Pep Guardiola - 2019/20 Performances

[waspish]

It's called getting your excuses in early.

In any other walk of life, if your boss talked you down in public, constantly said you weren't good enough to get to the top of your field, constantly said your competitors were bigger and stronger than your company, and to top it off constantly insulted your customers he or she would be dismissed.

If any other city manager of the last 40 years had done so he would be chased out of town by us the fans, never mind the board.

If pep had spoken like this so consistently about Bayern or barca he would have been dismissed.

If City continue to take this sort of insult lying down it will become a self fulfilling prophecy, as it has done so already.

He took over a team that was old and stale but had just been managed to a semi final and lavished hundreds of millions on new players. He has been given every conceivable advantage. His wish is the clubs command. And yet he has undoubtedly taken us backwards in Europe. We have done very well indeed in the league and domestic cups which will - correctly - buy him time but, honestly, I think the club should warn him about these comments and if they happen again he should be dismissed.

I'm tired of seeing my club being managed by a man that quite obviously, and publicly, wants the world to know he thinks he is doing it a favour by agreeing to manage them.

Once more and he should be sacked. Very publicly. Some things are more important that domestic trophies. Self respect is one of them. This man does not respect this club.

Yep problem is he has mates at the top and seems he can say what he wants! This is where Khaldoon should step in and have a word! This the only bug bear with Pep putting the fans down! Would like someone to ask him who was the first team to win a European trophy Liverpool or Man City!

 

[ADegenerate]

Love the passion and the quote about getting the excuses in early. That’s true. Peps a genius, realist, a pragmatist, and just a little bit on the enigmatic side. I think he knows he has no shot at it and he can’t help himself but to take some of that pressure off his shoulders. I don’t fault him at all for it.

@Kazzydeyna didn’t make a point that I could say was wrong, but we can also try to put the shoe on the other foot. This man was brought in as a footballing god and savior. Looking back on it ... the celebration and personal introduction to the city was EXTREMELY over the top. Can you imagine the pressure associated with that? To be fair to Pep, I think he’s already established himself that that expectation was warranted.

I know quite a lot about game theory. It’s an unavoidable branch of mathematics that you can’t dismiss in zero sum games. Trust me I tried for years to ignore it to my detriment. Poker Cash game strategy/theory (the league) and tournament strategy/theory (the CL) are totally different animals. Night and day different actually. You can’t apply the same principals to both. It’s undeniable and Pep is your proof of that which I’ll get into. They apply to all zero sum games and football is another version of that branch. A system that’s perfect for one (the league) is abysmal in the other (tournaments).

His system isn’t built for the CL. It’s built for league domination. There’s no other way around it. He plays too rigid off a system to play perfect football for 7 games starting at the round of 16 and that’s why he will always be prone to upsets. He’s such a perfectionist to the point of it being damaging and predictable. when you play the likes of say Real Madrid, Athleti, Bayern, and then say Barca/Liverpool in the finals you aren’t going to play 7 games of great beautiful football. You’re going to get caught out trying to play perfectly. You have to take risks and chances and that’s not what we do. The teams are too good and the stakes are too high. You can’t play generic football that works in the long term vs great teams for four rounds of near equal competition. Your individual level has to be greater than the mean when the margins are so small and the talent so equal. he doesn’t teach players to play in that manner (runs them out actually as sane might be another one). It’s system, system, system.

Just to prove the difference in necessary strategical differences needed in the two formats... look at the last four teams he was knocked out by....athleti, Monaco, pool, Tottenham. They went for it and Pep was rigid. That’s four rounds where he was the better side. It’ll continue to happen too.

 

[MCBlueFan]

Love the passion and the quote about getting the excuses in early. That’s true. Peps a genius, realist, a pragmatist, and just a little bit on the enigmatic side. I think he knows he has no shot at it and he can’t help himself but to take some of that pressure off his shoulders. I don’t fault him at all for it.

@Kazzydeyna didn’t make a point that I could say was wrong, but we can also try to put the shoe on the other foot. This man was brought in as a footballing god and savior. Looking back on it ... the celebration and personal introduction to the city was EXTREMELY over the top. Can you imagine the pressure associated with that? To be fair to Pep, I think he’s already established himself that that expectation was warranted.

I know quite a lot about game theory. It’s an unavoidable branch of mathematics that you can’t dismiss in zero sum games. Trust me I tried for years Poker Cash game strategy/theory (the league) and tournament strategy/theory (the CL) are totally different animals. Night and day different actually. You can’t apply the same principals to both. It’s undeniable and Pep is your proof of that which I’ll get into. They apply to all zero sum games and football is another version of that branch. A system that’s perfect for one (the league) is abysmal in the other (tournaments).

