City Raider said:
essex 7-1
what else needs to happen today for us to qualify? can't see hampshire losing to derbyshire so would we be relying on 2 or 3 other teams losing to get best runner up?
the groups are like this:
A
1) Notts 16 +0.471.
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2) Northants 15 + 0.102
Notts play Kent on Sky, Northants play Warwickshire. If Notts win they top the group on 18, if Northants win they go to 17. A tie or NR for Notts takes them to 17 where they will go through provided Northants don't thrash Warks. At best 2nd place there will be 17 points.
B
1) Hants 16 +0.714
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2) Lancs 15 +0.161
3) Essex 14 +0.895.
Hants go through with a win against Derbyshire, a tie or NR will also likely take them through as Lancs are unlikely to catch the NRR. Lancs play Essex in a decider for at least 2nd place, as if Hants lose and either Lancs or Essex win they will finish top. If Lancs win and Hants get a result then Lancs will end up on 17 in 2nd, and will rely on Northants not thrashing Warks to be ahead of them as best runner-up.
C
1) Somerset 15 +1.088 15.
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2) Glamorgan 15 +0.613 15
3) Gloucs 15 +0.213 15.
The tightest group sees Somerset play Gloucs on the final day, a win for Somerset and they will almost certainly go through, and Gloucs will go out. A Gloucs win will eliminate Somerset but Glamorgan could either finish top with a thumping win over Yorkshire despite a Somerset win, or if Somerset tie or lose, whilst finishing 2nd if Somerset also win comfortably.
So essentially you're needing to beat Essex quite well and relying either on Glamorgan or Somerset losing and the latter by a tight margin and Northants not thumping Warwickshire. It will likely come down to NRR.
Hants are 39-1 off 6.5 at Derby, Somerset are 62-0 off 7.5 at Gloucs, Kent are 28-1 off 7.4 at home to Notts, Essex 31-1 off 6.5 at Lancs, Northants 63-0 off 8 at Warks and Yorks 22-2 off 8 against Glamorgan.