Russian invasion of Ukraine

[aguero93:20]

It’s far more likely it was a mistake, either through the incompetence of Russia or it being a missile shot off target, than them deliberately wanting to land it in Poland.

It will probably lead to triggering article 4 by NATO. However mad you think Putin is, triggering NATO into more support for Ukraine is the absolute last thing he’d have wanted.

Interesting timeline of reports coming in.

Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller has confirmed that there was an explosion that killed two Polish citizens, Reuters news agency reports.

Poland is raising the readiness of its military units, he says, and "verifying if we need to activate Nato Article Four".

That article says: "The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855

Personally I'm glad they're not mentioning article 5 so far.

 

[andyhinch]

I'd say she could make me laugh for 10 years but I probably wouldn't be seeing the bright side of life when my wife stabbed me in my sleep :)

Wives can be like that I’m told.

 

[meltonblue]

Personally I'm glad they're not mentioning article 5 so far.

As horrific as it is, it’s nowhere near a big enough incident to do that

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Posters are saying it might have been a mistake, he knows exactly what he is doing trying to provoke Nato he's a fucking madman

But you don’t know that for sure at the moment. It might prove to be the case. Who knows. Certainly not any of us.

 

[aguero93:20]

Wives can be like that I’m told.

Especially when they're 8 months+ pregnant. Best thing to do is keep the kids out of the way and keep your fucking head down. Having an aul 'man cave' is a great help too.

 

[aguero93:20]

As horrific as it is, it’s nowhere near a big enough incident to do that

Took less to kick off both world wars, although admittedly we'd no nukes then.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Russia will expect a response. It needs to be pitched right and be proportionate or it could either make NATO look weak or cause an escalation.

If it is proven to be Russian missiles that were deliberately flown there and exploded there then I’m sure there will be a response of sorts but it likely to be just more military support. America will have the answers I would assume but it’s hard to say after 4 hrs or whatever it is. Stock Markets are calm tonight so there won’t be any major escalation over this I wouldn’t have thought.

 

[metalblue]

What would he get from provoking nato though???

If he can deny it was deliberate he can see if he can create a split in NATO. Everything Russia has done to energy supplies (turning off gas for example) has been to try and create fractures in the wests support for Ukraine.

He doesn’t have the stones for being upfront

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Unlike you, they are saying they don’t know what happened.

 

[jim tolmies perm]

Of course they are, and to make a point during the G20, but it doesn't mean they intended to hit Poland.

There are no strategic targets anywhere near that border region apparently and even Lviv is hundreds of km away. Good grounds maybe for provocation masquerading under plausible deniability.