Makerfield By - Election. Burnham v Reform

[Ste68]

Think enough Greens will back Burnham

The greens dont hold enough votes to sway it. Think this maybe who persuades the 35000 who did not bother to vote last time to come out and pick a party. Who does that best wins. Those who voted reform in the locals I think will stick which presents a formidable challenge for Burnham. The Green vote is not swelled by any appeal to ethnic minorities in Makerfield as it’s very much white working class. Very much a labour seat historically , straight shootout Labour v Reform. Huge gamble for labour but guess Burnham has little to lose but lot to gain personally.

 

[Vic]

But Burnham does have to campaign on the achievements of Labour under Starmer (e.g. the laws passed on workers' rights, renters' rights, getting migration down...)

 

[mackenzie]

But Burnham does have to campaign on the achievements of Labour under Starmer (e.g. the laws passed on workers' rights, renters' rights, getting migration down...)

Does he have to stand down as Mayor before he runs in a by election?

 

[The blue phantom]

I was talking to my mate who is an odds compiler for Corals. He does the Golf and cricket but still has an idea of prices on a wide range of other markets. Seems to think if it was any other person running for labour it would be priced up around 13/8 - 2/1. So around a 37% chance.

Also his take is that the thought of Makerfield having a Prime Minister representing them is a huge plus with the constituents. Never been anything but a Labour seat. Generally it is a left wing area regardless of the local election results.

I still think everything is up in the air and hard to predict.

 

[Blackley_Blue]

Does he have to stand down as Mayor before he runs in a by election?

Yes

 

[Metal Biker]

Results of the 2024 Makerfield election:

Labour: 18,202
Reform: 12,803
Conservative: 4,379
Lib Dem: 2,735
Greens: 1,776
Eng Dem: 368

Turnout: 52.5%

To save people checking.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Burnham is definitely taking a gamble fighting this particular seat. Think the identity of the Reform candidate will be a factor. Wonder if they’ll parachute that **** Jake Berry in.

 

[stonerblue]

Good man Burnham, take the fuckers on.

 

[Ho Chi Man City]

I was talking to my mate who is an odds compiler for Corals. He does the Golf and cricket but still has an idea of prices on a wide range of other markets. Seems to think if it was any other person running for labour it would be priced up around 13/8 - 2/1. So around a 37% chance.

Also his take is that the thought of Makerfield having a Prime Minister representing them is a huge plus with the constituents. Never been anything but a Labour seat. Generally it is a left wing area regardless of the local election results.

I still think everything is up in the air and hard to predict.

4/6 Labour and 5/4 Reform at the moment, think it will probably end up around 1/2 and 13/8, the others are out with the washing.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

4/6 Labour and 5/4 Reform at the moment, think it will probably end up around 1/2 and 13/8, the others are out with the washing.

It’s definitely a two horse race, this one.

 

[Ste68]

4/6 Labour and 5/4 Reform at the moment, think it will probably end up around 1/2 and 13/8, the others are out with the washing.

Still think this comes down to who can attract the missing voters , if anyone can. An extra 10 percent turnout that largely goes one way wins it . If Makerfield is one of those areas that have felt largely ignored may be a hard sell for labour although may have the meet your future PM appeal. .

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Reform are going to chuck the kitchen sink at this seat. They would be mad not to.

 

[johnny crossan]

 

[Ho Chi Man City]

Still think this comes down to who can attract the missing voters , if anyone can. An extra 10 percent turnout that largely goes one way wins it . If Makerfield is one of those areas that have felt largely ignored may be a hard sell for labour although may have the meet your future PM appeal. .

Fair enough but the leader (or in this case) a potential leader of a party would attract a higher % of the vote, kind of lifts the profile of an area.

However, I wouldn’t follow that criteria as the MP who represents the constituency where I live is Angela Rayner. During last weeks elections only the house she owns had “Vote Labour” posters on it, non of her neighbours showed any support which tells a story in an area that’s been Labour for as long as I remember.

 

[BlueMoonday]

I don’t think any Cabinet ministers do. But they do have staff/an office to deal with constituent issues

Likewise with the Speaker. They delegate constituency work to staffers

 

[mackenzie]

Yes

I've just googled it (probably should have done that before lol), and it says he doesn't. I'm seeing that he would only need to resign as mayor if actually elected as an MP.
No idea if true, but I suppose the optics would be pretty bad if he didnt (regardless of the outcome of the by election).

 

[hilts]

You just get more staff to do the casework for which you sign the letters.

People in Clacton voted for Farage knowing he wouldn't be there much. (Oh please don't tell me they believed he'd live in the constituency.)

I'm sure I went to Butlins in Clacton as a kid, like the French Riviera it was:-)

 

[dadnlad]

the postal votes will out weigh walk-ins

 

[UnderControl]

Just read the by election could be as soon as middle of June

 

[hilts]

Not often you have a Labour prime minister desperate for a reform win and preferably a large one.