Le Tour De France 2015

aguero93:20 said:
I'm not being critical, I've a lot of respect for professional cyclists. I can't even find my bike when I'm on drugs, have to drive instead.
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Its a bit of cliche thats all mate, wasnt having a pop at you or bb4tm, other sports have as big if not bigger issues than cycling, its just that cycling's issues have all been laid out for everyone to see. Someone will get done for doping during this tour, that is because every walk of life has cheaters in it and it will be highlighted far more than other sports do with their positives.
 
Paul Lake's Left Knee said:
Its a bit of cliche thats all mate, wasnt having a pop at you or bb4tm, other sports have as big if not bigger issues than cycling, its just that cycling's issues have all been laid out for everyone to see. Someone will get done for doping during this tour, that is because every walk of life has cheaters in it and it will be highlighted far more than other sports do with their positives.
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Yep, you could just as easily go on the Wimbledon thread, the US Open golf one, the boxing discussion, even the cricket thread, and write 'drugs' and it'd be as, if not even more, applicable than it is to cycling. The Farrah/Salazaar case is a good illustration, abuse of asthma, thyroid and allergy meds has been openly and comprehensively discussed amongst cycling fans, and solutions are being explored, yet amongst the wider public there's still either total nativity or denial. Cycling isn't perfect by any means and this 'TUE' problem really needs to be looked at, but the same stuff is going on right across nearly every sport out there, and I think there'd be shock waves if other federations became even half as proactive or diligent in their addressing of the issues.

Anyway, on with the tour - anyone but Nibali please!
 
The best annual sporting event (unless we get to a cup final) Good parcours this year and throw in the TTT and it will be a belter. I will be in Dieppe to see them come through, that stage across the cliff tops could shatter the peleton if the wind gets up.

Vive Le Tour
 
I'm looking forward to this.

For the GC, here is how I rate the contenders:
Froome - Best team tactically and possibly skill - Froome has some weaknesses but his ability to TT as well as climb has to make him either option 1 or 1A
Quintana - Movistar hasn't been good this year so that hurts - Best climber in the world right now but he is not good at TT. This year's TDF does not have a lot of ITT miles so this could be his year.
Contador - Great team - Contador is the best grand tour rider of his generation but he ran out of gas towards the end of the Giro and going back to back is very hard
Nibali - Very good team - Nibali is the defending champion but has looked bad this year. However that isn't unusual for him. He could be on the podium or not in the top 20.
Van Garderen - BMC needs to get TeJay a super domestique. As is, he ends up having to fight solo for way too long. He's a step behind Froome in most ways that really matter for the GC
Pinot - Finished on the podium last year - I just don't see him doing it again. Though the lack of long ITTs favors him.
Bardet and Peraud - AG2R had an amazing 2014 TDF and these two were phenominal. I would expect one of these guys (I'm leaning towards Bardet) to finish in the top 10.
Talansky - I love the kid and his grit. With Ryder Hesjedal helping him, it is possible that he could make some noise. The problem is that Cannondale-Garmin always rides at the back of the peleton to conserve energy which means they get caught up in all of the wrecks. I would love to see them ride a bit further up in the group to avoid some of that stuff.

Sprinters - If you would have asked me two months ago, I would have said that I didn't think Sagan would do anything and that Kristoff was my favorite for the Green jersey. I also thought that Kittel would continue his dominance. However Kittel has been very ill and isn't going to race. Kristoff peaked for the classics and hasn't looked the same since. Sagan has really turned it up. I don't think he'll win many stages, but he looks to be back to being the guy that can win the Green. His biggest competitor for the Green jersey is Degenkolb. With Kittel not being at the tour, the whole team is lined up to support him. He is a lot like Sagan in that he isn't a classic sprinter. He can climb and he can ride the cobbles. I am betting that Degenkolb with the Giant team gives him a great shot at usurping Sagan who will be on his own as the rest of the TS team is there for Contador.

TTT - The best time trial team is Orica GreenEdge. They have edged out everybody pretty much all year at that discipline. Sky and Ettix are right there with them, but somehow they always seem to come through by a thin margin.

This year looks to be one of the hardest tours in memory. With multiple cobble stages and a ton of mountain stages it looks like it is going to be an amazing tour. If you like sprinters, this isn't your year. Personally, I find sprinting stages to be mostly boring with about 2 minutes of action. Mountain stages are always fantastic.
 
I wouldn't over estimate the ITT, as it's only 13.8k, flat as a pancake and not overly technical. Perfect for Dumoulin. Possibly Cancellara. I expect Dowsett to do well too. It would be good to see him win a stage as he comes across as genuinely nice bloke.

I have to admit, the only thing I don't like about the parcour of the whole TDF route is the lack of a significant ITT. I like to see the best all-rounder win. This years route could see a relative poor TTer win because he is a bit of a mountain goat and survived the classic-type stages. It's as if it was created to boost Bardet's chances...
 
Pokes28 said:
I'm looking forward to this.