His system isn’t built for the CL. It’s built for league domination. There’s no other way around it. He plays too rigid off a system to play perfect football for 7 games starting at the round of 16 and that’s why he will always be prone to upsets. He’s such a perfectionist to the point of it being damaging and predictable. when you play the likes of say Real Madrid, Athleti, Bayern, and then say Barca/Liverpool in the finals you aren’t going to play 7 games of great beautiful football. You’re going to get caught out trying to play perfectly. You have to take risks and chances and that’s not what we do. The teams are too good and the stakes are too high. You can’t play generic football that works in the long term vs great teams for three rounds of near equal competition. Your individual level has to be greater than the mean when the margins are so small and the talent so equal. he doesn’t teach players to play in that manner. It’s system, system, system.

Just to prove the different in necessary strategical differences needed in the two formats... look at the last four teams he was knocked out by....athleti, Monaco, pool, Tottenham. They went for it and Pep was rigid. That’s four rounds where he was the better side. It’ll continue to happen too.

I respectfully disagree.

Pep, more than any other manager, is a workaholic - he studies opposition tapes for hours on end - and then picks his side and formation accordingly - often fielding unorthodox teams to fit novel tactics specifically designed to counter the opposition.

For me, Pep is a huge believer in retention of the football and winning it back quickly as a means of defense - other than that - he seems to be extremely flexible - willing to change tactics/strategy whenever it seems best - for example, gone is the supposed 10 touches (10 may be wrong) before scoring a goal - gone is the unwillingness to play long balls - etc. In place of this, are novel tactics tailor-fit to exploit opposition weaknesses.

 

[ADegenerate]

I respectfully disagree.

Pep, more than any other manager, is a workaholic - he studies opposition tapes for hours on end - and then picks his side and formation accordingly - often fielding unorthodox teams to fit novel tactics specifically designed to counter the opposition.

For me, Pep is a huge believer in retention of the football and winning it back quickly as a means of defense - other than that - he seems to be extremely flexible - willing to change tactics/strategy whenever it seems best - for example, gone is the supposed 10 touches (10 may be wrong) before scoring a goal - gone is the unwillingness to play long balls - etc. In place of this, are novel tactics tailor-fit to exploit opposition weaknesses.

The beauty of sports (all zero sum games) is that there is no perfect strategy. The added element of luck means EVERY strategy and system can be exploited and the game is always evolving. The key to being ahead of the curve is exploiting things that others aren’t. Ball retention, pressing, and not playing long balls isn’t the end all be all. In fact it’s a decade old system that every manager in the world is used to seeing done.

We’re talking about two different approaches here. What you’re talking about is optimal league play and Pep is the master of that. We’re in complete agreement there. My issue and the mistakes that I clearly see (the results back me up on it) is the unwillingness to broaden individual risk/reward calculations for the players in favor of playing ‘to the game plan’.

The opposition coaches are too good, the opposition players are too good, and the scouting is too good to think that you can come up with a master strategy to perfectly pick them apart for 7 CL games. To win tournaments you have to get lucky to win them. To get lucky you have to take risks and Pep is fundamentally opposed to that at his core. Lesser opposition know that they are in a knockout situation vs a better team. It’s pretty simple strategy to realize that the best counter is to just go for it all. Playing a safe strategy with a rigid game plan that you just mentioned leaves you playing your standard game and the opposition playing a higher standard.

Trust me, it’s terrible strategy and why he keeps getting knocked out. Ball retention is extremely overrated. It’s a big key but the biggest key is chance creation. Pep’s been outdone by Klopp because Klopps teams take more risks and create more unexpected chances. They play long balls over the top, they whip it in at any instance from their fullbacks, the aren’t afraid to play through balls trying to get in behind. They’re unpredictable and fearless and thats the system and style of play that’s optimal for tournaments. Back to back finals just points that out clearly.

I don’t see fearless play from us. The theory, logic, and results back me up on that with my argument against city (poor). What works pool (back to back finals) illustrating that.

 

[Tugay One Cup]

I respectfully disagree.

Pep, more than any other manager, is a workaholic - he studies opposition tapes for hours on end [\QUOTE]

Despite what some of my recent comments might look like, I really admire Pep and am still fascinated by the way he works.

However, comments like that are way over the top. More than any other manager? People like Bielsa are at least equally as invested in their work and there will be other who people simply don't make a song and dance over.

