west didsblue
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Which is a trading name of Athelney Campaigns Ltd. A company whose owner and only director is Reform UK campaigner Robert Bates. As I said, no credibility at all.
Reform 2025 Limited new name same business
- Thread starter bluethrunthru
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The reason they have to produce this stuff is because the Home office choose not to as they know we won't like the results.
Whatever form the next government takes Tory / Reform or a mix of both , I am sure we will then see the truth exposed. Jenrick knows and resigned from the Home office.
The truth will come.
Who have to cobble the info together from freedom of information requests as the Home Office don't want to tell you the numbers.
babyape
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If you’re laying all your hopes on Jenrick. You’re further gone than I thought.
Christ alive
west didsblue
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Interesting that the company name is the same as a long defunct small publisher responsible for a number of publications used by white nationalists. I’m willing to bet that the statistics you posted are totally made up.
BobKowalski
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‘The truth will be exposed!’
Yeah, a bit like the Epstein files in the US. You stupid bastards are so fucking gullible I’m almost tempted to join the right wing grifting circuit and milk that stupidity for cash.
You really don't think migrants are more likely to commit a sexual assault. Only in your bubble Bob.
I know you won't accept any Roma families on your road, how about turning a nice 5 or 6 bed on your road into a HMO
for some of those poor undocumented migrant lads in Epping. Would you write a letter to support that planning application ?
Let us know.
In the meantime, I can wait the 4 years or so to turn the truth about migrant crime out of the home office.
I appreciate a lot of this is difficult to find, and there's always going to be debate around stats, but I'm not sure Robert Jenrick is particularly honourable in this area.
I don't know if you've seen this, but there's an interesting piece linked below, on some stats that Robert Jenrick has used a number of times, about small boat migrants being 24 times more likely to be in prison.
It's shockingly bad statistics - the figures were actually for all foreigners in prison, and had nothing to do with small boats at all - but some of it was beyond comprehension. I notice that Somalis are near the the top of that list you've quoted, and the report in question was suggesting that a quite astonishing 12% of Somalis were in prison. The true figure turns out to be between 0.15% and 0.24%. There are only about 250 Somalis in prison, when the ONS said there 176,645 people who said they were Somali in the last census (which would mean they're about as likely as UK born citizens to be in prison).
Are Small Boat Migrants Really 24x More Likely to Go to Prison?
Spoiler: No. But here’s how the media got suckered by bad data and worse assumptions.
monkdebunks.substack.com
The fact that Jenrick was happy to discuss this on the BBC and with other media outlets, suggests we should probably take stats he uses with a pinch of salt, as he's certainly not taking much care in checking them.
Main Stand Hotdog
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Alright mate, fucking hell, you win the 'I've lived in London longer' competition I didn't realise I was in.
My original point was that people who don't live in London believe a lot of the made up shit Farage et al spout about fear of the other and crime waves by certain demographics e.g. Sharia Law zones and the supposed Gauntlet of inescapable Romanian pick pockets on Oxford Road a few years ago.
If Farage wants to talk about solutions about how to combat crime in Westminster beyond blaming foreigners I'm all ears but he won't because as always he wants to stoke fears about Johnny foreigner and ride that wave of populism. And when/if he does get in to number 10 and inevitably make a dog's dick of it all, I'm sure just like Brexit it won't be his fault.
I couldn't find this on the CMC website, but I have found a similar report on crime they've prepared, and it appears that they're using the wrong figures.
This report below...
UK's First Migrant Crime Report
The UK's first ever migrant crime report, produced by the Centre for Migration Control, shows the scale of the crisis gripping Britain.
www.migrationcentral.co.uk
Says it uses stats from the ONS for the estimate of each 'national group. Yet they think there are 23,000 Somalis in the UK, when the last census said there were 178000.
They appear to be using this data, which is so incomplete, that I really can't believe they didn't spot it. For example, there's apparently not a single Somali national living in the North West, North East, Yorkshire, East Midlands, South East (outside London) or the East of England.
Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality: individual country data (Discontinued after June 2021) - Office for National Statistics
UK residents by individual countries of birth and citizenship, broken down by UK country, local authority, unitary authority, metropolitan and London boroughs, and counties. Estimates from the Annual Population Survey.
www.ons.gov.uk
In fact, the ONLY nationality that's fully counted in those stats is British people. If they're vastly underestimating the population of every nationality, except British then it's no surprise that Brits are bottom of a table of charges/10,000 people.
