Nadine Dorries

[MillionMilesAway]

An MP doesn’t stand because her Boss was sacked?

still waiting for Johnson's exit honours list - rumour was she was getting a peerage, but that kicks her out of the Commons.
Maybe she's got news of the timeline on that

 

[Gabriel]

I am fairly certain that there is going to be a civil war in the Self-Servative PARTY within the next 5 years, probably just after the next general election, which I expect to see a Labour majority of over 100 seats.

Really? Even with the Conservatives imploding, from its current position, a Labour majority of 100 would be an astonishing turnaround. It would either need to convert many SNP voters or convert many dyed-blue Conservatives in the Shires, maybe both, yet the sweetener for one group is vinegar to the other.

 

[Lowtower]

Ahh Nads, Scouse Tory, porn writing, channel 4 fighting, downstreaming, tennis pitches , Johnsons fan-girl.
Its not gonna be the same without your Lambrini riddled late night tweets.
All the best.... fuck off.

 

[domalino]

Really? Even with the Conservatives imploding, from its current position, a Labour majority of 100 would be an astonishing turnaround. It would either need to convert many SNP voters or convert many dyed-blue Conservatives in the Shires, maybe both, yet the sweetener for one group is vinegar to the other.

The current polling predicts a majority of 250.

 

[Gabriel]

The current polling predicts a majority of 300.

True, but do you believe it will be 300?

 

[domalino]

True, but do you believe it will be 300?

It's actually slightly lower now, 250, I put the full results in the post above.

Even the lowest estimates for Labour and highest for conservative sees a LAB landslide so I don't really mind.

 

[Gabriel]

Labour’s highest number of seats was 418 in 1997 and it’s coming now from its lowest position since 1935. Even at their lowest ebb since 1918, the Conservatives still managed 165 seats in 1997. I reckon the polls will narrow further in the coming years, though Labour will still be the largest party.

More concerned about the level of turnout. Disaffection amongst the electorate with politicians and politics looks to be continuing, and that’s not healthy for the country.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Labour’s highest number of seats was 418 in 1997 and it’s coming now from its lowest position since 1935. Even at their lowest ebb since 1918, the Conservatives still managed 165 seats in 1997. I reckon the polls will narrow further in the coming years, though Labour will still be the largest party.

More concerned about the level of turnout. Disaffection amongst the electorate with politicians and politics looks to be continuing, and that’s not healthy for the country.

They are fucked and they know it - Sunak is allowed to stay in place as a fall guy for whats to come - a Johnson return would destroy his claim to fame as an election winner

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

I am fairly certain that there is going to be a civil war in the Self-Servative PARTY within the next 5 years, probably just after the next general election, which I expect to see a Labour majority of over 100 seats.
I expect them to try and put on a united front in front of the media between now and then, but the ultra right wing ERG are pushing them ever further and away from any chance of electability and their attack on the workers isn't having the effectthey would wish, indeed, the consensus of the people is that the unions are correct to be fighting for just and fair pay, safe staffing, and defending hard won rights.

(Self servative party) I must remember that quote and Labour will win the next election we have had enough of this self serving government there was a hint of “Nadine going into the jungle” Boris as well I hope

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

They are fucked and they know it - Sunak is allowed to stay in place as a fall guy for whats to come - a Johnson return would destroy his claim to fame as an election winner

There can be no long term plan as they are all facing a very tough battle to retain individual seats. Boris Johnson has similar chances of survival as many others. Not good.

It's fairly easy to predict they lose and Sunak will go. But the tory party is very top down. Those that survive the cull will have the power and who can say who that will be. Many of the 'smart' ones are dropping out now to get a headstart finding a job and avoiding the embarrassment of the doomed campaign.

 

[kaz7]

Silly cow has a show on talk tv, they are full of cunts that place

 

[BayernMan]

 

[MillionMilesAway]

There can be no long term plan as they are all facing a very tough battle to retain individual seats. Boris Johnson has similar chances of survival as many others. Not good.

It's fairly easy to predict they lose and Sunak will go. But the tory party is very top down. Those that survive the cull will have the power and who can say who that will be. Many of the 'smart' ones are dropping out now to get a headstart finding a job and avoiding the embarrassment of the doomed campaign.

I would be staggered if Johnson defends Uxbridge. He's a coward when it comes to actual work, and will clear off to somewhere else. He's been reported to be looking at houses in his old constituency Henley, the Prosecco one has just announced that her safe seat is free...

 

[Marlo]

If you look at their polling numbers with under 40s they are going to need to reinvent themselves to prevent complete wipeout in the decades to come. Even at the last election which was a high watermark for them they secured less than 20% in that demographic. It’s not beyond imagination to think they could get <10% in the next election. And voters are no longer leaning more to the right as they age because they are not accruing wealth like previous generations.