For the GC, here is how I rate the contenders:
Froome - Best team tactically and possibly skill - Froome has some weaknesses but his ability to TT as well as climb has to make him either option 1 or 1A
Quintana - Movistar hasn't been good this year so that hurts - Best climber in the world right now but he is not good at TT. This year's TDF does not have a lot of ITT miles so this could be his year.
Contador - Great team - Contador is the best grand tour rider of his generation but he ran out of gas towards the end of the Giro and going back to back is very hard
Nibali - Very good team - Nibali is the defending champion but has looked bad this year. However that isn't unusual for him. He could be on the podium or not in the top 20.
Van Garderen - BMC needs to get TeJay a super domestique. As is, he ends up having to fight solo for way too long. He's a step behind Froome in most ways that really matter for the GC
Pinot - Finished on the podium last year - I just don't see him doing it again. Though the lack of long ITTs favors him.
Bardet and Peraud - AG2R had an amazing 2014 TDF and these two were phenominal. I would expect one of these guys (I'm leaning towards Bardet) to finish in the top 10.
Talansky - I love the kid and his grit. With Ryder Hesjedal helping him, it is possible that he could make some noise. The problem is that Cannondale-Garmin always rides at the back of the peleton to conserve energy which means they get caught up in all of the wrecks. I would love to see them ride a bit further up in the group to avoid some of that stuff.

Sprinters - If you would have asked me two months ago, I would have said that I didn't think Sagan would do anything and that Kristoff was my favorite for the Green jersey. I also thought that Kittel would continue his dominance. However Kittel has been very ill and isn't going to race. Kristoff peaked for the classics and hasn't looked the same since. Sagan has really turned it up. I don't think he'll win many stages, but he looks to be back to being the guy that can win the Green. His biggest competitor for the Green jersey is Degenkolb. With Kittel not being at the tour, the whole team is lined up to support him. He is a lot like Sagan in that he isn't a classic sprinter. He can climb and he can ride the cobbles. I am betting that Degenkolb with the Giant team gives him a great shot at usurping Sagan who will be on his own as the rest of the TS team is there for Contador.

TTT - The best time trial team is Orica GreenEdge. They have edged out everybody pretty much all year at that discipline. Sky and Ettix are right there with them, but somehow they always seem to come through by a thin margin.

This year looks to be one of the hardest tours in memory. With multiple cobble stages and a ton of mountain stages it looks like it is going to be an amazing tour. If you like sprinters, this isn't your year. Personally, I find sprinting stages to be mostly boring with about 2 minutes of action. Mountain stages are always fantastic.
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Good to see you're bringing the french into it. Thems coming in strong.
 
Pokes28 said:
I'm looking forward to this.

For the GC, here is how I rate the contenders:
Froome - Best team tactically and possibly skill - Froome has some weaknesses but his ability to TT as well as climb has to make him either option 1 or 1A
Quintana - Movistar hasn't been good this year so that hurts - Best climber in the world right now but he is not good at TT. This year's TDF does not have a lot of ITT miles so this could be his year.
Contador - Great team - Contador is the best grand tour rider of his generation but he ran out of gas towards the end of the Giro and going back to back is very hard
Nibali - Very good team - Nibali is the defending champion but has looked bad this year. However that isn't unusual for him. He could be on the podium or not in the top 20.
Van Garderen - BMC needs to get TeJay a super domestique. As is, he ends up having to fight solo for way too long. He's a step behind Froome in most ways that really matter for the GC
Pinot - Finished on the podium last year - I just don't see him doing it again. Though the lack of long ITTs favors him.
Bardet and Peraud - AG2R had an amazing 2014 TDF and these two were phenominal. I would expect one of these guys (I'm leaning towards Bardet) to finish in the top 10.
Talansky - I love the kid and his grit. With Ryder Hesjedal helping him, it is possible that he could make some noise. The problem is that Cannondale-Garmin always rides at the back of the peleton to conserve energy which means they get caught up in all of the wrecks. I would love to see them ride a bit further up in the group to avoid some of that stuff.
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Interesting analysis Pokes. Can't say I agree on all of it personally though. I certainly wouldn't call Sky the best team tactically. They've great strength in depth with their selections, and the quality of their riders has allowed them their success, but their approach is fairly one dimensional in my eyes and they often haven't adapted particularly well when something or someone causes a deviation from that script. I think there are other teams in the race who are more inventive and astute, and potentially have more balanced squad's with the first week in mind.

I think it's a bit premature to declare Quintana the best climber in the world too. Contador for example beat Quintana in every mountain stage they contended last year (T-A and Vuelta) and beat him recently at the Routa De Sud, all be it they crested the climb together. Froome's record against Nairo is much more even, it's hard to split them, but on any given single stage in top form I'd back Froome. There's no doubt Nairo is a great talent, but I wouldn't say he's clearly better than others just yet, I think they fact that he never appears to be suffering, even though he is, makes people believe he finds it more effortless than he does. The next three weeks will reveal more of course.

As for Pinot, you're right it'll be very hard for him to podium, but I think he's climbing better this year than last, and if he get through the first week (and avoids his now customary minute or two lost in the echelons) then I think he could often be one of the very last one's left standing when it kicks off with the big four, and may even mix it up with them a bit.

Exciting stuff ahead anyway :)
 
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