Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":

BATTLES FOR STEPOVE REACH NEW HIGHS

The destruction of another Russian landing ship has to be mentioned as a great way to reinforce the weakness of Russian naval power in the Black Sea, but its military implications are minimal. It’s a headline grabber and an effort to get into the news cycle. Cynical maybe but that the reality of war. It’s just another frontline that has to be defended. Ukraine needs a success to tout and that along with the loss of Russian Su-34’s to SAM defences, now totalling 5 aircraft, goes a long way to proving they can still win in the media. The aircraft losses though are significant and have already had huge impact, as the use of glide bombs has almost stopped.

Meanwhile the battles for the tiny, now pulverised village of Stepove, a crucial part of the northern Avdivka defences, rage on.
All you can see now are the two east-west parallel streets - the houses have been demolished and shelled into rubble and dust. There’s nothing left.
The east end is constantly in the grey zone, with Russians trying to get into trenches at night but being spotted by night vision equipment. They are then shelled, shot or drone-mined to death. By morning corpses litter the area.
Despite constant attempts to try using infantry they repeatedly failed. The latest attempt is to use small numbers of armoured vehicles, maybe a tank and 3 others with a handful of supporting infantry.
The tanks tend to get further in but they too are taken out.
When Russians get anywhere like entrenched the Ukrainians send in a Bradley, to which the Russians have no apparent answer, and use its heavy machine gun to reduce the rubble they hid in to dust. There really is nowhere left to hide and it’s nearly impossible now to claim control or sustain it if you claimed it.
The Russians tried to claim they had stormed the whole village but Ukraine insists that’s simply not true and backs it up with plentiful drone footage to prove it. The number of russian dead per 100m here exceeds even some of the worst Avdivka fighting.

Meanwhile there’s been good news from Sweden and Denmark who are jointly providing more CV-90 IFV’s.
The Baltic states are providing millions of rounds of small arms ammunition.
Yet we all know what matters - US Congressional action. And we’re still weeks away from that.

In Russia the vanished opposition leader Alexei Navalny has been found in a new penal camp in Siberia. That couldn’t sound more Cold War cliche and typically Russian if you tried.
A television news reporter who tried to stand for president on an anti-war footing has now lost her job and been barred from standing because she made ‘hundreds of mistakes in her application form’. Really? How weak a pretext is that? Why do dictators bother with fake elections when everyone knows they’re fake and pointless and who the winner is? When the veneer of democracy seems to matter to the people most inclined to destroy it, it’s a bizarre ritual.
Meanwhile Russian ally Serbia - a candidate for EU membership - please never let that happen - has been racked with demos after a snap election where ballot stuffing and cheating were clearly widespread to keep the current regime in power.
Everywhere the dead hand of Putin can be found manipulating disinformation for his own gains.
We must recognise it for what it is. Russia is eating away at European and American democracy from the inside. Years of disinformation and division have started to pay off. We must be aware and we must keep vigilant against it.

Ukraine must win!
Slava Ukraini !
 


Blinken
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additional ammunition for

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Stinger missiles;
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components of the air defense system;
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additional ammunition for HIMARS;
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155 and 105 mm caliber artillery shells;TOW missiles;
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Javelin and AT-4 systems;
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more than 15 million cartridges for small arms;
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explosive ammunition for clearing obstacles;
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spare parts, medical and other equipment

“Very welcome but Ukraine needs more“
 
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From "The Analyst":

FRONTLINE UPDATE

The northern area of the front continues to face heavy fighting in the forested areas.
Further south but still north of Bakhmut the Russians made a sizeable gain in the past week in front of Terny & Yampolivka. The ground north of the salient has been captured with relative ease suggesting the Ukrainians have decided to shorten their defensive lines in what is a very rural and isolated area with few roads to support front line forces.

Around north western Bakmhut, Russia has made more small gains.
Ukraine has made small gains around the lakes east of Klieshievka, while stopping further Russian advances.
At Andrivka a little south the Ukrainians seem to have made some small gains near the village and rail lines.

At Avdivka, battles around Stepove and the tree lines south of it continue to be incredibly intense. The Russians again seem to have made this a key point they want to take and are simply expending whatever forces needed to get it, in hopes of overwhelming the defence.
Further round the northern frontline of Avdivka, Russia has managed to widen its bridgehead around the water treatment plant, almost doubling the occupied area.

In the long running saga of the Marinka lakes the Russians do finally seem to have gained a substantial advantage. Part of the issue is they have the advantage of short supply lines and again, this relentless manpower expense mode that is so difficult to overcome. The Russians push up the road westward which is much easier from their side than trying to cross-defend the lakes from
Ukraine’s. The water just stops a unified front and the lakes form the axis of the Russian advance.
I think it has to be said that it’s clear which areas Ukraine has less artillery and which areas it’s being used to support, above others seen as less crucial.
General Zaluzhyni admitted the battle for Marinka was now over and the next fight would be for Heorhivka at the end of the lakes.
One key village is Pobeda and its position is now looking difficult.
Ukraine has held it because it has the connection to the primary road to Vuheldar 30km or so south west of it.
Clearly the Russians are being quite strategic - they know if they push the Ukrainians out of Pobeda then the much desired target and thorn in the side at Vuhledar becomes far harder to supply. The area around the front that goes from north-south to east-west is a key area they have long looked to take - but Vuhledar is its lynchpin.

The Robotyne front is not looking at all healthy.
Russian claims are that they have forced a significant spike into the bottom of the front, having launched an attack from their positions in the Surovikin line. If this turns out to be as significant as the Russian side is claiming it is - it’s been quite sudden and has the potential to seriously deflate the salient.
I’ve gone on about the weakness this hard fought gain would become in the winter and that it was mostly indefensible, being surrounded on three sides and lacking any real depth.
Russia has easy access to fire into the salient so there’s just nowhere to hide. All the time Ukraine had the initiative it was one thing, but the tide has turned and the failure of the offensive here has left an awkward and unviable blister the Russians frankly, were obviously going to try and squeeze out. Latest mapping suggests they’ve spiked it.
The thing here is they don’t always have the reserves to back up sudden gains and they run out of steam - especially if the gain was unexpected as this was. We’ll just have to see how it pans out in the next few days.

Around Kherson/Krynky there appears to be fighting but no change.

Overall the Russians have the initiative right now. The going is slow but they have made some very significant gains that bode ill for Ukraine long term. The victory at Marinka is bad. The gains north of Bakhmut have been substantial overall.

CONTINUES (1/2)
CONTINUED (2/2)

The attacks into the summer salient - inevitable they would come and I suspect Ukraine knows it’s indefensible and will probably pull back from the southern lines to shorter, easier to defend positions.
Ukraine is very much on the defensive right now. Russia knows it’s got the upper hand and American intransigence supplying new ammunition and weapons is something they are fully exploiting.
They are doing what any army in their position would do, despite its own weaknesses. It’s about how long Ukraine can hold the line, stop any advances and then, with aid, reverse them. We have to understand the longer this goes on the harder this is going to be.
A tough update. But overall the defences are holding. There’s no collapse, no danger of one. It’s just a hard time.

Slava Ukraini !
 

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