 

[MCBlueFan]

The beauty of sports (all zero sum games) is that there is no perfect strategy. The added element of luck means EVERY strategy and system can be exploited and the game is always evolving. The key to being ahead of the curve is exploiting things that others aren’t. Ball retention, pressing, and not playing long balls isn’t the end all be all. In fact it’s a decade old system that every manager in the world is used to seeing done.

We’re talking about two different approaches here. What you’re talking about is optimal league play and Pep is the master of that. We’re in complete agreement there. My issue and the mistakes that I clearly see (the results back me up on it) is the unwillingness to broaden individual risk/reward calculations for the players in favor of playing ‘to the game plan’.

The opposition coaches are too good, the opposition players are too good, and the scouting is too good to think that you can come up with a master strategy to perfectly pick them apart for 7 CL games. To win tournaments you have to get lucky to win them. To get lucky you have to take risks and Pep is fundamentally opposed to that at his core. Lesser opposition know that they are in a knockout situation vs a better team. It’s pretty simple strategy to realize that the best counter is to just go for it all. Playing a safe strategy with a rigid game plan that you just mentioned leaves you playing your standard game and the opposition playing a higher standard.

Trust me, it’s terrible strategy and why he keeps getting knocked out. Ball retention is extremely overrated. It’s a big key but the biggest key is chance creation. Pep’s been outdone by Klopp because Klopps teams take more risks and create more unexpected chances. They play long balls over the top, they whip it in at any instance from their fullbacks, the aren’t afraid to play through balls trying to get in behind. They’re unpredictable and fearless and thats the system and style of play that’s optimal for tournaments. Back to back finals just points that out clearly.

I don’t see fearless play from us. The theory, logic, and results back me up on that with my argument against city (poor). What works pool (back to back finals) illustrating that.

The best strategy regardless of sport - seems to be all out pressure/attack - which Pep ascribes to.

Even if the opposing team is much better - if you instantly attack and regain the ball - that's the best strategy - in basketball and football where such tactics apply.
====
We've been outdone by Klopp because he has a much, much better side - Klopp has a very good offense, a decent mid, and the best defensive/offensive-combination 4 in world football.

Whereas we have a very good offense, a good attacking mid, but lacking a bit on press, and a barely adequate defense.

We gift goals to the opposition on numerous occasions - LB can't defend, one or both CB's incapable of dealing with balls over the top.
=====
Yet... ball retention, pressing is the key to wining.

The reason why we're not winning with this strategy atm - is that we fail to win the ball back quickly following turnover and our defense is terrible.

 

[ADegenerate]

The best strategy regardless of sport - seems to be all out pressure/attack - which Pep ascribes to.

Even if the opposing team is much better - if you instantly attack and regain the ball - that's the best strategy - in basketball and football where such tactics apply.
====
We've been outdone by Klopp because he has a much, much better side - Klopp has a very good offense, a decent mid, and the best defensive/offensive-combination 4 in world football.

Whereas we have a very good offense, a good attacking mid, but lacking a bit on press, and a barely adequate defense.

We gift goals to the opposition on numerous occasions - LB can't defend, one or both CB's incapable of dealing with balls over the top.
=====
Yet... ball retention, pressing is the key to wining.

The reason why we're not winning with this strategy atm - is that we fail to win the ball back quickly following turnover and our defense is terrible.

The best strategy regardless of sport - seems to be all out pressure/attack - which Pep ascribes to.

Even if the opposing team is much better - if you instantly attack and regain the ball - that's the best strategy - in basketball and football where such tactics apply.
====
We've been outdone by Klopp because he has a much, much better side - Klopp has a very good offense, a decent mid, and the best defensive/offensive-combination 4 in world football.

Whereas we have a very good offense, a good attacking mid, but lacking a bit on press, and a barely adequate defense.

We gift goals to the opposition on numerous occasions - LB can't defend, one or both CB's incapable of dealing with balls over the top.
=====
Yet... ball retention, pressing is the key to wining.

The reason why we're not winning with this strategy atm - is that we fail to win the ball back quickly following turnover and our defense is terrible.

Great post and good discussion. I’ll get back to you tomorrow. Your post opens up wayyy too much room for discussion and I was supposed to go to bed three hours ago.

Cheers bud

 

[alexmcity]

The beauty of sports (all zero sum games) is that there is no perfect strategy. The added element of luck means EVERY strategy and system can be exploited and the game is always evolving. The key to being ahead of the curve is exploiting things that others aren’t. Ball retention, pressing, and not playing long balls isn’t the end all be all. In fact it’s a decade old system that every manager in the world is used to seeing done.

