Russian invasion of Ukraine

Iassel said:
I mean it never even ‘ravelled’ in the first place

unfortunately this is simply not true, the lines have been at stalemate for months now with the only major change being Russia taking Avdiivka albeit at huge cost.

Again unfortunately not true - they’re still selling as usual to the west via India and the UAE, just at less profit than normal.
Click to expand...

A stalemate with the Ukraine actually proves his army is shot. How long do you think it would last against one of Europe/USA/NATO?
A lot less than it would have before this illegal invasion. His army was once feared. Now it is just laughed at.
This war has cost him.

The oil industry is shot. They cannot refine enough for themselves. They are importing petrol at the moment.
They may be selling oil, but in vastly reduced amounts than pre war. And for a vastly reduce price. Their producing capacity is also greatly reduced due to a shortage of expertise and specialist equipment/parts.
So again a lot less than before this illegal invasion. What once was a golden goose is now a lame duck.
This war has cost him.

Even if he manages to take the whole of the Ukraine, it will continue to cost him and Russia long term.
Remind me again how he is winning?
 
From "The Analyst":

UKRAINE CRUSHES RUSSIAN ASSAULT

The Russians have been persistently trying to reach the Sherevets River as part of their attempts to advance on the key town of Lyman they were driven from in September 2022.
If they can cross the river - which is more of a lake at this point, Lyman will be wide open.
As with so much else in the last couple of weeks, they have been using large amounts of armour, usually carrying an overload of soldiers. They get them as close to their objective as they can and then whoever survives the journey takes control of it and it’s then down to Ukraine to try and remove them while Russia steps up trying to add more soldiers using another armoured column to get them there.
Yesterday the Russians deployed a TOS-1 thermobaric launcher to ensure there was nobody waiting for their troops. Fortunately, Ukrainian drones spotted it, as they have to get close to the front line due to their short range, and it was destroyed before it could do anything.
Russian communications being what they are, failed to inform their advancing column they were heading into an unsuppressed position. What with the mines, ATGM’s, artillery and drone strikes laying in wait, things would soon get nasty.
The Russian column headed by a pair of T-90 assault tanks started to advance.
One of them had a ‘Bolk’ EW jamming device on its turret which had been strapped on to a wooden pallet with ropes, in turn roped on to the tank. Ever professional the Russians!
It didn’t help. The tank was quickly damaged and the crew fled. It was later recovered by the Ukrainians. The other one was soon destroyed - within moments the entire 6 vehicle column attack was obliterated. They clearly had zero discipline as some started to bolt for the exit and some the target, but it did no good.
Over the course of the day several other single tank attacks were crushed - one bizarrely carrying 24 infantrymen standing on every part of it. Another TOS-1 was also found later by night vision drones and eliminated.
Their target in these attacks is the village of Terny on the east bank of the river. Ukraine holds it and doesn’t want to lose it because they have to keep Russia from crossing the river.
Russia managed to create a salient here that pushed right up to the village outskirts, but it’s open and flat and they can be seen coming for over 2km. This latest attack has taken the very same route the last two had. In fact the captured tank was abandoned next to one that had been destroyed in a previous attack. The Russian tactics seem to be even now, just repeat the same thing regardless and eventually you’ll get through. The cost in men and material just doesn’t concern them, as long as they are doing something, however insane.
The attacks are stupefying in their naivety.
Russian drones and artillery seem in short supply here and they have little back up before these attacks and virtually no preparation.
They drive into an area that’s covered by six separate Ukrainian units who have exceptional views of the incoming attacks.
The units the Russians have been using here were transferred from the Kupiansk sector further north. They’re mostly from the 1st Guards Tank Army (once a semi-elite force and much feared when stationed in the DDR during the Cold War), but that reputation was wiped out in 2022.
The question is why so many of these armoured assaults? They’ve been incredibly frequent and mostly disastrous.
It seems they are trying to take advantage of the solid ground before the traditional spring rains turn the area to mud again. They know Ukraine has little artillery and are trying to take advantage of that too. The EW device roped on to the tank (also now in Ukrainian hands), suggests they are aware of the reliance on drones to make up for shells.
The Ukrainians do have the advantage of quality drones and extensive reconnaissance capability which gives them the time to prepare their trap for incoming attacks. Add to that the geography which favours the defence and the slapdash way the Russians behave.

Another good day for Ukraine!
 
fulabeer said:
A stalemate with the Ukraine actually proves his army is shot. How long do you think it would last against one of Europe/USA/NATO?
A lot less than it would have before this illegal invasion. His army was once feared. Now it is just laughed at.
This war has cost him.

The oil industry is shot. They cannot refine enough for themselves. They are importing petrol at the moment.
They may be selling oil, but in vastly reduced amounts than pre war. And for a vastly reduce price. Their producing capacity is also greatly reduced due to a shortage of expertise and specialist equipment/parts.
So again a lot less than before this illegal invasion. What once was a golden goose is now a lame duck.
This war has cost him.

Even if he manages to take the whole of the Ukraine, it will continue to cost him and Russia long term.
Remind me again how he is winning?
Click to expand...

And he made Sweden and Finland finally join NATO after 50 years holding out.

And he made every county in the EU commit massive amounts more GDP to defence spending.
 
❗️
Ukraine has developed a plan for a new counteroffensive, - Zelenskyi in an interview with BILD.
▪️
On possible negotiations: you can agree on everything, but the question is whether Putin will stick to it;
▪️
Russia has more people and more weapons. But if Ukraine will receive weapons from the West, if we continue to increase our own production, it is not about the number of people. It's about the quality of the weapon.
▪️
We are doing everything possible to prevent the Russians from capturing Kharkiv.
▪️
Our partners have certain weapons that we need today to survive. I just don't understand why we don't get these weapons

Any chance of Ukraine receiving the long awaited military hardware, :( ?
 
domalino said:
And he made Sweden and Finland finally join NATO after 50 years holding out.

And he made every county in the EU commit massive amounts more GDP to defence spending.
Click to expand...
Hardly massive. But finally NATO countries are spending the bare minimum on defence. To be frank it should actually be 3% with the current political situation not 2%.
 
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The EU floated concept last month is moving forward. If it happens Ukraine could soon be buying £3bn of aid a year - both military and civilian - from the west.
www.rferl.org

Wider Europe Briefing: The EU Initiative To Send Russian Money To Ukraine

This week I'm drilling down on two big issues: how the EU could transfer profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine -- perhaps as soon as July -- and the challenges NATO faces as it turns 75.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org
 
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