Reform 2025 Limited new name same business

[bluenova]

When the correct data is made available and published at some point , do you think migrants will be over represented in the crime statistics ? If so to what degree ?

The first link I gave you was about foreign born people in prison. The person analysing accepted that the figures for the prisoners were correct, as that's currently available to check. The Home Office already release this information.

The second link I gave, to the CMC report, used FOI requests and they said they received replies from almost all police forces, so I don't doubt that those are correct. I believe it's this data that the Home Office are going to start publishing.

What was wrong in each case, is that they've used the wrong population data - that first report thought there were only 2000 Somalis in the country, so the fact that 250 were in prison was shocking. Of course, 250 out of the actual figure of 178000 isn't quite so damning. That data is currently easily available from the ONS.

So, the correct data for those two stats are already in the public domain, and they are nowhere near as dramatic as the stats you showed. The link I gave about foreign prisoners, even suggests that foreign nationals are LESS likely to be in prison than British people.

 

[Hertzblue]

Yes, but the question was...

When the correct data is made available and published at some point , do you think migrants will be over represented in the crime statistics ? If so to what degree ?

 

[bluenova]

Yes, but the question was...

When the correct data is made available and published at some point , do you think migrants will be over represented in the crime statistics ? If so to what degree ?

I've just told you. The data being released, may give more detail (breakdown of crime etc.), but figures for prisoners is already available, and the figures for overall crimes has been released by individual police forces under FOI requests.

The answer, if we get full breakdowns by crime/country/age etc., is that there will be some areas were migrants are over represented and some where they are under represented. Some nationalities will be over represented and some will be under represented.

The current prisoner stats, suggest that foreign nationals are less likely to be in prison, so at the moment I don't see the evidence for any over representation.

 

[bluethrunthru]

The first link I gave you was about foreign born people in prison. The person analysing accepted that the figures for the prisoners were correct, as that's currently available to check. The Home Office already release this information.

The second link I gave, to the CMC report, used FOI requests and they said they received replies from almost all police forces, so I don't doubt that those are correct. I believe it's this data that the Home Office are going to start publishing.

What was wrong in each case, is that they've used the wrong population data - that first report thought there were only 2000 Somalis in the country, so the fact that 250 were in prison was shocking. Of course, 250 out of the actual figure of 178000 isn't quite so damning. That data is currently easily available from the ONS.

So, the correct data for those two stats are already in the public domain, and they are nowhere near as dramatic as the stats you showed. The link I gave about foreign prisoners, even suggests that foreign nationals are LESS likely to be in prison than British people.

correct - Philp and Jenrick today pushing the same flawed stats too

 

[Hertzblue]

Ok, we will see when we get the information.

 

[west didsblue]

I am willing to bet they will be reasonably accurate

#gullible

 

[Vic]

To be fair he has challenged Sadiq Khan to a public debate about crime in London so I think he will be ready to offer some solutions, unfortunately Khan has declined.

He's not going to debate with people who quote duff statistics.

The time may be right not to allow people to post duff statistics on Bluemoon. Or post misleading propaganda from the Daily Heil.

 

[Hertzblue]

He's not going to debate with people who quote duff statistics.

The time may be right not to allow people to post duff statistics on Bluemoon. Or post misleading propaganda from the Daily Heil.

The Knife crime and phone theft statistics as an example are well publicised, little wonder Khan has no appetite for a debate.

Do you complain about the Mail article as you encouraged others to do ?

 

[Hertzblue]

#gullible

We will resume on that note when we have the data.

 

[Pingu the Penguin]

UK Predictions

Reform landslide if GE was today.

Going to be a rough few years

 

[meltonblue]

He's not going to debate with people who quote duff statistics.

The time may be right not to allow people to post duff statistics on Bluemoon. Or post misleading propaganda from the Daily Heil.

Always had a dilemma with that, I’m erring now more towards they should be removed tbh.

 

[mosssideblue]

UK Predictions

Reform landslide if GE was today.

Going to be a rough few years

Which just shows you how gullible people are

 

[bluenova]

UK Predictions

Reform landslide if GE was today.

Going to be a rough few years

Fortunately it isn't.

Electoral politics is probably more complicated than it has been at any time in the last hundred years - even so, there are plenty of opposition politicians who had bigger leads at this point in a parliament, and didn't go on to win.

We haven't had a single term government since the Second World War, and I wouldn't bet on there being one now.

 

[M18CTID]

UK Predictions

Reform landslide if GE was today.

Going to be a rough few years

I put my constituency in and the prediction is that it would be a Reform gain from Labour. I'd be astonished if that were the case as it's about as safe a Labour seat as you can get

 

[Pingu the Penguin]

Fortunately it isn't.

Electoral politics is probably more complicated than it has been at any time in the last hundred years - even so, there are plenty of opposition politicians who had bigger leads at this point in a parliament, and didn't go on to win.

We haven't had a single term government since the Second World War, and I wouldn't bet on there being one now.

I’m at the “anyone but reform” stage but LAB hasn’t made a significant dent (yet) in the immigration issue and if the Corbyn party gets its act together then it faces a vote split. The tories are dead and the Lib Dem voter base is niche.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I put my constituency in and the prediction is that it would be a Reform gain from Labour. I'd be astonished if that were the case as it's about as safe a Labour seat as you can get

same here - which is why I call bullshit on that web page in as much as in this area there is no organised Reform Party set up - so there is obviously no PPC and in the recent elections there were two paper Reform candidates in 3 parish wards and 16 seats - both looked about 12 and shall we say neither troubled the scorer

 

[bluethrunthru]

Farage and the crims ......

The crimes behind Reform

How I uncovered a network of new crimes involving Nigel Farage's most loyal financier. It could severely damage Farage.

thestateofuk.substack.com

 

[Kippax1973]

UK Predictions

Reform landslide if GE was today.

Going to be a rough few years

Good,, personally I can't fking wait,, this country needs change and in a big way,,, I'm. Sick to fkin death of what's gone b4,,, and will go on for the next 4 years, absolutely fkd off!!!!

 

[bert38]

Good,, personally I can't fking wait,, this country needs change and in a big way,,, I'm. Sick to fkin death of what's gone b4,,, and will go on for the next 4 years, absolutely fkd off!!!!

Good morning Nigel!

 

[M18CTID]

Good,, personally I can't fking wait,, this country needs change and in a big way,,, I'm. Sick to fkin death of what's gone b4,,, and will go on for the next 4 years, absolutely fkd off!!!!

You're entitled to vote for who you want but if you think Farage and Reform are simply going to wave a magic wand and make the country a much better place then I reckon you're more than a tad deluded. Chances are that they'll make it worse but hey ho, you go and knock yourself out ;)