Colin, don't take my word for it. Just read CAS. The consequences of the Independent Commission finding against us are similar to those had CAS found against us.
City themselves argued that the consequences of a finding against them was "that a finding that Etihad’s sponsorship contributions were funded, or procured to be funded, by HHSM and/or ADUG would require a conclusion that the evidence of several high-ranking officials of large international commercial enterprises …were false and that at least Mr Hogan if not Mr Pearce would be subject to criminal sanctions." (see page 72 of CAS). Their words not mine.
Likewise, there really is no question that the allegations in respect of the sponsorship contracts amount to an allegation of accounting fraud. They are alleging the revenue (and profits) from the sponsorship contracts incorporated in our accounts are, in essence, fake. It is that simple. Again, don't take my word for it. City's own skeleton argument said "The allegations made by the CFCB in these proceedings are serious and based on fraud and conspiracy involving MCFC, ADUG and the sponsors Etisalat and Etihad." (see extract on page 24 of CAS). Their argument not mine.
Most of the rest of the analysis is not hugely applicable here - these aren't allegations of subjective interpretations of the accounting standards. I've been involved in those cases professionally for years including successfully defending a 7 year SFO investigation, potential class actions and other claims. I can tell the difference.
I would definitely agree that the Mancini situation seems highly improbable given the sums involved. And Fordham was public so I don't see that being the main issue. But on the sponsorships, don't listen to me, listen to City themselves. CAS should give us some comfort but the amount evidence in play with the IC will be very different because we know UEFA tried to rely on a handful of documents. That was always hopeless for such serious allegations. Serious allegations require serious proof in the form of cogent evidence.