New Financial Crisis

FTSE back up to 7545 - I went in heavily earlier this week at 7309 - still believe the FTSE will be 8100 around Christmas time. Potential 10% uplift.
 
mindmyp's_n_q's said:

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com www.reddit.com
Click to expand...
Everyone in finance new CS was in trouble. My point is you can't predict the outcome. The way the Swiss authorities dealt with this is bonkers.

Interestingly the Swiss are very far behind other countries on recovery and resolution planning. In the UK we follow the EU rules so much more work has gone in to prepare for these situations.
 
Gaudion M said:
Everyone in finance new CS was in trouble. My point is you can't predict the outcome. The way the Swiss authorities dealt with this is bonkers.

Interestingly the Swiss are very far behind other countries on recovery and resolution planning. In the UK we follow the EU rules so much more work has gone in to prepare for these situations.
Click to expand...
Well I work for CS in Zurich Hq and we didn't know we were in trouble until last week. We had a good balance book, plenty of good assets..No toxic assets. Then these rumours on social media started and then customer confidence was lost. The customers believed these rumours and started to withdraw all their funds causing a run on the bank. No bank can operate when every Tom, Dick and Harry is taking out all their cash. The Bank of England and ECB threatened the SNB with excluding them from the world banking system so the only way they could get confidence back is for UBS to take CS over. Everyone was shocked,especially at the low price, but the merger still has to be ratified, which will probably take 6 to 8 months, and until then the banks are still two separate entities
 
yankblue said:
The US is the most socialist country in the world when it comes to bailing out the banks. It's when those pesky workers start wanting healthcare and a decent wage we go full Capitalism
Click to expand...
The democrats are there to take care of the small guy but unfortunately evil republicans do not let them and force them to give out billions to the richest.
 
Gaz in Zurich said:
Well I work for CS in Zurich Hq and we didn't know we were in trouble until last week. We had a good balance book, plenty of good assets..No toxic assets. Then these rumours on social media started and then customer confidence was lost. The customers believed these rumours and started to withdraw all their funds causing a run on the bank. No bank can operate when every Tom, Dick and Harry is taking out all their cash. The Bank of England and ECB threatened the SNB with excluding them from the world banking system so the only way they could get confidence back is for UBS to take CS over. Everyone was shocked,especially at the low price, but the merger still has to be ratified, which will probably take 6 to 8 months, and until then the banks are still two separate entities
Click to expand...
I'd agree that I don't think you needed rescuing. Maybe you were getting to that point but it looked a bit premature to me.

In theory, banks with resolution plans should just go bust and unwind themselves. The Swiss system was way behind and not ready for it. SVB was too small to have a resolution plan. It will be interesting to see if a central bank does get faced with a bank on the edge and they just let them go under.
 
The First Republic Bank in the USA has finally collapsed. It has been taken over by JP Morgan. Losses estimated at USD 26bn.
On another front of interest to Bluemooners, Lebanon is in desperate trouble with an inflation rate of more than 250%. The IMF is attempting a rescue, which comes with hard conditions.
A brief history shows its relevance to UAE and thus Manchester City. Very briefly, the PLO having been expelled from Jordan tried to set up a state within a state in Lebanon in 1971.
Since then a country which had been highly prosperous from banking (The Switzerland of the M.E.) and tourism (The playground of the Wealthy) has been riven with wars both civil and with Israel and has finally descended into poverty and chaos.
This is similar to the Houthi trying to set up a state within a state in Yemen and explains the reaction of Saudi, the UAE and their allies, UK, USA and France. They have no wish for Lebanon‘s fate to befall the gulf.
I expect Ratboy to explain all this in his next foreign affairs lecture. (“The government will be after City for UAE’s actions in Yemen.”) Right Gary.
 
Last edited:
China isn’t looking good, at all, a financial crisis in slow motion. The post covid lock down bounce never happened, little government support during the lockdowns so didn’t pent up demand like elsewhere, debt fuelled growth has petered out, housing sector in the absolute toilet, youth unemployment at 30%, the people’s party devoid of any solutions, although they’ve now stopped publishing unfavourable numbers like youth unemployment, so they aren’t entirely asleep at the wheel.

If the saying was when the US sneezed the rest of the world caught a cold was true then when China sneezes I’ll not be surprised if the west catches the flu.
 
It’s not so long ago that experts were saying go east for growth. The economies of China, Russia, Pakistan are all basket cases. The far east will catch a cold from that. Japan and S. Korea have some serious structural problems with demographic imbalance. Meanwhile USA doing pretty good.
Go West, young man.
 
KS55 said:
It’s not so long ago that experts were saying go east for growth. The economies of China, Russia, Pakistan are all basket cases. The far east will catch a cold from that. Japan and S. Korea have some serious structural problems with demographic imbalance. Meanwhile USA doing pretty good.
Go West, young man.
Click to expand...
34 years of impressive growth in China before COVID.
 
Corky said:
34 years of impressive growth in China before COVID.
Click to expand...
Poor to middle income is always the easy bit though, whereas middle-income to high-income is much harder, especially when you've got a government that insists on an insane level of centralized control.

It's also fairly well-established that dictatorships exaggerate economic growth, and have little in the way of independent checks and balances, so while obviously China was growing at an impressive rate, it was certainly never quite as impressive as the official figures claimed.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top