We’re talking about two different approaches here. What you’re talking about is optimal league play and Pep is the master of that. We’re in complete agreement there. My issue and the mistakes that I clearly see (the results back me up on it) is the unwillingness to broaden individual risk/reward calculations for the players in favor of playing ‘to the game plan’.

The opposition coaches are too good, the opposition players are too good, and the scouting is too good to think that you can come up with a master strategy to perfectly pick them apart for 7 CL games. To win tournaments you have to get lucky to win them. To get lucky you have to take risks and Pep is fundamentally opposed to that at his core. Lesser opposition know that they are in a knockout situation vs a better team. It’s pretty simple strategy to realize that the best counter is to just go for it all. Playing a safe strategy with a rigid game plan that you just mentioned leaves you playing your standard game and the opposition playing a higher standard.

Trust me, it’s terrible strategy and why he keeps getting knocked out. Ball retention is extremely overrated. It’s a big key but the biggest key is chance creation. Pep’s been outdone by Klopp because Klopps teams take more risks and create more unexpected chances. They play long balls over the top, they whip it in at any instance from their fullbacks, the aren’t afraid to play through balls trying to get in behind. They’re unpredictable and fearless and thats the system and style of play that’s optimal for tournaments. Back to back finals just points that out clearly.

I don’t see fearless play from us. The theory, logic, and results back me up on that with my argument against city (poor). What works pool (back to back finals) illustrating that.

We create more chances than Liverpool, big and small. Whether they are expected or unexpected means feck all. That's a poor point.

The outcome of games depends not only on tactics but also on luck, refereeing decisions, individual mistakes. You link too closely the latest 4 losses Pep suffered in the CL to tactics and almost completely disregard the other factors.

Bayern - Atleti 2014: Muller misses a pen when the result is 1:0 Bayern. Crucial individual mistake.

City - Monaco: it's doubtful tactics was the reason we conceded 3 goals each game, there was nothing rigid about our tactics, if anything it was too risky to play with Toure at DM and Dinho at FB.

City - Liverpool. First goal offside, a pen against Sterling not given, a Jesus goal not give due to a dubious offside decision, a legitimate goal by Sane ruled out - 4 crucial decisions went against City.

City - Spurs. Aguero misses a pen, Laporte has his worst game for City in the 2nd leg, Llorente scores after a handball, VAR strikes against City. Besides, we are after a quadruple and don't play our strongest team in the 1st leg.

If you take into account not only tactics but also luck, refereeing errors and individual mistakes, then your point becomes to crumble. You are right to point out that luck makes any sport strategy vulnerable but then completely ignore its role together with the role of individual mistakes and the referees when assessing the reasons for Pep's defeats in the CL.

 

[Tugay One Cup]

We create more chances than Liverpool, big and small. Whether they are expected or unexpected means feck all. That's a poor point.

The outcome of games depends not only on tactics but also on luck, refereeing decisions, individual mistakes. You link too closely the latest 4 losses Pep suffered in the CL to tactics and almost completely disregard the other factors.

Bayern - Atleti 2014: Muller misses a pen when the result is 1:0 Bayern. Crucial individual mistake.

City - Monaco: it's doubtful tactics was the reason we conceded 3 goals each game, there was nothing rigid about our tactics, if anything it was too risky to play with Toure at DM and Dinho at FB.

City - Liverpool. First goal offside, a pen against Sterling not given, a Jesus goal not give due to a dubious offside decision, a legitimate goal by Sane ruled out - 4 crucial decisions went against City.

City - Spurs. Aguero misses a pen, Laporte has his worst game for City in the 2nd leg, Llorente scores after a handball, VAR strikes against City. Besides, we are after a quadruple and don't play our strongest team in the 1st leg.

If you take into account not only tactics but also luck, refereeing errors and individual mistakes, then your point becomes to crumble. You are right to point out that luck makes any sport strategy vulnerable but then completely ignore its role together with the role of individual mistakes and the referees when assessing the reasons for Pep's defeats in the CL.

After a while you need to stop putting everything down to bad luck and start analysing where you can do better.

 

[St.Pauli support]

Good discussion indeed.

Maybe we thought Laporte and Stones would be the CB pairing that offers the right offensive/defensive mix.
Laporte seems the right man but is missing soooo much
while Stones has injuries now and then and trouble in his private life that didn't help - but I doubt he can copy the quality of VVD.

Let's pray Laporte is back fit next season, that alone would be a big step forward.