You may have noticed the landing gear was down, which is also a hydraulic function. However, as a safety back-up, the gear can be extended using gravity freefall and locking in place. Sadly, flight control back-ups are generally an alternate hydraulic system, which sometimes shares the load.

I am not an expert on the Embraer jet, but it is standard practice to have different aircraft systems use different hydraulic systems, BUT have CRITICAL SYSTEMS (like flight controls) use more than one hydraulic system, so that one backs up the other in case of failure.

Looking at the flight path, one recalls United 232, in Sioux City, Iowa on July 19, 1989. In that crash, the number 2 engine had an uncontained failure, with fan blade shrapnel piercing the exterior as it exploded.

As misfortune would have it, the DC-10 had one place in the hydraulic system where the THREE different systems came together. That location was in the tail of the aircraft and a piece of shrapnel destroyed it, leading to a total loss of hydraulic fluid, and thus pressure, to move the systems that were controlled by those hydraulics.

That aircraft had to be controlled by the use of the throttles, using differential thrust on the two good engines, to help maneuver the aircraft.

So, while there are significant similarities between the two aircraft flight paths, I don’t know for certain the cause is exactly the same. However, as a pilot for the last 35 years, they look eerily similar, with only the cause of the shrapnel penetrating the fuselage being different.

Because of the location, the parties involved, and the geopolitical realities, we may never know the full truth of what happened, but until I see something to refute my theory, I will continue to believe an air defence missile exploded in close proximity to the aircraft, penetrating the hull and destroying the ability to control the aircraft’s flight path…either due to hydraulic failure, cables being cut or electronic signals being interrupted…most probably the former.

That anyone survived is a miracle, just like with UAL 232. Two people showed heroic skills to almost get them to a runway and died in the act of trying to save the lives entrusted to them.
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One thing I will say is that the radar cross-section and Infrared signature of an airliner are significantly larger than a small drone, and guided missiles tend not to be particularly good at discriminating between targets at that range. They tend to guide towards the largest (highest power) return within its field of regard (RF or IR) and would almost definitely had tracked towards the airliner in this instance. I personally doubt there was a drone anywhere near. It's more than likely the missile system operator just picked the wrong target.

Usually, missiles have a proximity fusing mechanism and are designed to detonate within a certain distance from its target. It's very lucky that the aircraft didn't break up on detonation of the missile's warhead.
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
One thing I will say is that the radar cross-section and Infrared signature of an airliner are significantly larger than a small drone, and guided missiles tend not to be particularly good at discriminating between targets at that range. They tend to guide towards the largest (highest power) return within its field of regard (RF or IR) and would almost definitely had tracked towards the airliner in this instance. I personally doubt there was a drone anywhere near. It's more than likely the missile system operator just picked the wrong target.

Usually, missiles have a proximity fusing mechanism and are designed to detonate within a certain distance from its target. It's very lucky that the aircraft didn't break up on detonation of the missile's warhead.
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Have you seen some of the drones?

The last one I saw looked like a Cessna 172…not a little 4 rotor Go Pro device!
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Have you seen some of the drones?

The last one I saw looked like a Cessna 172…not a little 4 rotor Go Pro device!
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They are pretty big but still don't have the radar signature of an airliner. As a rough estimate a B737 (a similar size to the E190) is around 10m squared (depending on the aspect) and for reference an A380 is around 100m squared. Something like a Cessna 172 might be between around 4m squared at most.

Also, RCS isn't directly proportional to radar return signal power, so even a small difference in RCS can have a significant impact on the return signal at the receiver. A drone of that size in anywhere within the same radar resolution cell as the E190 would just be lost in the noise.
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
They are pretty big but still don't have the radar signature of an airliner. As a rough estimate a B737 (a similar size to the E190) is around 10m squared (depending on the aspect) and for reference an A380 is around 100m squared. Something like a Cessna 172 might be between around 4m squared at most.

Also, RCS isn't directly proportional to radar return signal power, so even a small difference in RCS can have a significant impact on the return signal at the receiver. A drone of that size in anywhere within the same radar resolution cell as the E190 would just be lost in the noise.
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You sound like a smart guy who isn’t in a war zone and just missed the last drone that blew up part of town!

I’m guessing, but I doubt there was much in the way of critical analysis involved in the shoot down.
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
They are pretty big but still don't have the radar signature of an airliner. As a rough estimate a B737 (a similar size to the E190) is around 10m squared (depending on the aspect) and for reference an A380 is around 100m squared. Something like a Cessna 172 might be between around 4m squared at most.

Also, RCS isn't directly proportional to radar return signal power, so even a small difference in RCS can have a significant impact on the return signal at the receiver. A drone of that size in anywhere within the same radar resolution cell as the E190 would just be lost in the noise.
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Sadly is a war/conflict who is going to take a chance?

There is a reason western airlines won't fly in this region and this is it.
 
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