Russian invasion of Ukraine

FRONTLINE UPDATE

I think it’s important to understand that the weather has been very wet, across almost the entire front line.
That has put a serious damper on the level of fighting in most places.
Bakhnut especially is forecast to have heavy rain most of the day and across the next two, with bright sunshine on the Zaporhizia front followed by more rain over the coming days. Thick mists tend to dominate early mornings and drone operations in mist and cloud are minimal. The mud gets to be very difficult hampering mobility. It also keeps aviation from striking at the front lines.
That being said the Russians seem to be using the ‘wide war’ strategy from the soviet era.
This is a process of continuous attacks on multiple points until one gives out and then they exploit the weakness.
Over the weekend they’ve been attacking the Kupyansk area quite heavily - they suffered heavy losses and appear to have gained nothing.
Bakhmut has also seen Russian pressure but there’s been no movement and no change of holdings.
The railway line that runs from Bakhmut to Avdivka is now very much the centre of operations along that sector. In the northern part the Ukrainiamsmhave pushed past east, and in the Avdivka end of it the Russians keep plugging away trying to push west.
There are unconfirmed by Ukraine reports that they carried out a surprise counter attack down the road towards Krasnahorivka and managed to penetrate 2km into the Russian salient that’s forming the northern pincer of the attack on Avdivka. We need urgent confirmation in this because if true is bad news for the Russians - especially if it makes further progress.
There are claims that ex-miners now in military service are being used by Russia to dig 150-200m tunnels under Ukrainian positions and then mine them. This was a practice often used in WW1 to break open trench defences - indeed for many years a British mine under German forces used 2,000 tons of TNT and was the largest man made explosion ever heard until the 1940’s. You can still visit the site, which also has one of the few sections of preserved front line.
Ukraine never mentions events like this but it doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Just another problem to deal with. It became so common in WW1
troops with listening equipment would be sent into test tunnels to see if they could hear the other side digging.
The real news seems to be out of Kherson with the Ukrainian forces having expanded control around Krynky-Pidstepne, capturing the site of a solar farm.
It’s still heavy with OPSEC but Russian forces are not having an easy time in the area and Ukraine seems to be making continuously small gains day by day.

Slava Ukraini !
The Analyst
 

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