If we can keep up a top 2-3 level points haul over Christmas & New Year, the other teams will start prioriitising the other competitions.
We don't need to keep up this incredible run we are on now, just a typical, every season style, points haul for a top side is enough from now on. If we drop points, so will they.
Spot on. Indeed, I did a bit of maths after the derby and this seems an appropriate place to share the results.
If we get 44 points from our last 22 games, we finish on 90 points, and never has that total failed to clinch the title (89 failed once, and hugely entertaining it was, too, as readers may remember!). Anyway, two points per game from now on is the equivalent of 76 points across a whole season, which these days invariably doesn't even get a team all that close to the title. And 44 points from 22 games would be achieved with a record of, for instance, W - 13 D - 5 L - 4. So that would be a team that's failed to win only a single league game by mid-December slipping up in over 40% of the remaining matches - I reckon that's a fairly conservative contingency built in for fatigue and injuries resulting from fixture pile-ups.
To match us on the hypothetical 90 points, the Rags would have to claim 55 points from now on (and they'd still need to make up a goal difference deficit of 12 to deny us the title). That's 2.5 points per game - equivalent to 95 points over a season, which is the seasonal record tally for 38 games that Mourinho's Chelsea set over a decade ago. The others in the top six would have even more hurculean tasks - most of all Spurs, who have dropped points in half their 16 games so far but would need to win 20 and draw two out of their last 22 matches to reach us on the hypothetical 90, making up a goal difference deficit of 23 in the process.
I suppose you never know, and like many of us who loved through the eighties and nineties, I'm a real old-school blue pessimist. As such, I'm not going to start banging on about the title being won - it isn't - but, bloody hell, we aren't half in a fantastic position already.