purplenose
Well-Known Member
I think that there is a high level of danger currently of something major kicking off in the short term, long term almost inevitable.
The Cold war was basically a stand off between two super powers which had it come to conflict. It is likely that it would have started as a conventional war, most likely to have focused on central Europe. It is generally accepted that the likely outcome would have been one side or the other would have found themselves on the back foot and esculated the conflict by resorting to battlefield nuclear weapons. This in turn would quickly esculate into a full nuclear exchange. Many military people felt that under attack in central Europe from huge numbers of Russian tanks and aircraft the allies would have been pushed back and would have been the ones to press the first nuclear button. Ironically it was later discovered that the Western Equipment and training was so far superior to the Warsaw Pact it would likely have been the Soviets that would have felt pushed down the nuclear path due to getting a royal kicking.
Had it come to a full nuclear exchange it would pretty much have been the end, I have spoken to many a Vulcan and Victor pilot who actually knew which Soviet city they would be wiping off the planet should the order to go be given. Those lads knew that if it did there was nowhere to send families to give them any realistic hope of long term survival....nowhere, forget the post apocalyptic movies. They themselves would have nowhere to return to after the mission, the United Kingdom would have been totally destroyed in the first few exchanges. Those aircrew were advised to drop their instant sunshine on the target and then just carry on east on hope to find somewhere to land in the far east.
The key there was all sides were in no doubt of the finality of any such confict, it was known as mutually assured destruction.....it worked.
Its still working today to a degree but there are new dangers. The biggest danger of nuclear war now is somebody either backing themselves into or backing themselves into a corner. Almost happened in Syria already when the particularly stupid Turks shot down the Russian jet for allegedly crossing into Turkish airspace, and then to put the tin hat on it Turkish backed rebels shot one of the aircrew on the end of a parachute.
At this point the Russian public could have pushed Putin into a much more severe response than happened. Putin would have been well within his rights to order his airforce to make sure no further F16s attacked his aircraft operating in Syria by going and taking out the airfields from which they could be launched. No question at all thats what NATO would have done. Had Putin taken this course then that would have been an attack on the sovereign land of a NATO state, at which point we would have been well on the way to a major conflict between NATO and Russia.
At the moment Putin is kicking back after Nato have had a couple of decades taking the piss....for example swallowing up former Warsaw pact countries and then deploying military hardware on Russias borders. He is simply joining in with the game of dare that the West has been playing for years.
We are in a very dangerous place right now and largely its the West that is responsible for it. All we need now is a Clinton win next month and any hope of the west having sensible communications with Russia are gone.
As for Russias nuclear drills its all propaganda, now just as back in the 60s 70s and 80s should someone drop a bollock and the button get pressed there would be no survivors, but Putin knows that not since Ronald Reagan has there been a more dangerous president than Clinton and that the danger of someone being stupid is now potentially about to be higher than ever before.
The Cold war was basically a stand off between two super powers which had it come to conflict. It is likely that it would have started as a conventional war, most likely to have focused on central Europe. It is generally accepted that the likely outcome would have been one side or the other would have found themselves on the back foot and esculated the conflict by resorting to battlefield nuclear weapons. This in turn would quickly esculate into a full nuclear exchange. Many military people felt that under attack in central Europe from huge numbers of Russian tanks and aircraft the allies would have been pushed back and would have been the ones to press the first nuclear button. Ironically it was later discovered that the Western Equipment and training was so far superior to the Warsaw Pact it would likely have been the Soviets that would have felt pushed down the nuclear path due to getting a royal kicking.
Had it come to a full nuclear exchange it would pretty much have been the end, I have spoken to many a Vulcan and Victor pilot who actually knew which Soviet city they would be wiping off the planet should the order to go be given. Those lads knew that if it did there was nowhere to send families to give them any realistic hope of long term survival....nowhere, forget the post apocalyptic movies. They themselves would have nowhere to return to after the mission, the United Kingdom would have been totally destroyed in the first few exchanges. Those aircrew were advised to drop their instant sunshine on the target and then just carry on east on hope to find somewhere to land in the far east.
The key there was all sides were in no doubt of the finality of any such confict, it was known as mutually assured destruction.....it worked.
Its still working today to a degree but there are new dangers. The biggest danger of nuclear war now is somebody either backing themselves into or backing themselves into a corner. Almost happened in Syria already when the particularly stupid Turks shot down the Russian jet for allegedly crossing into Turkish airspace, and then to put the tin hat on it Turkish backed rebels shot one of the aircrew on the end of a parachute.
At this point the Russian public could have pushed Putin into a much more severe response than happened. Putin would have been well within his rights to order his airforce to make sure no further F16s attacked his aircraft operating in Syria by going and taking out the airfields from which they could be launched. No question at all thats what NATO would have done. Had Putin taken this course then that would have been an attack on the sovereign land of a NATO state, at which point we would have been well on the way to a major conflict between NATO and Russia.
At the moment Putin is kicking back after Nato have had a couple of decades taking the piss....for example swallowing up former Warsaw pact countries and then deploying military hardware on Russias borders. He is simply joining in with the game of dare that the West has been playing for years.
We are in a very dangerous place right now and largely its the West that is responsible for it. All we need now is a Clinton win next month and any hope of the west having sensible communications with Russia are gone.
As for Russias nuclear drills its all propaganda, now just as back in the 60s 70s and 80s should someone drop a bollock and the button get pressed there would be no survivors, but Putin knows that not since Ronald Reagan has there been a more dangerous president than Clinton and that the danger of someone being stupid is now potentially about to be higher than ever before.
