Russian invasion of Ukraine

Gorton_Tubster said:
The trigger for the war was Ukraine attempting/declaring to sign up to nato though want it? Donbass etc themselves didn't want to. It was a schism between the people in the east of Ukraine and the people in the west of Ukraine... from what iv read looking at background news articles from 2014 onwards anyway.

But tbh I thought the Finland joining nato thing was evidence that putin has quite royally fucked up the political landscape for his country and the surrounding countries. I don't think he wants to make anything of it because the rotw (and more importantly those around him) would tell him it's your fkin fault.. I dont think he wants to highlight it.

Just my opinion though based on what iv read.
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The trigger for this war for me has always been that putin will never accept Ukraine on its' doorstep as a Westward/EU looking country with democracy at the heart of its governance, especially one as historically important and integrated to russia through family, trade and history. Ukraine also has vast mineral reserves especially in the east of the country and significant gas deposits (nowhere near as much as russia though) as well as most of the russian pipelines going through the country, Crimea reverting back to Ukraine would be understandably difficult for putin on many levels though.

How does putin explain to his citizens in 5 to 10 years time that their most significant former soviet neighbour has a much higher standard of living than them, have freedom of speech and are actually allowed to vote out a president the public don't like. Even that prick knows Ukraine would just want to assure their future security through NATO membership, I don't believe anyone at the top table in russia seriously entertains the idea that NATO have future designs on russia.
 
AlgarveBlu said:
The trigger for this war for me has always been that putin will never accept Ukraine on its' doorstep as a Westward/EU looking country with democracy at the heart of its governance, especially one as historically important and integrated to russia through family, trade and history. Ukraine also has vast mineral reserves especially in the east of the country and significant gas deposits (nowhere near as much as russia though) as well as most of the russian pipelines going through the country, Crimea reverting back to Ukraine would be understandably difficult for putin on many levels though.

How does putin explain to his citizens in 5 to 10 years time that their most significant former soviet neighbour has a much higher standard of living than them, have freedom of speech and are actually allowed to vote out a president the public don't like. Even that prick knows Ukraine would just want to assure their future security through NATO membership, I don't believe anyone at the top table in russia seriously entertains the idea that NATO have future designs on russia.
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Excellent post as usual.
Looking at a couple of previous posts I think this nails it pretty well.
One of the major concerns also was that Russia was effectively renting Sevastopol port from Ukraine and this became a major concern when the latter eyes starting looking West.
 
AlgarveBlu said:
The trigger for this war for me has always been that putin will never accept Ukraine on its' doorstep as a Westward/EU looking country with democracy at the heart of its governance, especially one as historically important and integrated to russia through family, trade and history. Ukraine also has vast mineral reserves especially in the east of the country and significant gas deposits (nowhere near as much as russia though) as well as most of the russian pipelines going through the country, Crimea reverting back to Ukraine would be understandably difficult for putin on many levels though.

How does putin explain to his citizens in 5 to 10 years time that their most significant former soviet neighbour has a much higher standard of living than them, have freedom of speech and are actually allowed to vote out a president the public don't like. Even that prick knows Ukraine would just want to assure their future security through NATO membership, I don't believe anyone at the top table in russia seriously entertains the idea that NATO have future designs on russia.
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Spot on. The notion that NATO, or any NATO member has any inclination to invade (and presumably conquer) Russia is completely absurd. It has to be a virtually impossible undertaking against the backdrop of Russia possessing a huge nuclear arsenal (some of which probably work). Even if you managed to invade up to Moscow, holding territory would surely be completely impractical. It’s an absolutely ridiculous notion in the modern ere of guerrilla warfare, technology and widespread firearms ownership. It was hard enough in 1812 and 1943 but it would be even harder now.

Ukraine has unquestionably been proven correct in its aspiration to join NATO, especially against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression towards other satellite states, such as Georgia, or its own federations, such as Chechnya. If Ukraine had been part of NATO there is no way they would have been invaded last February, but they were. Russia is a big bully that has become emboldened in recent years because it is awash with fossil fuels, and there is no point negotiating with a bully, especially one that breaks international agreements so readily.

The West simply has to see this through.
 
