Russian invasion of Ukraine

From "The Analyst":

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

The value of the Russian rouble is falling sharply again, despite an ever decreasing number of trading partners refusing to use it.
Putin’s policy to get it back to under 100 to $1 meant that capital controls forced a false revaluation. Any exporter was forced to repatriate 80% of any money they were paid in foreign currency. They then had to change 90% of those repatriated funds into roubles within 14 days - artificially creating a demand for the roubles and propping its value up.
Add to that, an increase in interest rates to 15% and it held the value.
Yet suddenly in the last few weeks the value is sliding again, and is clearly heading back to the 100:1 value.
It’s not just the USD either, it’s falling against the Euro - now at 101:1. Just to make things worse the Chinese Yuan has gone from 8 roubles to 1 to 13:1 in the past few days.
All of this means Russian imports are costing the country more and more money.
In the space of 2 years the Indian rupee has gone from 1 to 0.65 roubles to the point there is now 1 rupee to 1.13 roubles - another huge fall in value for Russia.
Inflation rates officially in Russia have it rising further to 7.4% - and nobody believes for a second it’s that low in the real world. Food inflation is said to be in 30% band.
The Russians interest rate is now 16% - only economic basket case Argentina and inflation riddled Turkey have higher rates inside the G20 states.
On top of this the Russian Federation is refusing to publish the economic data for January - it’s likely so bad they don’t want it publicly available.
So why is the rouble diving again?
Principal likelihood is Russian companies refusing to repatriate cash by bartering instead. That reduces demand and value.
Almost without a doubt there’s something distorting the Russian economy way beyond its tolerances. Things tend to spin out the tighter controls become. Military spending skyrockets, oil sales failing, gas sales through the floor, economic stagnation when it comes to the internal consumer market, all stand out. Add to that damage to key industries by Ukraine - oil and gas terminals, heavy industrial sites and damage, all cost money and resources to fix that Russia doesn’t have, and also reduce income for Russia from abroad and taxation.
Increasingly the Russian economy is straining at every turn. The cracks are opening up and the pressures are many. Only ending the war can really stop this inevitable demise.
 
From "The Analyst":

RUSSIAN ECONOMIC UPDATE

The value of the Russian rouble is falling sharply again, despite an ever decreasing number of trading partners refusing to use it.
Putin’s policy to get it back to under 100 to $1 meant that capital controls forced a false revaluation. Any exporter was forced to repatriate 80% of any money they were paid in foreign currency. They then had to change 90% of those repatriated funds into roubles within 14 days - artificially creating a demand for the roubles and propping its value up.
Add to that, an increase in interest rates to 15% and it held the value.
Yet suddenly in the last few weeks the value is sliding again, and is clearly heading back to the 100:1 value.
It’s not just the USD either, it’s falling against the Euro - now at 101:1. Just to make things worse the Chinese Yuan has gone from 8 roubles to 1 to 13:1 in the past few days.
All of this means Russian imports are costing the country more and more money.
In the space of 2 years the Indian rupee has gone from 1 to 0.65 roubles to the point there is now 1 rupee to 1.13 roubles - another huge fall in value for Russia.
Inflation rates officially in Russia have it rising further to 7.4% - and nobody believes for a second it’s that low in the real world. Food inflation is said to be in 30% band.
The Russians interest rate is now 16% - only economic basket case Argentina and inflation riddled Turkey have higher rates inside the G20 states.
On top of this the Russian Federation is refusing to publish the economic data for January - it’s likely so bad they don’t want it publicly available.
So why is the rouble diving again?
Principal likelihood is Russian companies refusing to repatriate cash by bartering instead. That reduces demand and value.
Almost without a doubt there’s something distorting the Russian economy way beyond its tolerances. Things tend to spin out the tighter controls become. Military spending skyrockets, oil sales failing, gas sales through the floor, economic stagnation when it comes to the internal consumer market, all stand out. Add to that damage to key industries by Ukraine - oil and gas terminals, heavy industrial sites and damage, all cost money and resources to fix that Russia doesn’t have, and also reduce income for Russia from abroad and taxation.
Increasingly the Russian economy is straining at every turn. The cracks are opening up and the pressures are many. Only ending the war can really stop this inevitable demise.
I'm almost crying for them.










With laughter.
 

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.