Referees/Officials 2017/18 performances

[Bluearmy]

Apologies for the statto attack but i've been doing some investigation of results with various refs (I trade football matches on Betfair for some of my income)

It's easy to just react to a joker like Taylor yet again being allowed to hurt us, but is there real basis. The results are ridiculous...

I wont bore you with the full details but I looked at all games that Taylor has refereed including either us or the rags since the start of the 2011 season.
Compared with our overall results in those 6 seasons, when Taylor is in charge our points per game drops by 20% whilst the rags results unsurprisingly improve by 12%.
That's quite a swing immediately, but then I thought about it a bit more and decided to look at only games where the outcome had a maximum of 1 goal in it, the theory being that a dodgy ref will struggle to impact a very one sided game as a general rule (We had him v Watford and Swansea away and scored 10 so he was taken out of the equation.), but a few decisions can swing a tight game.

Over the 6 years since 2011/12, the Taylor effect produced a 25% drop in points against our average in tight games. Surprisingly the bias towards Utd isn't there in these games, so maybe he is wary of showing obvious bias to them, or just instinctively does enough to hurt us in tight games.

I then compared the Taylor stats with a couple of our our nemesis men in black, Pawson and Clattenburg and guess what , their stats matched Taylors.

In tight games with a "neutral" referee City averaged 1.76pts per game over those 6 years (124 matches)
However when the PGMOL three refereed us that plummets to just 1.03 points per game (29 matches)
Initially I thought that they had been given top 6 clashes hence the difference but that is not borne out on closer inspection - the games cover all types of opposition evenly.

For reference I did the same with the rags games and their average points with/without these jokers was virtually unchanged (ie no impact or obvious bias in the numbers)

1.76 pts per game to 1.03 is a MASSIVE difference and is way outside any "statistical variance". For me it simply reflects that with any of Taylor, Pawson or Clattenberk in charge we have been at a monstrous disadvantage. Those numbers simply cannot be easily explained any other way.
I have a rule which says that I dont bet on City games, but if I did, I would be looking very closely at opposing City if either Taylor or Pawson is in charge. That system shows a big profit over the 6 years I looked at - it's tempting just as an Anadin bet to cover the headache when we get screwed over by these jokers.

Really worried about Pawson on sunday now. Arsenal are nearly 5/1......

Praying that the boys are up for this and Eddie is in goal (doubt it)!! We need to smash them to take Pawson out of the equation.

Completely paranoid now...

Thank you so much for this analysis. I've been saying this for at least 4 years and was originally getting laughed at by my pals for saying certain referees, ref us differently. Funnily enough, most of them have now come around to this way of thinking but it's taken years. I'd add Walton to the list also, he was apauling for us. It got that bad for me, I've put bets on against us as I knew the chances were we'd get shafted. And as you say, I'm well up with bets when either Taylor, Clattenburg or Walton have been in charge of our games.

 

[Bluearmy]

If he had pulled the red then fair enough. It was a borderline red tbh. But to pull a yellow and write on it, then to produce a red was pretty much on the high end of the reffing incompe-o-meter.
The guy is a bad ref. He has shown it before and he will do it again unless it is highlighted and stopped.

Nothing to do with being a bad ref. A corrupt ref...

 

[Bluearmy]

It's a yellow at most.

I'd probably agree. But Delphs left leg is extended, his studs are showing. He's sliding in (not sure anymore if that's deemed out of control) not off the ground, his left leg actually goes through the Wigan players legs with virtually no contact then his trailing right knee makes contact with the ball and the players collide.
On its own, I can possibly see why it was given, despite there being far worse challenges going on without the same punishment. However, there's no way Taylor sends off Matic for that challenge in a mIllion years.

Then you factor in what's gone on with us this year. Sendings off for Walker for nothing against Everton. Sterling for celebrating a goal at Bournemouth.
Then the none sendings off against us, which is nothing short of ludicrous.

Gundogan tackle at Newcastle
Cook on Jesus tackle at Bournemouth
Aki at Bournemouth
Dann on KDB
Puncheon on KDB
Kane on Sterling
Sane at Cardiff
Townsend on Jesus
Alli on KDB
Diaz tackle wba
Foden at Leicester
McLean on KDB
Aguero tackle at Wigan

I've probably missed a few, but Pretty much all of those are far worse than Delph's yet none were red cards, and several didn't even get yellows. And this is in a back drop of us winning loads of games. So it's not because we have lost. There's something systematic going on....

 

[TBooksbluearmy]

I don't know if this has already been mentioned. I was listening to blue Tuesday on GMR yesterday, when a former ref Mark Halsey came on to make a comment about Monday night's incident involving Fabien Delph. Basically what he said was that once the yellow card came out and he had written Fabien 's name on the card he can't then change his mind. So there fore the club has a strong ground for an appeal. Also that it appeared that he was listening to what the 4th official was saying rather than the official who was running the line. Again another ground for the appeal. He also thought that the 4th official maybe have been influenced by the Wigan manager, which if he was there again is another reason to appeal.
So in hidden meaning to his words is that Anthony Taylor is not good enough to be a ref. for the premier league. Which is what all we city fans knew already.