The Future’s Blue!
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I’m sure I read about this graph very recently. It was originally stated by Chris Philp without any evidence to back it up, quickly followed by the likes of the Mail, Telegraph, et al, so soon became fact. When checked, it was found that the data used was skewed and something to with the % based for Somalia was completely out of kilter with reality.
Then again, it was false data with regard to foreign prisoners, not sexual offences. Suppose there’s nothing wrong with changing a header or 2.
I think they're two different reports, but they've both made the same mistake (I've mentioned it in two posts above) - they all appear to use the correct data for the number of crimes, but vastly underestimate the populations involved, so that the different foreign nationalities appear to commit a LOT more crimes than they do in reality.
That Chris Philp one had up to 80 times as many Somalis in prison than the reality.
I am willing to bet they will be reasonably accurate, can't say more than that as they can only compile what they can squeeze out of the home office. If they are wrong than our migrants will be much better behaved than those in other European countries where the information is more accessible
It's no surprise at all that there would be errors in the numbers. they are patching them together from freedom of information requests and any source they can get. Successive governments have obfuscated the issue as far as they can . The government have promised to do some proper analysis and report on it by the end of the year, we will see what that looks like.I couldn't find this on the CMC website, but I have found a similar report on crime they've prepared, and it appears that they're using the wrong figures.
This report below...
UK's First Migrant Crime Report
The UK's first ever migrant crime report, produced by the Centre for Migration Control, shows the scale of the crisis gripping Britain.
Says it uses stats from the ONS for the estimate of each 'national group. Yet they think there are 23,000 Somalis in the UK, when the last census said there were 178000.
They appear to be using this data, which is so incomplete, that I really can't believe they didn't spot it. For example, there's apparently not a single Somali national living in the North West, North East, Yorkshire, East Midlands, South East (outside London) or the East of England.
Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality: individual country data (Discontinued after June 2021) - Office for National Statistics
UK residents by individual countries of birth and citizenship, broken down by UK country, local authority, unitary authority, metropolitan and London boroughs, and counties. Estimates from the Annual Population Survey.www.ons.gov.uk
In fact, the ONLY nationality that's fully counted in those stats is British people. If they're vastly underestimating the population of every nationality, except British then it's no surprise that Brits are bottom of a table of charges/10,000 people.
In countries that have been more open migrant crime reporting e.g Sweden, Denmark, the numbers are pretty shocking. I don't see why behaviour would be any different here.
bluethrunthru
Well-Known Member
If the information is held by the Home Office the obvious conclusion is that the stuff others produce is just bullshit made up conjecture because they will not have access to official information.
To be fair he has challenged Sadiq Khan to a public debate about crime in London so I think he will be ready to offer some solutions, unfortunately Khan has declined.
They get information out best they can from freedom of information requests.
The government have promised to do some proper analysis and report on it by the end of the year, we will see what that looks like.
In countries that have been more open migrant crime reporting e.g Sweden, Denmark, the numbers are pretty shocking. I don't see why behaviour would be any different here.
The Future’s Blue!
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Cheers for the correction. The biggest part here is that people are posting these things as facts, to fellow Blues, to advance their position.
That’s why there’s little engagement on here apart from those most vociferous. Why engage with pigeons?
The errors weren't from any FOI requests. That info they got wrong is freely available, via the ONS, from the last census - they even linked to the ONS in the research I saw. They just didn't check it properly, and their figures were 10 or more times as high as they should have been.
The correct data is available - and doesn't support their argument.
ps. The one that Chris Philp was posting overestimated crime by Somalis by 80 times. The figures for Somalis in the CMC report I checked, were about 8 times too high. Those results are so far our, it's almost laughable.
btw. I am not criticising you for believing them. The CMC report I read was very detailed, and gave plenty of sources for the information. It was only by following the actual sources that I could see where they'd gone so, so, badly wrong.
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When the correct data is made available and published at some point , do you think migrants will be over represented in the crime statistics ? If so to what degree ?
bluethrunthru
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19 year old basically doing the dirty work for a 62 year old because the 62 year old knows this risks contempt of court charges