Referees/Officials 2017/18 performances

[TBooksbluearmy]

With Pep refusing to appeal Fabian's red card, Pep has given Anthony Taylor the green light to again send off 1 of our players for no reason what so ever. I am sorry pep but on this occasion I know that along with most of the other City fans an appeal should have gone in straight away. This on the grounds that once the yellow card was in his hands the ref can't then change his mind especially after he had already written his name on the card.

 

[Bill]

fergie wouldn't stand for a ref like Taylor. neither should we.

 

[Bluearmy]

Cheers. I'd seen those three names, but wasn't sure if they were the 3 referred to in a different part.

Seems like an odd three - one's gone, and Mason isn't one of them. I'd take Pawson over Mason any day.

I'd of said Walton was one from a few years back too. But there's no arguing with those statistics. Eye opening

 

[MillionMilesAway]

With Pep refusing to appeal Fabian's red card, Pep has given Anthony Taylor the green light to again send off 1 of our players for no reason what so ever. I am sorry pep but on this occasion I know that along with most of the other City fans an appeal should have gone in straight away. This on the grounds that once the yellow card was in his hands the ref can't then change his mind especially after he had already written his name on the card.

I'd be staggered if that was a rule.

 

[San Tropez]

Apologies for the statto attack but i've been doing some investigation of results with various refs (I trade football matches on Betfair for some of my income)

It's easy to just react to a joker like Taylor yet again being allowed to hurt us, but is there real basis. The results are ridiculous...

I wont bore you with the full details but I looked at all games that Taylor has refereed including either us or the rags since the start of the 2011 season.
Compared with our overall results in those 6 seasons, when Taylor is in charge our points per game drops by 20% whilst the rags results unsurprisingly improve by 12%.
That's quite a swing immediately, but then I thought about it a bit more and decided to look at only games where the outcome had a maximum of 1 goal in it, the theory being that a dodgy ref will struggle to impact a very one sided game as a general rule (We had him v Watford and Swansea away and scored 10 so he was taken out of the equation.), but a few decisions can swing a tight game.

Over the 6 years since 2011/12, the Taylor effect produced a 25% drop in points against our average in tight games. Surprisingly the bias towards Utd isn't there in these games, so maybe he is wary of showing obvious bias to them, or just instinctively does enough to hurt us in tight games.

I then compared the Taylor stats with a couple of our our nemesis men in black, Pawson and Clattenburg and guess what , their stats matched Taylors.

In tight games with a "neutral" referee City averaged 1.76pts per game over those 6 years (124 matches)
However when the PGMOL three refereed us that plummets to just 1.03 points per game (29 matches)
Initially I thought that they had been given top 6 clashes hence the difference but that is not borne out on closer inspection - the games cover all types of opposition evenly.

For reference I did the same with the rags games and their average points with/without these jokers was virtually unchanged (ie no impact or obvious bias in the numbers)

1.76 pts per game to 1.03 is a MASSIVE difference and is way outside any "statistical variance". For me it simply reflects that with any of Taylor, Pawson or Clattenberk in charge we have been at a monstrous disadvantage. Those numbers simply cannot be easily explained any other way.
I have a rule which says that I dont bet on City games, but if I did, I would be looking very closely at opposing City if either Taylor or Pawson is in charge. That system shows a big profit over the 6 years I looked at - it's tempting just as an Anadin bet to cover the headache when we get screwed over by these jokers.

Really worried about Pawson on sunday now. Arsenal are nearly 5/1......

Praying that the boys are up for this and Eddie is in goal (doubt it)!! We need to smash them to take Pawson out of the equation.

Completely paranoid now...

Thank you for posting that info.

As someone who writes mathematical models for a living where it becomes second nature to spot patterns I have long suspected Taylor swings the results against us in tight matches. And it is not just the outcome of the actual match that affects us; it is future matches too with the red cards. The patterns are interesting. For example, his red cards don't just go to anybody - they go to the one area likely to have the most negative impact/weaken us the most in future matches/an area we don't have adequate cover in - last season it was Ferna and Aguero, which pretty much killed our season off, esp cos of Ferna. This time it's the left back position. It does appear he is being told who he can or cannot send off (in his earpiece).

Had Wigan been a PL match and us ahead by 16 points, I am willing to bet there would not have been a red card. His actions are strategic - has to be something that ensures we don't win the PL or don't win quadruple. Reduce number of competitions we can win in a given season. He gets assigned to these key matches. But why?

When was the last time we got fined for failing to control our players in a close match, why does this happen when Taylor is the ref?

Somebody needs to get to the bottom of what is going on with Taylor.

Very least, get him off our matches. If Everton could do it with Cheatingburg sure we can do it to this scum.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I'd of said Walton was one from a few years back too. But there's no arguing with those statistics. Eye opening

Overall, astonishing, yes.

See my amended comment above for Pawson - 9 matches and we've lost 1.

With Taylor, it's 8-3-2 (Leicester at home in 2016 and the Chelsea fiasco for the defeats). Darwas were Liverpool (H, 2012-3), Soton (A, 2013-4), Arsenal (H, 2015-6).

Between them: 13-6-3 over 6 seasons (plus an early match vs Villa under Taylor).

 

[Bluearmy]

Overall, astonishing, yes.

See my amended comment above for Pawson - 9 matches and we've lost 1.

With Taylor, it's 8-3-2 (Leicester at home in 2016 and the Chelsea fiasco for the defeats). Darwas were Liverpool (H, 2012-3), Soton (A, 2013-4), Arsenal (H, 2015-6).

Between them: 13-6-3 over 6 seasons (plus an early match vs Villa under Taylor).

@Bell1970 , does this match your data?

Mod note. Ive edited your post mate to include the @ symbol before the username.

If you do this it highlights in blue and the member you are addressing gets a notification so they dont miss the post.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

@Bell1970 , does this match your data?

Mod note. Ive edited your post mate to include the @ symbol before the username.

If you do this it highlights in blue and the member you are addressing gets a notification so they dont miss the post.

I suspect it will. I guess some comes down to what he includes in 'tight' matches.

 

[San Tropez]

Overall, astonishing, yes.

See my amended comment above for Pawson - 9 matches and we've lost 1.

With Taylor, it's 8-3-2 (Leicester at home in 2016 and the Chelsea fiasco for the defeats). Darwas were Liverpool (H, 2012-3), Soton (A, 2013-4), Arsenal (H, 2015-6).

Between them: 13-6-3 over 6 seasons (plus an early match vs Villa under Taylor).

With Taylor 'how many matches we lose under him' is not a significant parameter, rather it is WHICH matches do we lose under him?

For example, any ref could have been assigned v Liverpool away, it was a match we could afford to lose, so an asset such as Taylor was not going to be wasted on that match.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

There are some odd things.

Clattenburg career league matches:
Utd – 15-10-8
City – 18-11-8


It looks really odd as to where we have had Clattenburg though:
2004-2011: 11 home, 3 away. 9 wins total
2011-2017: 5 home, 18 away. 9 wins total
**
Pawson:
Utd - 8-3-1
City - 5-3-1

Utd: 6 home, 6 away, 8 wins (1 against a top 6 side, 1 win)
City: 3 home, 6 away, 5 wins (2 against a top 6 side, 1 win)
**
Taylor
Utd - 13-1-5
City - 8-3-2

Utd: 7 home, 12 away, 13 wins (only 3 matches against a top 6 side, with no wins)
City: 8 home, 5 away, 8 wins (only 3 matches against a top 6 side, all at home, also with no wins)