 

[Bluearmy]

Going back to that Chelsea game, Halsey was interviewed at City Square a couple of weeks later and although he was entertaining City fans so is bound to show some bias, he was absolutely scathing with regards to Taylor's performance. He talked through what Taylor should have done in pre match preparation (Aguero's and Luiz's previous) and then his scandalous decision not to send Luiz off and by the end of the game said Taylor, due to his own incompetence had totally lost control of the players

Look what happens in the end at both of those games (Chelsea/Wigan). Chaos, benches at each other, punches thrown, players kicking off, pitch invasion, sendings off (for us of course). Exactly what Taylor wanted. He was the catalyst to it all on both occasions. He should be nowhere near the game, never mind city games. Bent as fuck

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I don't know if this has already been mentioned. I was listening to blue Tuesday on GMR yesterday, when a former ref Mark Halsey came on to make a comment about Monday night's incident involving Fabien Delph. Basically what he said was that once the yellow card came out and he had written Fabien 's name on the card he can't then change his mind. So there fore the club has a strong ground for an appeal. Also that it appeared that he was listening to what the 4th official was saying rather than the official who was running the line. Again another ground for the appeal. He also thought that the 4th official maybe have been influenced by the Wigan manager, which if he was there again is another reason to appeal.
So in hidden meaning to his words is that Anthony Taylor is not good enough to be a ref. for the premier league. Which is what all we city fans knew already.

I think Halsey's words were all about 'best practice' and not the rules on refereeing. More 'should do' than 'must do'.

I don't think there is any appeal grounds if the ref says he saw it or got definite advice from a linesman. He's entitled to take advice from the other three and act accordingly, and that also offers no grounds.
It's just about impossible (bar admission) to prove the 4th official was spineless. "may have" isn't enough.

 

[blueinsa]

I don't know if this has already been mentioned. I was listening to blue Tuesday on GMR yesterday, when a former ref Mark Halsey came on to make a comment about Monday night's incident involving Fabien Delph. Basically what he said was that once the yellow card came out and he had written Fabien 's name on the card he can't then change his mind. So there fore the club has a strong ground for an appeal. Also that it appeared that he was listening to what the 4th official was saying rather than the official who was running the line. Again another ground for the appeal. He also thought that the 4th official maybe have been influenced by the Wigan manager, which if he was there again is another reason to appeal.
So in hidden meaning to his words is that Anthony Taylor is not good enough to be a ref. for the premier league. Which is what all we city fans knew already.

The same 4th official who has Cook the Wigan manager bending his ear in the moments before yellow turn to red?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Apologies for the statto attack but i've been doing some investigation of results with various refs (I trade football matches on Betfair for some of my income)

It's easy to just react to a joker like Taylor yet again being allowed to hurt us, but is there real basis. The results are ridiculous...

I wont bore you with the full details but I looked at all games that Taylor has refereed including either us or the rags since the start of the 2011 season.
Compared with our overall results in those 6 seasons, when Taylor is in charge our points per game drops by 20% whilst the rags results unsurprisingly improve by 12%.
That's quite a swing immediately, but then I thought about it a bit more and decided to look at only games where the outcome had a maximum of 1 goal in it, the theory being that a dodgy ref will struggle to impact a very one sided game as a general rule (We had him v Watford and Swansea away and scored 10 so he was taken out of the equation.), but a few decisions can swing a tight game.

Over the 6 years since 2011/12, the Taylor effect produced a 25% drop in points against our average in tight games. Surprisingly the bias towards Utd isn't there in these games, so maybe he is wary of showing obvious bias to them, or just instinctively does enough to hurt us in tight games.

I then compared the Taylor stats with a couple of our our nemesis men in black, Pawson and Clattenburg and guess what , their stats matched Taylors.

In tight games with a "neutral" referee City averaged 1.76pts per game over those 6 years (124 matches)
However when the PGMOL three refereed us that plummets to just 1.03 points per game (29 matches)
Initially I thought that they had been given top 6 clashes hence the difference but that is not borne out on closer inspection - the games cover all types of opposition evenly.

For reference I did the same with the rags games and their average points with/without these jokers was virtually unchanged (ie no impact or obvious bias in the numbers)

1.76 pts per game to 1.03 is a MASSIVE difference and is way outside any "statistical variance". For me it simply reflects that with any of Taylor, Pawson or Clattenberk in charge we have been at a monstrous disadvantage. Those numbers simply cannot be easily explained any other way.
I have a rule which says that I dont bet on City games, but if I did, I would be looking very closely at opposing City if either Taylor or Pawson is in charge. That system shows a big profit over the 6 years I looked at - it's tempting just as an Anadin bet to cover the headache when we get screwed over by these jokers.

Really worried about Pawson on sunday now. Arsenal are nearly 5/1......

Praying that the boys are up for this and Eddie is in goal (doubt it)!! We need to smash them to take Pawson out of the equation.

Completely paranoid now...

Who are the PiGMOL three?

 

[Bluearmy]

Who are the PiGMOL three?

Pawson, Clattenburg and Taylor.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Pawson, Clattenburg and Taylor.

Cheers. I'd seen those three names, but wasn't sure if they were the 3 referred to in a different part.

Seems like an odd three - one's gone, and Mason isn't one of them. I'd take Pawson over Mason any day.

Also Pawson has reffed City 9 times in the PL in total - 5W 3D 1L. Six were away and the defeat was at Liverpool. No sendings off, and the 3 draws were in 2015 or 2016, all away.

(according to http://www.worldfootball.net/referee_summary/craig-pawson/manchester-city/4/)