Tragic Twat has spoken. City should admit to the charges, be relegated, and pay substantial damages. Only in his world.(see below)
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There is simply no way to know with any certainty. No-one can predict the future of something like this because there are too many variables. I do suspect that two matters will be absolutely crucial to whether the PL is successful or not though…
1. Whether the PL can sufficiently evidence the charges for failing to provide accurate details for player and manager payments (the off the books payments mentioned above) and in doing so, result in the IC making a finding of fact that some of the key players in the case were dishonest. The transaction evidence is there to back up the email arrangements and contracts. Do this… and it would weaken a key pillar of any defence - the credibility of those persons.
2. How the PL’s legal team addresses any attempt by Man City’s legal team to undermine the email evidence.
I do not see a world where the PL loses this case unless a plausible explanation for these emails’ existence is provided that does not involve the arrangements taking place.
This is because however powerful witness testimony is, there is the possibility it could be false. Given the nature of the alleged offences (that these well-respected people in powerful positions in Govt. and reputable organisations conspired to commit fraudulent acts) it is incoherent to accept this as a possibility but not accept a possibility that they would lie.
The same goes for any accounting evidence. If you accept the possibility that the allegations are true, then it would be incoherent to say that it’s not possible that accounting information could be tampered with as well.
I am not saying this has or will be done, or even that the IC will consider it likely. The starting position, before any evidence is heard, will be that it is inherently unlikely. I’m saying that given the nature of the charges, such possibilities cannot be dismissed.
However, what can be considered an impossibility is that the emails were written for no reason whatsoever. This is simply not possible. There has to be reason. The PL will assert the reason is that the arrangements described were undertaken. Man City must offer an alternative, reason for why they exist which contradicts this. Without that, the other evidence that Man City supplies will be insufficient because it would require the IC to make an unbelievable finding. Literally unbelievable.
So how might the Man City legal team address this? I do not know. Assuming they have no actual, plausible explanation for the emails, then If I were them, I would seek to tackle the emails one by one in a very lengthy way, adding as much complexity as I could to try and increase their ambiguity, and in doing so, reduce the focus of the IC members. The more you draw out the analysis on each; by the time you’ve finished with one, it’s hard to remember the start let alone the last one, limiting the impact they will have. Basically, you make it hard to see the wood for the trees. The PL’s legal team would need to manage such a challenge but it is very achievable.
Sadly the IC will not be public but hopefully, one day, we will get to read about it.