AlgarveBlu said:
The trigger for this war for me has always been that putin will never accept Ukraine on its' doorstep as a Westward/EU looking country with democracy at the heart of its governance, especially one as historically important and integrated to russia through family, trade and history. Ukraine also has vast mineral reserves especially in the east of the country and significant gas deposits (nowhere near as much as russia though) as well as most of the russian pipelines going through the country, Crimea reverting back to Ukraine would be understandably difficult for putin on many levels though.

How does putin explain to his citizens in 5 to 10 years time that their most significant former soviet neighbour has a much higher standard of living than them, have freedom of speech and are actually allowed to vote out a president the public don't like. Even that prick knows Ukraine would just want to assure their future security through NATO membership, I don't believe anyone at the top table in russia seriously entertains the idea that NATO have future designs on russia.
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Totally agreed on the bottom line which is resources. But yes having a country on your doorstep with nukes pointed at you is quite an existential threat I think, I'm not sure América or China, or anyone would want that (the fact they're all over the world on submarines anyway sorry if negates that anyway imo).

And to that end he told his people they were fighting against Nazis, invoking the 2nd ww efforts against Germany, get the country on side. I personally don't think they have used nato expansion solely as a reason to get the country on side.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Spot on. The notion that NATO, or any NATO member has any inclination to invade (and presumably conquer) Russia is completely absurd. It has to be a virtually impossible undertaking against the backdrop of Russia possessing a huge nuclear arsenal (some of which probably work). Even if you managed to invade up to Moscow, holding territory would surely be completely impractical. It’s an absolutely ridiculous notion in the modern ere of guerrilla warfare, technology and widespread firearms ownership. It was hard enough in 1812 and 1943 but it would be even harder now.

Ukraine has unquestionably been proven correct in its aspiration to join NATO, especially against the backdrop of Russia’s aggression towards other satellite states, such as Georgia, or its own federations, such as Chechnya. If Ukraine had been part of NATO there is no way they would have been invaded last February, but they were. Russia is a big bully that has become emboldened in recent years because it is awash with fossil fuels, and there is no point negotiating with a bully, especially one that breaks international agreements so readily.

The West simply has to see this through.
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Very good summation of where we are and the importance of staying the course.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
If Ukraine had been part of NATO there is no way they would have been invaded last February,
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They were "invaded" in 2014, it was just an attempted (and failed miserably, thankfully) full take over in Feb.

Let's hope the next major event, is them getting pushed back to their own border.
 
IMO the drivers of the war were twofold.

Firstly, economic: Putin's kleptocratic economics were reaching the end of the road as Russia fell further and further behind, and the corruption of him and his cronies became more and more obvious. He was previously seen as the rescuer of Russia from the economic chaos at after the collapse of communism but now needed a new reason for the populace to follow him and also to justify suppressing all opposition even further.

A nationalist war was perfect.

Secondly, hubris and isolation. As with all dictators, he came to believe his own propaganda of the strength of Russia and weakness of Ukraine. This was massively worsened by self imposed isolation due to his paranoia over covid, so he never received objective analysis or advice.

Put these together: a disastrous and humiliating defeat on the road to Kyiv.

Now he's betting that he can outlast Western support for Ukraine. We'll see.
 
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Gorton_Tubster said:
The trigger for the war was Ukraine attempting/declaring to sign up to nato though want it? Donbass etc themselves didn't want to. It was a schism between the people in the east of Ukraine and the people in the west of Ukraine... from what iv read looking at background news articles from 2014 onwards anyway.

But tbh I thought the Finland joining nato thing was evidence that putin has quite royally fucked up the political landscape for his country and the surrounding countries. I don't think he wants to make anything of it because the rotw (and more importantly those around him) would tell him it's your fkin fault.. I dont think he wants to highlight it.

Just my opinion though based on what iv read.
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The east—west schism you mention is far too simplistic. In the East the population was by no means entirely pro Russian before the war. Even the Russian speaking Ukrainians were not all pro Russian in terms of who they wanted to govern them.
 
Kyiv doctors in Rivne performed a unique operation on the heart of an 800-gram baby, — city mayor Oleksandr Tretyak. Doctors from the Heart Institute of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine came to the maternity ward with everything necessary to immediately start the operation, save time and avoid stress for the child who did not need to be transported 500 km away. "The operation to close the ductus arteriosus was difficult and required high professionalism and attention from the medical team. But, thanks to their medical skills, the baby successfully underwent surgery and now has every chance for a full life," says Tretyak.


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Heroyam Slava.
 
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