New Financial Crisis

[brazilians hurt]

If I was, I wouldn't have been saying it without a whole load of caveats. I'm just some bloke down the virtual pub, so follow at your own risk.

But over a long enough period, the market has never not gone up in the past. Think it was Morgan Housel who said if you only checked your investments every 12 years, it would never have been down (assuming investing in global passive funds and not a single share/crypto etc).

I’ve loaded in this year using the 3 year count back to top up to maximum contribution. Sadly currently my growth is the the tax relief. Fingers crossed for lift off

 

[Dukefan9]

I work customer service at a big brokerage firm in the States. It’s been a….fun couple of days

 

[Gaz in Zurich]

Credit Suisse about to go belly up?

I work for CS in their Zurich HQ..They have trillions in assets but all this bad publicity is like a self fulfilling prophecy..Everyone is being spooked and pulling out their money, all at once this causes liquidity issues which then causes it to have to stop withdrawals, which then causes panic like a snowball effect, as they cannot sell assets (like real estate or another part of the company) as quick as Dave, George and Mildred want their nest eggs. The bank is too big to fail so won't be allowed too, but all these whispers are causing the problems.

 

[metalblue]

I work for CS in their Zurich HQ..They have trillions in assets but all this bad publicity is like a self fulfilling prophecy..Everyone is being spooked and pulling out their money, all at once this causes liquidity issues which then causes it to have to stop withdrawals, which then causes panic like a snowball effect, as they cannot sell assets (like real estate or another part of the company) as quick as Dave, George and Mildred want their nest eggs. The bank is too big to fail so won't be allowed too, but all these whispers are causing the problems.

The problem of social media

 

[Gaz in Zurich]

The problem of social media

Probably started by competitors or hedge funds that want to get the CS assets for a knock down price

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

I work for CS in their Zurich HQ..They have trillions in assets but all this bad publicity is like a self fulfilling prophecy..Everyone is being spooked and pulling out their money, all at once this causes liquidity issues which then causes it to have to stop withdrawals, which then causes panic like a snowball effect, as they cannot sell assets (like real estate or another part of the company) as quick as Dave, George and Mildred want their nest eggs. The bank is too big to fail so won't be allowed too, but all these whispers are causing the problems.

That's the problem. You get conspiracy nuts who see fractional reserve banking as some some sort of Judaeo-Masonic plot to take over the world and reduce us to serfs but under normal circumstances day-to-day bank withdrawals don't matter and, without it, investment would be massively smaller if banks had to hold most or all of their deposits as easily liquid assets.

But if a few people get the idea that a bank is in trouble, they induce a run on that bank.

I saw something that pointed out that even if SVB sold its assets at a significant discount, they'd still have billions of dollars left over once they settled customer liabilities. They aren't seemingly bankrupt or otherwise insolvent; it's simply a case of not being able to liquidate their assets quickly enough.

 

[Gaz in Zurich]

That's the problem. You get conspiracy nuts who see fractional reserve banking as some some sort of Judaeo-Masonic plot to take over the world and reduce us to serfs but under normal circumstances day-to-day bank withdrawals don't matter and, without it, investment would be massively smaller if banks had to hold most or all of their deposits as easily liquid assets.

But if a few people get the idea that a bank is in trouble, they induce a run on that bank.

I saw something that pointed out that even if SVB sold its assets at a significant discount, they'd still have billions of dollars left over once they settled customer liabilities. They aren't seemingly bankrupt or otherwise insolvent; it's simply a case of not being able to liquidate their assets quickly enough.

Exactly this.

 

[bluesince76]

I work for CS in their Zurich HQ..They have trillions in assets but all this bad publicity is like a self fulfilling prophecy..Everyone is being spooked and pulling out their money, all at once this causes liquidity issues which then causes it to have to stop withdrawals, which then causes panic like a snowball effect, as they cannot sell assets (like real estate or another part of the company) as quick as Dave, George and Mildred want their nest eggs. The bank is too big to fail so won't be allowed too, but all these whispers are causing the problems.

Doesn't even need to be a bank - post on Facebook that you work at a refinery and there's going to be a petrol shortage which is why the government is making sure all the army trucks are filled up and by next week there will be a petrol shortage as everyone brims their car on a daily basis.

There were Muppets the other week stockpiling bananas and cucumbers because their might be a shortage. And you wonder how people fall for Nigerian prince scams...

 

[GornikDaze]

Doesn't even need to be a bank - post on Facebook that you work at a refinery and there's going to be a petrol shortage which is why the government is making sure all the army trucks are filled up and by next week there will be a petrol shortage as everyone brims their car on a daily basis.

There were Muppets the other week stockpiling bananas and cucumbers because their might be a shortage. And you wonder how people fall for Nigerian prince scams...

Well now you mention it, I am actually a Nigerian prince but although I’m extremely wealthy (multi billionaire) my assets aren’t liquid. If you could send me a few quid, I’ll give it you back with interest in a few years….

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Probably not.

1. Crypto was always a bubble and anyone with an ounce of sense saw this coming years ago.
2. The tech sector has been struggling for over a year and a bank like SV with an over exposure to one market were always going to get hit.

SV’s problem wasn’t being the Tech bank of choice, it was the pathetic risk management of their Treasury portfolio in a rising interest rate market, as their deposits exploded with VC money!