Russian invasion of Ukraine

[CTID1977]

CIA making a video for those russians who want to escape ;]

 

[aguero93:20]

Possibly use the frozen or seized assets from the many oligarchs? Not sure on the legality of this approach though. Should there be a regime change in Russia accompanied by a change in mindset, then as you say a Versaille approach would be counter-productive in the long term.

Already happened to a small extent. But where do you start and stop with that. Many of the oligarch class that had their assets "safely" abroad were opponents of putin and will be vital to any positive movement forward, many are already actively helping Ukraine

 

[BlueAnorak]

There won't be any reparations paid unless we have another Treaty of Versailles scenario and I'd hope lessons have been learned in that regard.
Those looking for revenge should think it through and answer something for themselves - who would be paying those reparations? Would it be putin and his cabal, or would it be the poor and downtrodden of Chechnya and Dagestan?

Sized assets will pay virtually all rebuilding costs

 

[KS55]

Read an interesting theory that these PMC groups are all aligning themselves for the breakdown of the Russian state. Basically corporations preparing to fight for control of assets. Frightening.

The Yeltsin Massive.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Sized assets will pay virtually all rebuilding costs

Bank of Russia frozen assets,by country....in Dollars....as of 11th April
France 71 Billion
Japan 58 Billion
Germany 55 Billion
USA 38 Billion
UK 26 Billion
Austria 17 Billion
Canada 16 Billion
Total 281 Billion

Oligarch 50 Billion ish.

Total 331 Billion ish

Slava Ukraini.

 

[The Stockport Iniesta]

How will anyone make them pay ? Serious question, sanctions haven't stopped them, even if defeated I don't see how they will be forced to pay up anything, UN are pointless in this.

Can the reported 300 billion dollars in frozen Russian assets in the west not be handed over to Ukraine?

 

[FlemishDuck]

Obviously not wanting to get to ahead of the situation and before any real counteroffensive....but...
I really cannot see any way other than a total anihilation of Rissian troops in UKR territory being acceptable. Taking back both the Donbas and Crimea is a must in order tototally humiliate Putin and ensure leadership/regime change. Without that change I cannot see there being any long term change to the thinking of the population in Russia as a whole. The complete defeat as any sort of offensive force, so that there is a mindset that they have to accept they have to pay reparations to UKR for the damage they have done.
They have levelled towns/cities not to mention the awful cost to "innocent civilllians", not forgetting the war crimes they have carried out.
Without a total defeat will anyone be held to account (pretty much as was the case with the Salisbury/Litvinenko murderes) or any reparations be made?

Forget about reparations, agreements with Russia tends to be exercises in producing worthless paper, as a nuclear power it's easy for them to wipe their arse with it. Even by the stipulations of the Budapest memorandum Russia is clearly violating treaty obligations, they don't care.

When Chechnya had Beaten Russia in the 1st Chechen war, repperations were part of the peace treaty. Russia however never paid a dime, and the fact that Chechnya was so ravaged played a big factor in the Chechen defeat in the second Chechen war. The west will need to help rebuild Ukraine, otherwise much of our efforts now might be for naught.

Granted, the west managed to freeze a lot of Russian assets and capital abroad, it is likely that shall be diverted to help ukraine, it's a fair sum. Beyond that, we mght not expect Russia even nessecarily able to cough up so much after the full effects of economic sanctions have arrived, it's neither that Russia will nessecarily be able to restart trade with many others very fast even if sanctions are lifted.

Total defeat simply means liberating all of Ukraine, i'm prety sure though that the loss of Crimea would be a catastophic loss and embarresment for Putin.

 

[flook]

Already happened to a small extent. But where do you start and stop with that. Many of the oligarch class that had their assets "safely" abroad were opponents of putin and will be vital to any positive movement forward, many are already actively helping Ukraine

I would imagine it would be relatively straightforward to distinguish the Pootin supporters from his opponents, which would seem the ideal starting place.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

 

[aguero93:20]

I would imagine it would be relatively straightforward to distinguish the Pootin supporters from his opponents, which would seem the ideal starting place.

You're more optimistic than me in that regard then.