One conclusion I drew by reading between the lines of what Laporta offered up today, despite Brunati's comments recently, was that it is clear Leo already has one foot out the door. This coincides with the conclusion I drew with the timing of Messi's recent outburst & Pep's extension
Laporta saying he hopes there is still time to convince him speaks to both the election timing and the damage already done, preparing socis to the likelihood that Leo may indeed still leave but that he is best positioned to convince him. If he had the Messi card in his hand, he would play it
My educated guess, currently Leo is 60/40 to come to City but as Brunati said on Sunday things can change