Saddleworth2
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 27 Jan 2014
- Messages
- 21,704
its a bit like buying an old run down house. You might get it for £500k but how much for the refurb?According to the Markham Multivariate Model, supposedly the most accurate based on actual sale values, we're currently worth about £2.5bn. Putting Liverpool's 2021 figures into that model values them around £1bn but I'd say that the 2022 figures would probably value them closer to £1.5bn.
Any buyer, unless they weren't worried about the bottom line or cashflow, would be looking at the potential risk of a loss of cash from failing to get top four, plus the cost of having to refresh the squad. They're probably OK defensively but lack a midfield who could play the way someone like Pep would want them to. A lot depends on Salah up front but he's 31 next birthday and you can't see them easily replacing him, if someone like Bayern or Real Madrid came calling. Diaz looks decent but can he do it season after season? The jury's still very much out on Nunez, and it seems as though they don't really know how to use him.
And then there's the question about Klopp's future. His style is possibly getting a bit dated as more teams are playing the ball around and retaining possession these days and they aren't as good at that. Could they find another manager to replace him who'd be an advocate of gegenpressing? If they go for someone who favours a possession style then you have to wonder which of their players would be able to adapt to that. They'd need pretty well a whole new midfield.
The 2021 FY was a funny one, with no matchday revenue and they had to borrow £70m to fund transfers, which they'd normally have earned from matchday revenue. We need to see the 2022 accounts to get a better picture but, like united, they could be at a tipping point if they miss out on top four.
In Liverpools case the refurb costs may well exceed £700M or 50% of the clubs value on top. If you assess that with a potential loss of Klopp and top 4 position, the picture becomes much less attractive. It will be interesting who steps forward and wether this will be a sale of the club or simply some new investors as FSG looks to lessen its exposure and take some profit.