They’ve basically shot themselves in the foot massively. If they do let the lunatics take over the asylum it’s easy to see them devolving into UKIP 2.0 and the Lib Dems taking their place as the party of conservative fiscal policy with a liberal social agenda.

There’s no doubt in my mind the Conservative Party in the form of which it exists today will be extinct in 20 years. The question is whether it will be on their own terms or because they’ve painted themselves into a corner and lack the talent or smarts to get themselves out of it.

I think that is interesting but unfortunately unlikely. The hangover from Johnson and Cameron will last a long time but I can see them like the Fianna Fail party in Ireland who were the dominant political party for decades but following the crash in 2010 they are critically diminished, but still a big influence, but never what their once were.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

I think that is interesting but unfortunately unlikely. The hangover from Johnson and Cameron will last a long time but I coyote see them like the Fianna Fail party in Ireland who were the dominant political party for decades but following the crash in 2010 they are critically diminished, but still a big influence, but never what their once were.

You may be right, I can see enough people propping them up to allow them to limp on. Though interestingly the latest poll from PeoplePolling came out today (almost as if I planned it) and the data tables sat behind the results suggest it may be even worse than I had indicated above.



Without any modelling done for “Don’t Knows” it is saying the number of under 50s indicating they are going to vote Conservative is just 6%. Incorporating Don’t Knows/Non-Voters/Prefer Not to Say it goes up to 10%. That suggests they might be relying on undecideds just to get to the catastrophic numbers I'd posted previously.

Yes, disclaimer, it is only one poll (though most of them seem to be telling a similar story). But if results actually end up like this then we’re getting close to extinction-level event territory. They are drowning themselves in their own folly.

 

[Rascal]

More concerned about the level of turnout. Disaffection amongst the electorate with politicians and politics looks to be continuing, and that’s not healthy for the country.

I think you are right to be concerned as many on the left of the Labour Party will either waste their vote, vote Green or not even bother.

I have always voted Labour, with Starmer as leader I can not. Of course I would rather Labour than Tories every time, but voting least worst is not my idea of democracy.

 

[bluethrunthru]

You may be right, I can see enough people propping them up to allow them to limp on. Though interestingly the latest poll from PeoplePolling came out today (almost as if I planned it) and the data tables sat behind the results suggest it may be even worse than I had indicated above.

View attachment 68751

Without any modelling done for “Don’t Knows” it is saying the number of under 50s indicating they are going to vote Conservative is just 6%. Incorporating Don’t Knows/Non-Voters/Prefer Not to Say it goes up to 10%. That suggests they might be relying on undecideds just to get to the catastrophic numbers I'd posted previously.

Yes, disclaimer, it is only one poll (though most of them seem to be telling a similar story). But if results actually end up like this then we’re getting close to extinction-level event territory. They are drowning themselves in their own folly.

In reality it will not be as bad as the polls and the by-elections as in there are too many variables twixt now and then but they are going to lose massively - its now just a damage limitation exercise - the rabid gammon will be fuming when boats are flooding across in the summer again for example - but to go from an 80 seat majority to an 80 seat deficit which is the best they can hope for would be a pyrrhic victory they could accept and move on from. I expect it to be much worse than that though

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I think you are right to be concerned as many on the left of the Labour Party will either waste their vote, vote Green or not even bother.

I have always voted Labour, with Starmer as leader I can not. Of course I would rather Labour than Tories every time, but voting least worst is not my idea of democracy.

People say this all the time but once a GE kicks of most people pick a side and default back to chosing one main party over another.

That and the hard left of the Labour Party is in reality a pretty insignificant number in terms of a GE.

 

[Rascal]

People say this all the time but once a GE kicks of most people pick a side and default back to chosing one main party over another.

That and the hard left of the Labour Party is in reality a pretty insignificant number in terms of a GE.

Maybe it is insignificant, we will see.

 

[Gabriel]

I think you are right to be concerned as many on the left of the Labour Party will either waste their vote, vote Green or not even bother.

I have always voted Labour, with Starmer as leader I can not. Of course I would rather Labour than Tories every time, but voting least worst is not my idea of democracy.

Understandable but my point was more general. At the last GE, some 80.3% of the voters in East Dumbartonshire voted, the highest turnout in the country, yet only 49.3% of voters in Kingston upon Hull East voted, the lowest turnout in the country. A huge difference. The overall figure was 67.3% which was slightly up on 2017 but down on 1997. after all that has happened, one might expect a large turnout in 2024-5, but if people are not inspired enough by what Labour offers or not motivated to defend the Conservatives, then we may even see a reduced turnout. I just sense that some people have convinced themselves that their fortunes won’t change no matter which way they vote, so they have disengaged and will simply shun the booths. Quite a depressing prospect.