Premium bonds

Relatively small amount that I add too each month and I've won fuck all in 4 years
 
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dickie davies said:
Here's a long read if you can be bothered
Summed up, statistically every bond has an equal chance of winning, but a block gives better chance of the smaller prizes

It's not as random as they lead you to beleive.

ERNIE does not select all the bond numbers issued. It only selects bonds that are current. Cashed in ones do not come out in the draw for obvious reasons.


From a statistic point of view, you have more chance of a big win in the lottery than Bonds.

However as I stated. You can buy a 30k block. This gives you 30000consecutive numbers. Each one has an equal chance of being selected at 70million to 1 or whatever it is.

Look at it like this.

You have number 1 to number 49. if number 2, or 48 come out. you will win a jackpot. if any number from 50 onwards comes out, you will get nothing. With the lorrery you have to pick 6 numbers, and hope the machine picks the same 6.

ERNIE randomly selects numbers and displays the 6 figure bonds, first, then 7 and so on. So if it selects a number within your 30000 consecutive number you will win. Your bond that won had as much chance as any other. but you have 30000 attempts.

Its a bigger dartboard to hit thats all.

If you have 6, 5000 bond dartboards, you spread your chances over a greater area, but you have 6 more times of the dart missing your block too.

If you have 30 x 1000 bond blocks. you have 30 more chances of it missing your selection. But each bond still has an equal chance of winning. The chances of a bond coming up don't alter if you have more, or less. You just have more chance of it finding yours.

Which is easier, hitting a moving target, or a fixed object. You fixed object is 30000consecutive numbers. or you can have 6 seperate fixed targets, or 30 smaller fixed targest, on indeed 300 smaller still fixed targets. If you buy them all in the same month, you will give someone else a chance to win in your bracket of numbers unless you group them all together.


I had 1 block of 5000 about 6 years ago. over 2 years, it won £250. Also over those years I kept reinvesting the wins, and added to them until I had 7000 bonds. All the wins came from the 5000block. Nothing came from the others


If you have a block of 30000. they estimate you will drop lukcy 8 times a year. (Thats with a random number generator? Interesting point) however, if you have less, you will win less.

You can prove this by doing the following.

Invest either 20k or 25k in one block, and the rsst in stages. One 5k block and maybe 5 1k blocks and see what happens in the year.


By taking them out and replacing them its submits new numbers to the end of the line and deletes the old ones. For some reason it seems to help, even though is random.......


same as if you write to them and ask if your old bond has won anything. Suddenly you find it comes up with a £50 win during the year.


Its electronic, it doesn't do Random in that sense. Whats random about it is, it is not programmed to pick a specific number, and it is unable to pick a specific number. However it is only programmed to pick from a range of numbers that cover all current bonds.

If it was genuinely random as people are led to beleive, it has a excellant habit of always picking a winner every month.

When you see a bond number, you will see that the statement they make about it picking a number, and the bond closest to matching that is selected, really isn't that accurate.

Wehn you see how many people are investing in it, you can see why your chances of the big win and pretty small indeed. But you do get to keep the investment so you only lose any possible interest on the money.

Its worth it, as its a safe way to gamble really.

But I say again, don't hope or expect the big win. a 1 in 70m chance, really does mean you have a better chance of being runover by a bus. There are only 60m or so people in the country.
Click to expand...
Statistical gibberish.
10,000 bought consecutively have exactly the same chance as 10,000 scattered around.
The only reason more recent numbers win is that 95% of all bonds ever bought have been bought since 2000.
 
£100 for me £25 for SWMBO on the back of a double blank last month, rolling annual return now at 3.6% for me, peaked at 4.3 so last few months have not been good
 
flook said:
£100 for me £25 for SWMBO on the back of a double blank last month, rolling annual return now at 3.6% for me, peaked at 4.3 so last few months have not been good
Click to expand...
Only 1.6% pa below the best rate available in savings accounts (term deposits at any rate).
 
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