NEXT PHASE IN THE SOUTH
Ukraine’s General Staff formally announced the capture of Urazhine yesterday afternoon so the question now is where next?
The obvious south bound target is Zavitne, but there won’t be a headlong dash at the village.
Zavitne is considered even by the Russians to be largely untenable - and you know how they have that soviet era need to hold every settlement. The reason it’s so difficult to hold because it lies in a flat open valley with quite steep high ground either side that opens up in an inverted V shape. It’s the high ground the Ukrainians will aim to seize so they can isolate the village in a salient and drive the Russians out without a fight. For once the Russians are aware of the vulnerability, and they may well choose to retreat to the primary trench line south of here and wait, preparing for what must surely come.
There’s been Ukrainian activity east of the current area they control at Urazhine where they know ATGM crews have a stronghold - indeed they captured part of it yesterday which may well lead to more Russian pullouts. However this needed to be removed in order to access the high ground inverted V on the eastern side of Zavitne.
Over at Robotnye the Ukrainian 47th is taking a lot of prisoners - suggesting morale has collapsed in the Russian units facing them. This is an area where the Russians had success with mixing VDV elite and mobiks together. It’s a bit like watering down one to strengthen the other but the median is stronger.
However the VDV troops were already reduced and under strain and I can only speculate that their numbers have dropped significantly and the mobiks just don’t have the will - or the motivation - to fight. It’s an interesting psychology. The VDV troops would have inspired/motivated and even frightened the mobiks, but they would still have lead the fight. Mobiks were likely around 3:1 in the majority. Once the VDV realised they were being used to push cannon fodder it would demotivate them, they still carried most of the fighting but with third rate support from the mobiks, VDV gets killed, mobiks think if he gets killed what chance do we have? So they stop fighting.
If the 47th carries on gaining the 200-500m a day that they are, Robotnye is done by early next week. Another Russian retreat to the trenches is likely.
Russian forces are starting to enter the headless chicken phase.
This where they just run around with no real plan trying to block every hole in the front with fewer and fewer forces, stretching them thinner and thinner.
The whole thing is starting to unravel and it’s becoming obvious now they need to do something to slow things down.
That something should be an organised withdrawal to the trenches.
I’d they don’t do this in an organised and unified way, the trenches as going to be nothing more than a hole in the ground rather than a defence line. Frankly I think they’re past the point of being able to make them as viable as they could have been. I also don’t think they have the experience and command presence to withdraw in an orderly fashion anymore.
There’s no news from Kherson. So much OPSEC is in place the Ukrainians are not saying anything more than we can guess at, past what we think we might know.
The HIMARS struck again at training areas and a small naval facility on the Crimean north west coast.
The spit they hit last time they hit again, the Russians carried on using it the same way - again - and wonder why it gets targeted - again!
And the former head of Ukraine’s occupation force died aged 57 in a hospital in Russia. One year short of the average life span for Russian men. Nobody is saying if it was balconyitis but you can never tell.
Slava Ukraine!
From a telegram group I'm in.
